Brisbane got the perfect run a team needs to win a premiership last year: all their top talent firing, a great dose of luck with injuries and strong bout of momentum. Had the Broncos have known how to shut a game down, they would have held aloft the premiership trophy. Alas, they did not and the road back to a decider is not an easy one. Few teams who lose a Grand Final are back the next year and Brisbane have taken some huge hits to their roster with Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler, Kurt Capewell and Keenan Palasia departing. Kevin Walters did a good job bringing the team together but how he handles the disappointment of that GF defeat remains to be seen. All indicators are that the Broncos were overrated by their ladder position last year and with a clearly worse roster, Adam Reynolds a year older and a decided lack of depth, Brisbane look a clear template for a team that will slide in 2024.
Prediction: 14-10 (6th)
Best Bet: Broncos to Miss Top 4 – Will be looking to bet Brisbane to miss the Top 4 when that market hits the public sphere. The Broncos are huge unders across the board and keen to take them on and the best way to do that is to bet the clear second favourites to miss the Top 4.
Player to Watch: Selwyn Cobbo – Cobbo is Brisbane’s most dangerous strike weapon but is shifting to the centres this season to fill the gap left by Herbie Farnworth. How he adapts will be key to how impactful the Broncos attack is.
Top Tryscorer: Ezra Mam ($26) – Mam scored 18 tries in his 25 appearances last year, his first full season in the NRL, and is more than capable of finishing top at huge odds.
Canberra faces a difficult 2024 with a roster bereft of elite talent, particularly in the spine. There is major question marks over three of the four spine positions for the Raiders with Chevy Stewart and Xavier Savage fighting it out for the No.1, Kaeo Weekes taking over the No.6 jersey from the departed Jack Wighton and the hooker position a complete mess. Also of major concern for the Raiders is that they seem to envisage themselves as one of the best eight teams in the competition when in reality they had so much luck in close games last year that they are a legitimate nine-win team who lost their best player. The Raiders have a strong forward pack and will be able to mix it in the middle but with one of the worst backlines in the premiership and no depth, Canberra are a team who will do extremely well if they avoid a bottom two finish.
Prediction: 6-18 (17th)
Best Bet: Canberra Most Losses ($6) – The Raiders imminent fall is very real and they look destined to finish in the bottom four with their first wooden spoon since their inaugural season looming with a team that was probably a bottom five team last year and has lost their best player.
Player to Watch: Kaeo Weekes – Weekes has only 12 games under his belt but is set to start in the Raiders No.6 as the replacement for Jack Wighton. They are big boots to fill and considering the club will be playing a rookie at fullback and have little talent in the spine, Canberra’s hopes will swing on Weekes.
Top Tryscorer: Hudson Young ($67) – Jordan Rapana in 2016-17 is the only Raider to top the club’s tryscoring tally since 2004 so happy to take on Rapana and Matt Timoko. The Raiders don’t project to be a big tryscoring team and Young tied top two years back. He has tallies of 14 and 9 the last two seasons.
Canterbury were arguably the most disappointing team of 2023. After spending big to bring in Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney to join the likes of Matt Burton and Josh Addo-Carr, the Bulldogs finished 15th with just seven wins and conceded a horrific 32.04 points per game. The shameful defence was completely unexpected given Cameron Ciraldo made his bones as a defensive assistant. Stephen Crichton joins the long list of former Panthers at Belmore along with a large list of bit-players, utilities and fringe first graders. There is certainly upside in the Bulldogs but considering this team has not played finals since 2016 and the club went backwards in the first year under Ciraldo, expectations must remain low this year. The players at Belmore have plenty to prove and they need to start proving it before we can positively wager on them.
Prediction: 8-16 (15th)
Best Bet: No Bet – Canterbury are priced up about right in markets. The best play around Canterbury will be the under in season wins if their total comes up around 9.5.
Player to Watch: Matt Burton – Bulldogs five-eighth Matt Burton will be incredibly disappointed with his 2023 where he seemed to take on too much. He will get an opportunity to play a genuine No.6 and with more talent outside him, he needs to rediscover his best.
Top Tryscorer: Stephen Crichton ($6) – Josh Addo-Carr is deservedly short in this with 129 tries in 165 games but at $6 the value is with buy Stephen Crichton, who has 28 tries in his last 47 games and will unquestionably be the strike weapon the Bulldogs use most often.
Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year, particularly in markets related to regular season betting, on the back of being gifted one of the easiest draws of the last decade. Canberra proved last year that a sub-average team can play finals football on the back of a cushy draw and Cronulla this year have been given a similarly easy draw and are a significantly better side. The Sharks have no notable changes from the the team that made the finals last year and they did that missing fullback Will Kennedy for a notable period while also dealing with some poor treatment that knocked Nicho Hynes’ confidence around. The Sharks have a strong roster with talent across the board and depth. With a draw that is 14 wins easier than the second easiest draw (based on opponent wins from 2023), Cronulla look good things to make the Top 8 with the Top 4 and the minor premiership both value plays. It would take an awful run of luck with injury for the Sharks to miss out on finals football with their soft draw.
Prediction: 17-7 (2nd)
Best Bet: Cronulla Top 8 ($1.90) – This might be the bet of the year across any sport. Cronulla have been blessed with an incredibly soft draw, they have continuity with their roster and enough talent to be pushing for the minor premiership let alone fighting for a Top 8 spot.
Player to Watch: Nicho Hynes – The 2022 Dally M Player of the Year endured a difficult season on the back of his mistreatment in the Origin arena by Blues coach Brad Fittler. He is 61-21 in the NRL though and can bounce back this year.
Top Tryscorer: Ronaldo Mulitalo ($1.45) – Mulitalo has been the Sharks top tryscorer each of the last two years. With 65 tries in 87 games and double digit tries in four straight seasons, he just needs to avoid injury to take the honours for a third consecutive year.
The Dolphins have done a remarkable job building a competitive team so quickly and after a very good debut season, they should find themselves in a battle for a Top 8 berth this season. The Dolphins have recruited as well as any team. Their clear weakness last season was at centre and they have upgraded there with Dally M Centre of the Year Herbie Farnworth and Bulldogs top tryscorer Jake Averillo while Australian prop Tom Flegler adds even more starch up front. The Dolphins were a better team than their 9-15 record suggested last year and Wayne Bennett is the master of getting the best out of a team. The key to the Dolphins season is early where they leave Queensland just once in the opening 11 weeks. If they get through that with seven or more wins, they are finals bound.
Prediction: 13-11 (8th)
Best Bet: Dolphins Top 8 ($3.75) – No team has recruited better this year than the Dolphins and with Bennett in charge for the final time, the Dolphins shape as a team good enough to play finals football.
Player to Watch: Tom Gilbert – Gilbert missed the second half of last season and it told as the Dolphins faded badly. A brutal defender and strong ball runner, he has the ability to emerge as one of the best forwards in the game.
Top Tryscorer: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow ($10) – The Hammer scored 15 tries last season and with his elite speed looks a good bet to finish ahead of Jamayne Isaako, who has been priced on his 24 last season and not his 27 in 88 games prior.
The Titans are up against it in 2024 despite their big offseason splash being the signing of Des Hasler. Hasler has taken teams to five Grand Finals but the most recent was a decade ago and his last stint at Manly as well as his final years at Canterbury hardly inspire confidence. He is at best a push with Justin Holbrook though Holbrook had probably run his race at the Titans by the time he was dismissed. The Gold Coast roster is not an ideal one – they have some top-tier talent but it falls off badly after that and none of the elite players play in the spine. Shifting AJ Brimson to centre also looks like a foolish move considering he is an incredibly dangerous playmaker. Gold Coast finished 9-15 last year and they are staring down the barrel of a similar finish in 2024 thanks to being handed the most brutal of draws.
Prediction: 9-15 (13th)
Best Bet: No Bet – The Titans aren’t making the eight with their brutal draw but there is not a lot of value about them missing out.
Player to Watch: David Fifita – Behemoth backrower David Fifita has been very poor since shifting to the Titans despite some flashes of brilliance. Des Hasler needs to find the key to unlocking Fifita if the Titans hold any hope this season.
Top Tryscorer: Alofiana Khan-Pereira ($1.45) – Khan-Pereira is arguably the fastest player in the NRL with the flyer scoring 20 tries in his debut year. If he stays healthy he will win the Titans top tryscorer market easily.
Manly
Two stats that should send Manly fans into a cold sweat heading into the 2024 season. Over the last four seasons, Tom Trbojevic has missed 56 of a possible 109 games due to injury. And coach Anthony Seibold has won just 25 of his 62 games since leaving South Sydney. Manly’s best player is always injured and their coach has shown no ability to win at the top level. Throw in a very poor recruitment class and the second most difficult draw of any team in the competition, Manly certainly don’t shape as a team that will be improving. The Sea Eagles need a lot to go right in 2024 for them to play finals – and it looks too much.
Prediction: 10-14 (11th)
Best Bet: No Bet – Will be looking to bet under Manly wins when season win totals come out if the number is 10.5 or higher and based on Top 8 odds that number will likely be higher.
Player to Watch: Luke Brooks -. Much-maligned during his time at the Tigers for taking big cheques and failing to get results, he gets an opportunity to prove himself as a second banana. If he is a bust here it will hurt Manly and hurt them bad.
Top Tryscorer: Jason Saab ($1.75) – Saab is a nice bet here even at odds-on. He has a great strke rate with 51 tries in 69 games, the other wing spot is in flux and the second favourite Tom Trbojevic misses around 62% of games.
Melbourne enter the 2024 season as a severely underrated proposition. They sit on the fifth line of betting with not a lot of respect being shown to a club that has been at the top of the premiership for a very long team. While this is certainly not the Storm team of Smith/Slater/Cronk, this team still has one of the best spines in the NRL when Papenhuyzen, Munster, Hughes and Grant are all fit and firing. The Storm have a difficult draw and no team has less depth but assuming the spine stays healthy, Craig Bellamy is still at the helm and Melbourne are a team that knows how to win. They are not on the level of Penrith but they are on that next tier of teams. Melbourne have at least one more rodeo in them.
Prediction: 16-8 (3rd)
Best Bet: Melbourne Top 4 ($2.80) – The Storm have made the Top 4 in 15 of the last 18 seasons and even though they endured a difficult 2023, they still finished third on the ladder and had plenty of excuses with Ryan Papenhuyzen barely playing. They are clearly one of the four best teams.
Player to Watch: Ryan Papenhuyzen – Livewire fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen has played just six games since Round 9 of the 2022 season. He is a beloved figure and one of the best players in the competition. The Storm need him flying.
Top Tryscorer: Ryan Papenhuyzen ($11) – Papenhuyzen is a truly elite tryscorer at his best, scoring 46 tries in 53 games when he has started. This is a huge price though obviously comes with some health-related risk given his recent injury history.
Taking on teams that finish a season in unexpectedly red-hot form is usually a wise angle and that is what we have here. Whatever way you dice it, the Knights were not the fifth best team in 2023. They were a week away from sacking coach Adam O’Brien before unexpectedly catching fire. It was lightning in a bottle and that is very hard to replicate. They will also need to do it without top tryscorer Dom Young or quality edge forward Lachlan Fitzgibbon. The halves situation is a mess and is likely to create plenty of instability with four below-average options while roster depth is a major issue. The Knights had a great run with injury last year and that is hard to replicate two seasons on the trot. Lay the Knights all season.
Prediction: 10-14 (12th)
Best Bet: No Bet – The Knights have been well found as a team to likely fall out of the Top 8 so not a lot of value in that market or to go under their win total.
Player to Watch: Kalyn Ponga – Much like the old Parramatta teams with Jarryd Hayne, the Knights swing on one player and one player only. When Ponga gets hot, he can carve the competition up as he did at the backend of last year. Bringing that form consistently will be his challenge in 2024.
Top Tryscorer: Greg Marzhew ($1.45) – Hulking winger Marzhew scored 22 tries in his 22 games during his first year with the Knights and with no Dom Young on the other flank, he should be leading the Knights in tries.
Andrew Webster became the darling of New Zealand after a stellar debut season as a head coach where he managed to get the best out of a Warriors team that has historically been long on talent and short on results. Webster instilled genuine belief and it showed with an outstanding defensive season. He also managed to find the best out of mercurial players like Shaun Johnson and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, who most thought had seen their best football pass years ago. There is no reason to think that Webster won’t be able to do something similar this year and they are a club that has recruited well, bringing back Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and signing the hardworking Kurt Capewell. They are still a ways off being a genuine title contender but it would be a disappointing year if they weren’t to play finals footy.
Prediction: 13-11 (7th)
Best Bet: New Zealand Top 8 ($1.70) – The Warriors are unlikely to replicate their fairytale run into the Top 4 but they have enough talent on their roster to return to finals football.
Player to Watch: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – The 2018 Dally M Medal winner returns to the NRL after two years in another code and he joins a team that reached the preliminary finals last year. He will play centre and will add plenty of class to an exciting Warriors backline.
Top Tryscorer: Luke Metcalf ($151) – DWZ is way too short in this market at $1.20. He comes off an outstanding year but has not been an historically high tryscorer. The value is with No.6 Luke Metcalf. A player with genuine wheels, he has eight tries in 14 NRL starts.
The pressure is mounting on Cowboys coach Todd Payten to return to finals football this season after a terribly disappointing campaign last year that saw North Queensland finish outside the Top 8 when pegged as one of the prime contenders to tackle Penrith. It is hard to see much changing this year though. They have been virtually inactive in the player market, meaning they are sticking with Chad Townsend as their No.7. That is a huge concern. While there is some quality talent on the roster, it does not fit together all that well and there just doesn’t appear to be much upside. An easy draw helps but after having the best injury toll of any club last year, the Cowboys just don’t seem to have any scope for improvement.
Prediction: 12-12 (10th)
Best Bet: No Bet – The Cowboys are a bang-on average team who look set to be in finals contention for a lot of the season without challenging for a Top 4 berth.
Player to Watch: Jeremiah Nanai – Nanai had an outstanding debut season but struggled in his sophomore campaign with injury and some very poor defence. Needs to rediscover his rookie form.
Top Tryscorer: Zac Laybutt ($67) – The Cowboys top try betting is an open race this season with Holmes suspended early in the year, Feldt and Valemei no morals to win spots and Taulagi not a renowned tryscorer. Taking a shot with Zac Laybutt, who can win a centre spot early and has three tries in his four NRL appearances.
The Eels are stuck in purgatory. After making an unlikely – and arguably undeserved – Grand Final appearance in 2022, Parramatta missed the finals in what was a mostly unfulfilling season. Now the club can’t quite decide where they are at. They seem to sense deep down that they need a change, that they need to overhaul the roster and perhaps bring in a fresh coach. They can’t pull the trigger though and now the Eels are bound for another season where they will finish just in or just out of the Top 8. Brad Arthur is now the longest tenured coach at one club in the history of the competition to not win a premiership there, beating out former Eels boss Brian Smith. The roster is full of good players being paid as great ones and underachieving youngsters but they don’t want to change it because they did very little in the market. Parramatta are the definition of blah this year.
Prediction: 12-12 (9th)
Best Bet: No Bet – Parramatta are too much of a middling team to find any worthy futures bet on them in 2024.
Player to Watch: Dylan Brown – We know what we are getting out of Gutherson and Moses. If the Eels are to improve, it needs to be on the back of elusive No.6 Dylan Brown, who has plenty of class but needs to bring it all together.
Top Tryscorer: Maika Sivo ($1.20) – Sivo has topped the Eels tryscoring tally in four of the last five years and with 87 tires in 103 games, he is the only way to bet this market.
We are looking at one of the greatest dynasties in the great and glorious history of this premiership and there is no reason to think that it will be ending this year. The Panthers have survived the loss of big contributors and Stephen Crichton joins the list this year. While he will be missed, the Panthers have plenty of talent ready to step in with Taylan May likely to take his spot. In terms of talent, only the Roosters come close. The difference with the Panthers is that they know how to get it done, as they have the last three years. From a betting point of view, their premiership and minor premiership odds are astonishingly good with the impending departure of Jarome Luai likely to provide motivation for a tilt at a fourth straight. Penrith are not a team to take on this year.
Prediction: 19-5 (1st)
Best Bet: Penrith to Win Regular Season ($3.00) – Penrith have won the minor premiership three of the last four years and have a regular season record of 77-14-1 over that time. They are not in for a dramatic fall this year.
Player to Watch: Nathan Cleary – We are witnessing one of the greats in action with Cleary. While he is known more for his Cameron Smith-esque consistent and relentless greatness, he showed in the second half of last year’s Grand Final his dynamic brilliance. Where Cleary goes, Penrith goes.
Top Tryscorer: Taylan May ($11) – May topped Penrith’s tryscoring tally in 2022, his only year in first grade. He may shift into the centres this year but there is a chance he gets a wing spot and with his speed will be right in the mix at a big price.
The Dragons are widely considered to have the worst roster in the NRL and while that may be true, they don’t look a team that will let the backside fall out of the club and claim the wooden spoon. On paper the Saints are bad but a combination of veteran players and Shane Flanagan can see them win more games than forecast. Flanagan is a coach renowned for working his team very hard and he built a strong reputation as a coach who could get the most out of limited rosters. He is on a strong recruitment drive too, knowing he needs more talent. The halves are a worry, as is hooker, and there is not a lot of depth in a team that managed just five wins last year but most indicators suggest the Saints were better than a five-win team and one that should improve with the coaching change.
Prediction: 9-15 (14th)
Best Bet: No Bet – Though when season win totals open they are likely to be a very good over bet if the line is around the 6.5 quote as the wooden spoon favourites are not the worst team in the premiership.
Player to Watch: Tyrell Sloan – The mercurial fullback never had the trust of former coach Anthony Griffin and never attained any confidence under him but with a new regime, his undoubted talent could well be unlocked.
Top Tryscorer: Zac Lomax ($7.50) – Zac Lomax is being shifted to the wing so should see his tryscoring rate increase while it is unclear how much rope Mikaele Ravalawa and his poor defensive reads will be given under new coach Shane Flanagan.
It was truly astonishing that South Sydney managed to miss the finals last year. The Rabbitohs actually shortened into title favouritism just prior to Origin as they neared the top of the table. It was an incredible collapse to miss out. There was certainly some division in the camp with Sam Burgess quitting as a result. Lachlan Ilias clearly didn’t live up to expectations at halfback. Jason Demetriou has his work cut out to bring the team back together but adding Jack Wighton to an already talented roster should see Souths return to finals football. Injuries have hit hard though in the preseason with Campbell Graham and Tyrone Munro set for extended stints on the sideline. The Bunnies are a well-run organisation and they are full of talent but there are some notable weak points that can bring them undone. A Top 8 finish looks on the cards though they still seem a way off the title.
Prediction: 14-10 (5th)
Best Bet: South Sydney Top 8 ($1.25) – This is no spoil but it is hard to envision a team as talented as South Sydney missing the finals two years straight.
Player to Watch: Cody Walker – Walker’s form was well down in 2023, particularly over the backend. With an inexperienced and below average halfback, Walker really needs to take the Bunnies team and make them his own.
Top Tryscorer: Alex Johnston ($1.20) – The greatest tryscorer of our generation, Johnston has topped the South Sydney try tally in eight of the last 10 years including the last four. Across the last four seasons he has scored a remarkable 104 tries. Nobody is getting close to him.
If there is one team that is built to take it to Penrith this year, it is the Sydney Roosters. The Chooks have a roster brimming with talent. Adding Dom Young and Spencer Leniu has left them with an embarrassment of riches with players as talented as Egan Butcher, Angus Crichton and Sandon Smith all potentially looking at starts in the NSW Cup this year. The biggest question around the Roosters is not whether they have the talent but how that talent is used. The Roosters underachieved last year. They underachieved the year prior. Trent Robinson needs to clean up the attack, give the team more of an identity and let his forward pack run rampant. Sticking with Sam Walker is a must, as is putting more of a leash on James Tedesco, giving time and space to the outside backs. If it all clicks, the Roosters can go all the way.
Prediction: 15-9 (4th)
Best Bet: Sydney Roosters Win Premiership ($9) – The Roosters have the talent and the coaching to win it all and end Penrith’s incredible run. On the back of some astute recruitment, the Roosters can win it all.
Player to Watch: James Tedesco – Tedesco remains an elite fullback but he has lost a step so needs to change his game to stop hampering his outside men as he did last year. That is the key to unlocking the talented Roosters backline.
Top Tryscorer: Daniel Tupou ($3.50) – Recruit Dom Young is all the rage in betting here but Tupou is very backable. He has double digit tries in 10 of the last 11 seasons and has proven incredibly durable, a key element to a bet like this.
The medium term future of the Tigers is looking much brighter with the previous administration unceremoniously dumped and replaced by the experienced Shane Richardson and his crew. It has allowed coach Benji Marshall to get a clear runway and it has seen Jarome Luai agree to join the club in 2025. That does not necessarily mean great things heading into 2024. The Tigers have precious little talent, particularly in the backs, and almost no depth. They will be relying on their tough pack to carry them a long way. They had a poor record in close games last year and had plenty of injuries so do have some scope for improvement but this is not a team ready to burst free of the bottom four.
Prediction: 7-16 (16th)
Best Bet: Wests Tigers Most Losses ($3.75) – The Tigers have claimed the last two wooden spoons and even though the club is on an upward trajectory, they have a long road ahead.
Player to Watch: Lachlan Galvin – Talented young halfback Lachlan Galvin is unlikely to start the season but is regarded as the club’s long-term halfback so will likely be blooded at some point in 2024.
Top Tryscorer: Justin Olam ($15) – Former Storm centre Justin Olam debuts with the Tigers this year and is big odds to top the tryscoring tally. He posted double digit tries from 2020 to 2022 and will be more of a feature of the Tigers attack.