AFL Draft: Best value key positions ranked.

AFL Draft: Best value key positions ranked.

GuyWhoLikesSport

The next revolution when it comes to talking about footy, I think, is the positional value discussion.

Because of the way that the draft works, there is necessarily an opportunity cost discussion that has to be had. If two players are relatively even according to your scouts and evaluators, the deciding factor surely has to be which position is more valuable/harder to come by.

So leading into the tonight’s AFL Draft, I’m going to rank each of the positions on the ground by pure positional value, from the perspective of the drafting team.

This isn’t going to be a discussion of whether the left back pocket or right back pocket is more important, instead, I’ll rank the seven archetypal positions on the ground.

Of course, the AFL draft is heavily compromised and there will occasionally be preternaturally talented players like Nick Daicos who are undeniable, but I think this is still a useful exercise when looking at your team’s draft and seeing how they spent draft capital.

 (1) Big bodied forward half midfielder  

Have you heard that Marcus Bontempelli is the same size as Wayne Carey? Hard to believe but it’s true.

Ironically, in a lot of ways, the players of that Bontempelli/Petracca/De Goey types are the new key forwards.

There is a huge opportunity cost to get them (each of the players listed was taken with a top 5 pick), but if they work out they can set you up for premiership glory (each has won a premiership in the last 7 years).

It started with Dustin Martin playing a “striker” role during the Tiger dynasty, but now virtually all the good teams have a player like Martin or are trying to find one.

It’s like when Die Hard came out, every second action movie after it was “Die Hard on a…”. Like Speed is just Die Hard on a bus.

Jordan De Goey is the purest version of this sort of player since Martin.

Though De Goey is not anywhere near the level of Martin, he’s a pure burst player who is comfortable as a forward and as a midfielder.

Both Bontempelli and Petracca are less comfortable as pure forwards but have played there to some success.

Even still, they are creatures of the forward half, gifted at fashioning goals for themselves or teammates and most effective forward of centre.

Maybe a surprise to some, but in my view if you can find one of these types in the draft you have to take one.

(2) Key Forward  

This might be a surprise. It’s hard to find people that are 200cm in Australia, let alone ones that are coordinated and athletic enough to play AFL footy.

Most people that tall are IT guys who are sick of being asked if they play basketball.

So why are they second? Well, look at the bust rate on key forwards.

Since 2010, here are all of the top 5 picks who have been key forwards and have not worked out, or are threatening not to work out: Jon Patton, Tom Boyd, Paddy McCartin, Josh Schache and Logan McDonald, Sam Darcy.

All of those, bar McDonald, were either picked first or second and Darcy was only pick 2 because of the father/son rule.

The key forwards who have worked out, over that same timeframe are Jack Lukosius (but he has been used everywhere), Max King, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Riley Thilthorpe.

That’s five relative disasters and four either very good or pretty good players. It’s 50/50.

Even looking at the best key forwards in the game today and they were relatively lower picks: Tom Lynch (11), Charlie Curnow (12), Aaron Naughton (9).

It’s hard to project key forward prospects.

If you can find a good one, that is the most valuable position on the ground in my view.

But given the bust rate, the relative value of that big-bodied forward/mid, and the fact that often the premium players drafted to play that position tend to work out because of their size, athleticism and skill, I think that this flip is warranted.

(3) Key defender  

 Key defenders don’t tend to get drafted as highly.  

Again since 2013, we have had Kade Kolodjashnij who was kind of a tweener size, Jacob Weitering, Jack Lukosius (sort of), and Mac Andrew (sort of) drafted inside the top 5 as key defenders. Truthfully, only Weitering is a genuine key defender. 

 So why are they this high?  

 This is a projection pick. 

Currently, teams will often draft a key forward and, if he doesn’t work out as a forward, have the revolutionary idea of playing him as a defender. Usually, it’s a thinly veiled way to delay admitting defeat on a highly drafted player.  

It’s Tony agreeing to buy Carmela the spec house, everyone knows the barely under-the-surface truth of this move. 

Aaron Cadman is, inevitably, about to follow in the footsteps of many fledgling key forwards before him.  

They’re this high because, if you look at the four preliminary finalists, all 4 had star key defenders around which miserly defenses were built. Collingwood had Moore, Brisbane had Andrews, Carlton had Weitering and GWS had Taylor.

If you can find a defender around whom a defensive system can be built, a club is setting itself up for success.  

I wonder if finding players like the four above is the next thing that clubs will be chasing in drafts. 

(4) Inside midfielder  

Inside midfielders are important. There are a lot of them. Two things can be true.  

36 players averaged who played 15 or more games in 2023 averaged 10 or more contested possessions. They came from all over the draft landscape. Matt Rowell, number 6 on the year in contested ball, was the first overall pick.

Jai Newcombe, who averaged 2.5 fewer contested possessions a game, was a mid-season draft pick.  

It’s important for teams to have inside mids, but you can find them around the place.

Spending high draft picks, or giving them massive seven-year contracts, or doing both of those things is not a wise allocation of resources.  

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go to a Kendall Roy at the end of Succession and stare into the abyss as I think about the Hopper and Taranto trades and contracts. 

(5) Hard running ball user (half back/wing/outside mid) 

As the game has opened up through the stand rule and various other changes that AFL house has made that have, in my view, enhanced the watchability of the game, ball use is becoming a more important commodity.  

If you look at how Richmond of 2020 played, they led the AFL in metres gained by 300 metres, bigger than the gap between second and thirteenth that year, but were 12th in disposal efficiency.  

GWS of 2023 who, under Kingsley, play a similar style to the Tiger dynasty, also led footy in metres gained but were 2% more effective with their disposals over the course of the year.

They still weren’t an exceptionally efficient side, but that 2% showed in the surgical way they were able to push the ball forward, often through Lachie Whitfield.  

So why are these guys lower?

There are fewer strings to their bow, many of the true stars are inside/outside players in a way that players of this archetype simply can’t be.

Ball use is as important as ever, if not more so, but footy is a game of what more can you do and unless you’re a key position player, it’s better to have strings to your bow. 

(6) Pressure forward

Pressure is probably the biggest revolution in footy over the last half-decade, so why is the pressure forward so low? You can find them anywhere.

Of the top 5 small forwards by tackles inside 50 per game, only 1 (Kysiah Pickett) was drafted in the top 15 of the AFL draft.

The rest (Toby Bedford, Lachie Shultz, Dan Butler, and Charlie Cameron) were either rookie draftees or drafted after pick 50.

You can find fast guys who are hungry.

(7) Ruckmen

I have given my thoughts on ruckmen ad nauseum. Refer to this article.  

It’s a bit kinder than what Tom Rockliff had to say during the year on the Neds AFL Punting Podcast.