It’s my favourite Spring Carnival program, and we’re off to Caufield on Saturday for 2023 Neds Caulfield Guineas Day!
With races like the Neds Herbert Power, Neds Might And Power and Neds Caulfield Guineas headlining the ten-strong program, there are plenty of opportunities to back a winner and find the value.
You can find all of my thoughts and 2023 Neds Caulfield Guineas Day Tips below.
Open race to begin the day, but I thought it looked a great one for the second-up Kettle Hill.
Kettle Hill returned with a decent effort for fifth, beaten just over a length at Sandown last month, and he boasts a strong second-up record.
Out to the 1700m this week, I can’t find a reason why he won’t be in the finish.
There’s a case to be made for a few of the three-year-old fillies engaged in Race 2 on Neds Caulfield Guineas Day, but Queenslander Appin Girl is going to be the one for me.
Appin Girl has only made three appearances at the races so far, but she won each of her first two, including the Listed Dalrello Stakes, before finishing third in Group 2 company at her latest.
She’s undefeated fresh and this looks a lovely kick-off point.
The Neds Herbert Power is frequently a key Melbourne Cup form indicator, with the likes of Protectionist and Prince Of Arran performing well in both races throughout the last decade.
Carini has looked very good in two starts since arriving in Australia, and he can continue his rise through the grades in this contest.
The Siyouni gelding finished third, beaten a length and a half by Amenable here at Caulfield on debut for Danny O’Brien in August, and flashed late to strike over 1700m at Flemington last time out.
I’m keen to see him over the mile and a half, and he does look to have several of these rivals covered for class.
I’m happy to give Red Card another chance in Group 3 company on Neds Caulfield Guineas Day.
Red Card simply could not have been more impressive in BM88 company at Rosehill first-up from a break, but she failed to justify odds-on favouritism here three weeks ago when returning a rare flat effort.
I’m happy to put a line through the run, and with the benefit of improved fitness and Joao Moreira this week, I think she’ll be right in the finish.
Just eight sprinters are engaged in the Schillaci Stakes, but with a real depth of talent, it truly does loom as a ripper edition of the race.
Asfoora rarely returns a poor performance, and over 1100m at Caulfield, I think she’s going to take a power of beating again.
She wasn’t far from the winner in any of the Oakleigh Plate, The Galaxy and The Quokka in autumn, and she returned this time to win in Group 3 company over this route.
Having been last seen finishing second behind Imperatriz in the Moir Stakes, she steps out this week in peak order and does appear primed to go one better.
Welwal has continued to improve with racing since arriving in Australia, and I think that this is a really nice spring launchpad for him.
The Shalaa gelding first appeared last spring for a crack at The Golden Eagle, but he failed to immediately acclimatize, and he finished down the order.
He was very good in the autumn of this year without recording an elusive win, however, and finished second in races like the Doncaster Prelude and the lucrative The Coast at Gosford.
Over in Europe, he enjoyed a strong fresh record, and we can have an each way play on Neds Caulfield Guineas Day ($6.50 at publish).
Duais has improved with each of three runs back from a spell, and the Neds Might And Power looks a perfect race for her.
The multiple Group 1 winner stripped fitter with a couple of fair efforts at the beginning of this prep, but she hit the line impressively to fill the minors in the Underwood Stakes last time out.
She’s hard fit, will relish the 2000m and takes weight from several key rivals this week.
Nunthorpe has returned to the races an improved galloper this time, and I am keen to stick with her until she gives us a reason not to!
Nunthorpe finished second, beaten just over a half a length in BM70 company first-up this time, but has since recorded consecutive wins over 1400m at this track.
The 1600m should suit at this point of her prep, and key rivals like Barbie’s Fox have drawn into the race horrifically, which adds further confidence.
$3 million goes on the line in the big one, and a couple of rising stars are engaged in this Neds Caulfield Guineas field, including three-time Group 1 winner Militarize and the undefeated Steparty, the latter of whom I am with.
There’s no doubt that this is the hardest task that he has been set, but Steparty has continued to jump as the bar has been raised, and he was absolutely outstanding in the Neds Caulfield Guineas Prelude.
It has been some time since a horse did the Prelude/Guineas double, but I think that this bloke looks to best placed to do so since the turn of the century!
It’s not often that we’re treated to Group 1 racing as the final event of the day, but this Toorak Handicap looks a fitting conclusion to Neds Caulfield Guineas Day!
Perth raider Amelia’s Jewel looks to be the one to beat again – she’s a Group 1 winner, and she’s two from two since arriving in Melbourne, breaking a track record at The Valley last time to boot.
I think she’ll win again, but I am going to select her as the winner in a Same Race Multi and pump up my odds with Feehan Stakes winner Pinstriped running into the Top 3.
Same Race Multi selections:
- 3 Amelia’s Jewel (Win)
- 4 Pinstriped (Top 3)