This Grand Final is fitting.
In a season without a dynasty on foot or a truly dominant team through the regular season, a matchup between the two best teams in an even year for the AFL just feels right.
CANNOT. WAIT.#AFLFinals pic.twitter.com/XAPweUS9Gf
— 7AFL (@7AFL) September 23, 2023
This season has been a movie with a tremendous script, a great story, and actors who are able to deliver the lines well enough.
Season 2023 – 5 stars from Margret, 4.5 stars from David.
It reminds me of what Tarantino will try and do with his new movie The Movie Critic, where he has apparently cast Paul Walter Hauser aka the fat guy from I, Tonya, and BlacKkKlansman as the lead.
There was no Geelong of last year and no DDL in There Will Be Blood.
It was a season where the whole was significantly greater than the sum of its parts.
Collingwood’s ladder-topping percentage this season was 127% and just three teams finished the year with a percentage of over 120% – Collingwood, Brisbane and Melbourne.
That number would be the second worst percentage to top the ladder since 2009 when Gold Coast entered the competition.
However, even that statistic is misleading.
In 2015 Fremantle topped the ladder also with 17 wins and a percentage of 118.7%, but West Coast and Hawthorn who finished second and third that year had percentages of 148.2% and 158.4% respectively.
In 2007, only Geelong had a percentage of over 120% in a season where they won the Grand Final by 119 points.
Port Adelaide fans love this photo.
Fittingly, the closest analogy to this season in the 21st century by ladder and percentage was the 2003 season.
That year Port Adelaide topped the ladder with a percentage of 127.23%. Effectively the same as Collingwood this season.
Back in 2003, there were four teams that had percentages of over 120%, but only three finished in the top 4.
You’ll recall that the Grand Final was also contested by Collingwood and Brisbane in a game won relatively comfortably by the Lions for the third in their historic three-peat.
Beyond percentages, if you look at the premiership metrics of this season you can get further historical context from the premiership indicators this season.
Premiership indicators are an oversimplified but still interesting snapshot of where teams ranked in various statistics.
They’re interesting because each of the last 10 premiers ranked in the top 6 of at least 14 of the 19 statistical categories that make up the premiership indicators.
This is the table for the last 10 premiers.
— Andrew Whelan (@andrew_whelan) August 20, 2023
This year, across the 19 statistical categories, Collingwood had a mean ranking of 5.2 and Brisbane a mean ranking of 5.7. Collingwood’s mean ranking of 5.2 would rank equal second worst among all premiers if they were to win. They would be equal to the Bulldogs.
Brisbane at 5.7 would be the outright second worst premier of the last 10 to only West Coast in 2018.
What do those two premiers have in common? They won one.
None of the above is to shit on the two Grand Finalists.
In a competition where equalization is the goal of the league office above all else, for this year it has really worked.
The swings taken by Melbourne didn’t pay off this year.
Last year’s premier appeared to finally hit a cliff, at least for one season.
The other 2022 Grand Finalist, Sydney, had a down start to the year and never truly recovered.
Port entered the finals series limping and was probably fools’ gold anyway given their leaky defence and extraordinary close game luck.
The game looks to me like a battle of very good.
That should make for a great Grand Final.
Through to our 45th VFL / AFL Grand Final 🖤🤍
How are you feeling? pic.twitter.com/UUXXGGx6AC
— Collingwood FC (@CollingwoodFC) September 22, 2023
The stage is set 🏆 pic.twitter.com/Cz1ODhgrIq
— Brisbane Lions (@brisbanelions) September 24, 2023
A lot of times in boxing the battles of very good are the most exciting fights.
Fights between fighters at the highest levels are almost never barnburners (Chocolatito v Estrada trilogy excluded).
If you think back to Mayweather v Pacquaio, the first two Canelo v GGG fights or even Ward v Kovalev they weren’t wars.
The supercomputer in the elite fighters’ brains won’t let them take on that much risk. The reflexes are too sharp.
The skills are very good.
They’re chess masters playing chess.
As much as I liked The Queen’s Gambit, I’m not that excited about watching chess on Grand Final day.
It also isn’t a Kambosos v Haney-type fight where the elite guy doesn’t even have to get out of second gear to win.
You can think back to last year’s grand final for a football equivalent of those fights.
No, this game could be more of a Charlo v Castano II or Taylor v Prograis.
Two very good combatants at a very high level going to war. Not good enough not to get hit, too good to crumble.
In a season full of good and without any great, the battle of very good in the Grand Final could be the perfect capper to one of the most even, most exciting seasons that I can remember.