The competitiveness of this year’s NRLW season is best highlighted by the two teams who will feature in this Sunday’s grand final.
Premiership heavyweights the Sydney Roosters – listed at less than even money at one stage of the season – are out of the 2023 NRLW title race following an upset loss to the Gold Coast Titans last week.
Far from their best and crippled by injuries, the Roosters had no answer to Karyn Murphy’s Titans last week who produced one of the best finals performances I’ve ever seen across the NRL or NRLW.
And while the Newcastle Knights have also won their way through to the big dance, it was very nearly the Brisbane Broncos who threatened with a late comeback last Sunday.
Throw in the Canberra Raiders and Cronulla Sharks who both looked likely at different points of the season and it’s been a hell of a year for the expanding NRLW competition.
Let’s take a punter’s preview to this Sunday’s grand final and pick out a deciding factor for both Newcastle and the Gold Coast.
Knights Playing For Tamika Upton
It’s been a two-horse race for much of the 2023 NRLW regular season with both Newcastle and Sydney fighting it out for the Minor Premiership.
A win for the Knights over the Chooks in Round 8 saw Newcastle win that race, and they’ve gone on to knock out Brisbane and claim their spot in the big dance this weekend.
Riddled with ill-discipline to begin the season, the Knights have figured out what works for them in season 2023.
Their back five has been ultra-productive for most of the year and has helped the Knights to dominate field position this season.
Newcastle rank third for total kick return metres after 10 games played and it was the efforts of their outside backs last week (combined 543 metres) that helped the Knights run over the top of the Broncos.
By working quickly off their own line early in sets, Newcastle’s middle forwards were allowed to keep fresh in attack.
Four Knights forwards clocked 100+ metres last week as a result and it’s a blueprint for how to approach the Titans on Sunday.
If the Knights can generate momentum in yardage and complete highly (85% completions last week), the opportunities will appear for Tamika Upton to influence the attack.
The talismanic fullback is the best female rugby league player in the world and has consistently turned field position into points this season.
The beauty of Upton is in the variety with which she can challenge the defensive line; active on kick returns, a capable ballplayer down short sides and the best support game in the NRLW, Upton has been everywhere for the Knights in 2023.
She linked nicely with front-rower Caitlan Johnston last week and I’m looking out for this pair again on Sunday.
Johnston is a rugby league handful and her ability to generate either a quick play-the-ball or some second-phase play was a highlight of the Knights attack last week, look for Upton to push up around Johnston on Sunday whenever the big prop gets her hands on the ball.
Upton’s best combination right now though is undoubtedly the one she’s struck up with halfback Jesse Southwell. The young half just 18 years old but has been one of the best playmakers in the NRLW this season.
Her short kicking game in particular has stood out with five forced drop-outs this season and a number of assists coming from the boot.
She’s a willing ball runner and isn’t afraid to risk throwing long to her winger, but as she grows in experience Southwell is learning to wait for cues before pulling the trigger.
She can use her boot to build pressure and win field position before loading up on that Hail Mary pass.
The Knights will enjoy an advantage over the Titans in attack in the sense that they can score from anywhere on the field.
It’s important, however, that they don’t get impatient with the ball in hand while up against one of the best defensive systems we’ve seen in the NRLW.
If they can play the long game and embrace the grind, Upton and Southwell are good enough to find the points late.
The Titans right edge can present Newcastle with some opportunities on Sunday, particularly given that’s where Upton has spent most of her time this season.
Gold Coast’s Middles & Line Defence
They’re the obvious underdogs coming into Sunday’s grand final but I don’t think Karyn Murphy and her Titans will mind.
The old saying goes that defence wins premierships and the Gold Coast have embodied this idea throughout the entirety of the 2023 NRLW season.
The Titans have won six games this year but an average winning margin of just 6.3 points.
Their attack was poor to start the year as teenage halves Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Sienna Lofipo took charge of the team’s attack while five-eighth Taliah Fuimaono was sidelined by injury, but it didn’t matter.
Whatever they lacked in productivity with the ball, the Titans more than made up for with their efforts in defence.
After 10 games played, the Gold Coast average just 12.6 points conceded per game on average – that’s Penrith Panthers areas.
They’ve developed a wonderful defensive system and have the luxury of combinations and cohesions across a line-up that’s hardly changed throughout the regular season.
This is best highlighted by the decision to leave out Fuimaono this week, who is physically ready to go but doesn’t have the runs on the board this year.
So what does this mean for the Titans on Sunday?
Like the Knights, this Titans squad knows what works for them in 2023, they’ll rely on what is the best starting middle trio in the competition to win the ruck and stay competitive in yardage; lock-forward Georgia Hale and props Jessika Elliston and Shannon Mato.
If there was a VB Hard Earned Index in the NRLW, it would be named after Hale.
The workhorse middle forward has completed an absurd 459 tackles this season for just five misses – I’ve never seen these numbers in years of watching rugby league.
She cleans up everything in defence and offers a nice pass option around the ruck to complement the yardage game of Elliston (avg. 132m per game) and Mato (avg. 179m).
As the season’s gone on, these three forwards have been wonderfully supported by the Titans outside backs on kick returns.
Fullback Evania Pelite is playing to her potential right now as one of the best attacking players in the NRLW. With 263 metres last week from a ridiculous 26 carries, the powerful No.1 is peaking at the right time along with wingers Destiny Mino-Sinapati (149m last week) and Karina Brown (110m) and centre Jaime Chapman (125m).
Put all these involvements together and you’ve got a squad who defends their line smartly and works out of their own end even better.
While the Titans don’t have Newcastle’s attacking output, they’ve got the ball carriers to win enough field position and opportunities for Lauren Brown and the Titans attack.
If they can spend enough time on Newcastle’s line, the involvements of Brown, Chapman and Pelite can produce points.
The Gold Coast have spread their points fairly evenly across the field this year with 14 tries down their left edge, 11 through the middle and another 10 on the right.
It’s that left edge through Brown and Chapman though that has been most threatening in the back half of the season and I think it’s where the Titans will look for points in this one.
Like they did against Sydney last week though, it starts with their defence, if the Titans can keep the Knights to less than 18 points, they’ll be in a position to win this game in the final stages.
2023 NRLW Grand Final Tips
Same Game Multi:
- Either Team by 12.5 Points or Less
- Jaime Chapman Anytime Try Scorer
- Abigail Roache Anytime Try Scorer