Just four clubs remain in the 2023 NRLW competition with Week 1 of the finals kicking off on Sunday afternoon.
The Newcastle Knights stole the minor premiership from the Sydney Roosters in NRLW Round 8, meaning they will host the Brisbane Broncos at home while the Chooks meet the Gold Coast Titans at Allianz Stadium.
I’m not so sure the Roosters will mind finishing second given the form the Broncos have displayed in the back half of the regular season.
They’ve figured out what works for them this year and are playing a confident, expansive style of footy.
There are no easy games at this stage of the season but on paper, the Broncos are a more daunting prospect than the Titans right now.
Let’s take a punter’s preview to Week 1 of the NRLW finals series and pick out a deciding factor for each team with the grand final just 70 minutes away.
Let’s eat!
I cannot wait for this one.
The Newcastle Knights and Sydney Roosters have been neck-and-neck this season as the two form teams of the NRLW, and for a while there it looked like daylight between them and the rest of the competition.
Given how the Brisbane Broncos have played themselves into form throughout the back end of the regular season though, this fixture could be anything.
It was frustrating to watch the Broncos to begin the year.
They had the most destructive ball carrier in the NRLW – Mele Hufanga – sitting out on that left edge but failed to play towards her in attack.
That all changed in Round 3 however, when Brisbane made a concerted effort to swing the ball to Hufanga every time they earned a hint of ruck speed.
She cashed in four times in that game as a result and has scored another six tries in her past six games to rush to the top of the tryscorer leader board this season.
Put quite simply, Hufanga is a cheat-code. Get her one-on-one with a defender close to the line and she’ll score every time.
Five-eighth Gayle Broughton took a few games to adjust to playing in the front line, but she’s been integral to getting the best out of Hufanga over the past six weeks.
It’s a recipe for success for the Broncos and it’s undoubtedly where they’ll play most of their footy in this one.
If Destiny Brill and her forward pack can generate some ruck speed or second-phase play, look for Ali Brigginshaw and Broughton to get the ball to Hufanga.
The efforts of Chelsea Lenarduzzi and Mariah Denman will be the catalyst for these actions; both can skittle defenders and leave a player on the ground when playing the ball, allowing Brill to jump out from behind the ruck, compress the line and shift to the spaces.
The Newcastle Knights won’t make it easy for them, though.
They don’t dominate in many key stat areas, but the strength of this Newcastle squad is in its balance.
They’ve got a wonderful forward rotation and strike in the backline on both edges.
Where some teams favour a particular channel in attack, the Knights threaten across the park with 16 tries down their left edge, 11 through the middle and another 14 on the right-hand side this season.
Jesse Southwell is the star half, but she’s been wonderfully supported by UK-import Georgia Roche at five-eighth this year.
Roche is a strong runner of the ball and uses her footwork to engage specific defenders in the line and create space out wide.
Throw in a back-five that is strong in exit sets, one of the craftier dummy-halves in the game in Olivia Higgins and two halves who can straighten the attack and you’ve got a squad perfectly built to complement Tamika Upton in attack.
She’s the best female rugby league player in the world and a perfect example of how knowing what’s coming is very different to defending it.
The Knights know that if they can get through their sets and win the ruck in yardage, Upton will pick the right moments to inject herself in the attack.
She can hit a short side if a defender is slow to peel, she can cart it up around the ruck and she can swing out the back of shape on the edges too.
Wherever Upton goes the points often follow, and she can be the difference in this one.
I mentioned at the top how Sydney might prefer to face the Gold Coast rather than Brisbane in this must-win knockout preliminary final.
In saying that, the Titans too have played themselves into form over the last month.
They scored an average 12.2 points per game over the first five weeks of the season and managed three wins in that time thanks largely to their defence.
Indeed, after nine rounds played the Titans defence ranks third in the NRLW to concede just 14 points per game on average – only the Roosters (13.3 points per game) and Knights (13.2 ppg) defended their line better this season.
By frontloading their efforts without the ball and ensuring their defence systems were sound, the Titans worked their way smartly into the regular season.
Their attack was relatively poor but there were reasons for this; first-choice five-eighth Taliah Fuimaono went down after 47 minutes in Round 1 and hasn’t been seen since, leaving teenage halves Chantay Kiria-Ratu and Sienna Lofipo to control the Titans attack.
This pair did a fair job until Lauren Brown was moved from dummy-half to halfback in Round 6, triggering a four-game win streak where the Titans kicked their scoring average up to 25.8 points per game.
They’ve found what works for them and are playing to their strengths more consistently in attack.
Left centre Jaime Chapman was hardly used in the first half of the season as she missed games with injury, but has scored six tries in her last four games thanks to the work of Brown at halfback.
So too Evania Pelite, who is the most damaging fullback in the NRLW when used the right way; three tries, one assist and an average 188.5 running metres from her last four games is testament to this.
The Titans have improved every week this season and are peaking at the right time.
They’ve got a wonderful middle-forward rotation and can be competitive in yardage against a stacked Roosters pack in this one. From there, the involvements of Brown can help to bring Chapman and Pelite into the attack.
For the Roosters, their biggest concern is themselves.
When they hold the ball and complete their sets, no other squad in the NRLW right now can go with them. However, by playing with the second-worst completion rate (72%) in the competition and giving away 5.4 penalties per game (fourth-most), the Roosters have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot this season.
By tidying up their discipline in this one, Sydney can win half the battle before even troubling the scoreboard.
There are points everywhere in this Roosters line up but I’m looking at their left edge on Sunday afternoon.
Tarryn Aiken has been the form playmaker in the NRLW this year and her combination with Otesa Pule and Isabelle Kelly can trouble a Titans right-edge that has conceded 12 tries this year.
It starts with their middle, though. Keeley Davis is arguably the best hooker in the game and her ability to hold up the markers and bring a teammate onto the ball can help Easts generate momentum in a set.
From there, Davis’ job is to get Aiken over the advantage at a retreating defence.
With a pass, kick or run option, Aiken has the tool kit to pull apart the Titans on the edges, but she’ll need some ruck speed to do it.