The penultimate round of the 2023 NRL season is upon us, and you’d need to be a Nostradamus to know how these two games are going to play out.
Listed at $1.18 as of Monday morning, the Penrith Panthers must be one of the shortest priced favourites in NRL finals history. With Jarome Luai rumoured to be returning this week and the rest of their squad almost full strength, the injury gods appear to be sided with the Panthers for a third year running.
It’s anything but a fait accompli against the Melbourne Storm though, who whilst not at their best in season 2023 are more than capable of producing an upset at this stage of the year – you can never truly rule out a team with Cameron Munster and Harry Grant in the spine.
In the second game on Saturday night, the Brisbane Broncos play host to the feel-good story of 2023; the New Zealand Warriors.
From second-last in 2022 to a preliminary final this time around, the Wahs have captured the imagination of every rugby league fan without a club in the finals series. They play with wonderful resilience up and down the field while the craft of Shaun Johnson has proven to be a highlight of the 2023 NRL season.
Let’s take a punter’s preview at both games this weekend and pick out a deciding factor for the four teams remaining in the race to the 2023 NRL premiership.
The Penrith Panthers currently play with one of the best defensive records we’ve ever seen in over 100 years of rugby league.
Conceding just 13 points per game throughout the regular season and just six against the Warriors in Week 1 of the finals, the Panthers embody the ideology that defence wins premierships.
Their attack is pretty good, too, scoring 27.1 points per game this season gives them an average winning margin of 14 points across 25 games played in 2023 – like I said, pretty good.
There are few holes in this Panthers juggernaut but Melbourne have the personnel to find them.
Harry Grant was poor against Brisbane two weeks ago but showed glimpses of his attacking best in Melbourne’s narrow win over Easts. His ability to identify opportunities around the ruck and generate speed throughout the course of a set can exploit any rare errors the Panthers make in organising their defensive line.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona is key to this. No player in the NRL scatters defenders like Big NAS and he’s got a terribly quick play-the-ball speed for such a big unit. Asofa-Solomona regularly leaves players on the ground as he plays the ball and that is a trigger for Grant to run.
If Grant can get out from behind the ruck and stress Penrith’s defensive line, the spaces will then open up for Cameron Munster on the left edge, and if Munster is causing havoc down that side of the field, expect Jahrome Hughes and Eli Katoa to ask some questions on the other edge.
Presuming both Hughes and Jarome Luai play in this one, sending the 110kg Katoa at Luai’s busted shoulder a few times is sure to be in Hughes’ playbook.
Penrith won’t give Melbourne many chances to crack their line so it’s imperative for the Storm that Grant, Munster, Hughes and Big NAS are at their active best in this one.
For the Panthers, it’s much of the same.
With Nathan Cleary at the helm and the best forward pack in the competition, the luxury of Penrith’s attack is that it’s both simple and effective.
Complete their sets, get to their kick, chase hard and lock in; it’s a blueprint that’s taken them to back-to-back premierships and there’s no reason to change it now.
I said last year that the Panthers employ a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ approach and I’m expecting the same in this one, by starving their opposition of the ball and playing with the lion’s share of possession and field position, the Panthers can chip away at this Storm pack until they crack.
Patient, composed and relentless, the Panthers know what works for them this season and that’s often the difference in these big games.
Personally, I’ve got this as the game of the round and quite possibly one of the best games of the 2023 NRL season. There are similarities between both sides which make for a cracking contest on Saturday night.
First and foremost, both the Warriors and Broncos have a forward pack that consistently puts them into positions to score points.
For Brisbane, the involvements of Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas have been a standout of their 2023 campaign, with either a quick play-the-ball, a short pass or an offload, both Carrigan and Haas repeatedly create attacking opportunities for their spine players.
Their ability to generate ruck speed allows Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh to get over the advantage line and play right at the defence. Their opposition isn’t afforded the chance to apply inside pressure due to the speed of the ruck, and that means the edges are forced to fold in towards the ball.
We all know what happens from there. Selwyn Cobbo (20 tries), Jesse Arthars (8 tries), Kotoni Staggs & Herbie Farnworth (both 13 tries each) have all proven capable of cashing in on the work of Brisbane’s spine further in-field.
As per usual, we can expect the Broncos to find their points on either edge. Reynolds has developed a lovely combination with Walsh and backrower Jordan Riki, while Walsh himself and Mam have been electric down the left edge at times this season.
It’ll all come back to the efforts of Carrigan or Haas though. If they can win the ruck and get the ball moving through the middle of the field, expect the Broncos to cash in out wide.
The Warriors play with a similar approach in the sense that their middles are imperative to their attack, however the end result is sometimes a little different.
Tohu Harris, Addin Fonua-Blake, Dylan Walker and Wayde Egan have been some of the form players in their respective positions this season. All are capable of disrupting the defensive line with a strong carry or a pass option around the ruck. Sometimes those actions lead to ruck speed which then leads to points out wide through Shaun Johnson, but the Warriors middles have options from there.
Only the Melbourne Storm (31) have scored more tries through the middle-third this season than the New Zealand Warriors (30). We saw it as recently as last week against Newcastle; Johnson hitting short to Fonua-Blake, Egan putting Walker through a gap and Bailey Sironen darting over himself.
The beauty of this form is that their opposition knows all about it. No doubt Brisbane did some video on the Warriors middle in the lead up to this game, and they’re likely to number up around the ruck as a result. The problem with this is that the Wahs are just as dangerous on the edges.
As confidently as Harris, Egan & Co can pop a short ball off their hip, they can also engage the defence before throwing out the back. Egan in particular was brilliant in these areas last week; go back and watch the highlights and you’ll notice Johnson was almost always taking possession in a pocket of space because of Egan’s ability to hold up the ruck defence.
All in all, we’ve got two elite attacking spines playing behind two elite forward packs. This could be a grind or it could be a shoot-out, and either side could win in each scenario.
Take your pick!
Same Game Multi selections:
- Either team by 12.5 Points or Less
- Selwyn Cobbo Anytime Try
- Dallin Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Try