We’re finally here!
It almost doesn’t feel real but after a gruelling 27 weeks, finals footy is ready to kick off this weekend and we’ve got some cracking matchups scheduled for Week 1 of the 2023 NRL finals series.
There’s been a bit of movement on the ladder after some decisive results in NRL Round 27, so let’s take a punters’ preview to each game this weekend and see if we can find some value in the betting markets.
I’ve circled a deciding factor for each team this weekend as we try to tip who will advance into Week 2 of the finals. If your team gets that factor right, they’ll be every chance of keeping their season alive.
Let’s eat!
Fireworks.
That’s what comes to mind when picturing these two sides facing off for the second time in as many weeks in a must-win finals game.
Melbourne will take plenty of confidence out of last week’s win and the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen is a significant morale booster to a side that’s lacked consistency and confidence at times this year.
In saying that, Brisbane will have something to prove with all hands back on deck this week and playing in front of a packed home crowd.
Both clubs defend well and we usually see points dry up in the finals, but this one feels like it might be a shoot-out.
For Brisbane, Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan are the key in my opinion.
Their ability to generate ruck speed with an offload or quick play-the-ball can help to bring Adam Reynolds, Reece Walsh and a blinding Broncos attack into the game.
I’m looking down their right edge for points in this one, but it’ll start with a Haas or Carrigan involvement through the middle.
For Melbourne, it’s all about Harry Grant.
He’s the best hooker in the NRL and a big game player who will touch the ball more than any other Storm player.
His ability to manipulate the markers and engage a specific defender in the line will be key to Melbourne’s attack.
His combination with Papenhuyzen (who is reportedly set to play a roving roll in the middle of the field) is particularly appealing.
If Grant is allowed to get over the advantage line and bring players onto the ball, the Storm will find points from there.
My heart says Broncos win but my head says this one could go down to the final sets.
Suggested Bets:
- Over 42.5 Points
- Kotoni Staggs Anytime Try
I’m expecting some entertainment on Friday night, but this one is shaping as the game of the round.
The New Zealand Warriors have been the surprise packets of 2023 and are thoroughly deserving of a Top Four finish.
They’re one of the more resilient sides in the competition and have a well-balanced squad that is playing to their strengths.
For Penrith, they’re in unchartered waters with a key player sidelined with injury in the business end of the season.
They’ve got the personnel to overcome Jarome Luai’s absence in attack, but it all comes down to defence.
Playing with one of the best defensive systems we’ve ever seen in the history of the NRL, the Panthers can win this one 8-6 if they want to.
I’m tipping the Wahs to score a few more than that, though.
They fell just short in Magic Round but played against 14 in that one with some questionable calls all going Penrith’s way.
With some even luck this time, I think the Warriors can make this interesting.
Their short passing game through the middle-third is perfectly designed to pull apart the most organised defensive line in the NRL.
They’ve got the pack and the resilience to go with Penrith and wait for their opportunities, and I’m tipping Shaun Johnson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad to turn those opportunities into points.
This should be a real grind where possession and completion rates are key.
Suggested Bets:
- Under 41.5 Point
- Either Team to Win by 12.5 or Less
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad Anytime Try
Cronulla’s fullback debate will dominate the lead up to this game.
With Connor Tracey in doubt, does Craig Fitzgibbon move his main man to fullback and run with Braydon Trindall and Matt Moylan in the halves?
There’s merit to this as much as there are concerns – it could disrupt an attack that has struggled in the past without Nicho Hynes in the box seat.
In comparison, the Sydney Roosters are travelling steady.
Sam Walker has been superb since returning two weeks ago and can be the difference in this one.
There are points in both backlines, but Walker gives the Roosters one more creative option than Cronulla will employ.
If the Sharks are too worried about Luke Keary or James Tedesco, Walker can pull them apart on the other side of the field.
His long passing game in particular can cause some problems for a Sharks edge defence that has struggled at times this season.
For Cronulla, it’s all about their forward pack.
Their uptick in form in the last month of the regular season coincided with 10 or more players clocking 100+ metres per game.
With the forwards rolling downhill and the outside backs carrying well out of their own end, the Sharks are creating ample opportunities for their expansive attack to cash in.
If they do the same on Saturday against a Roosters pack without Jared Warea-Hargreaves, Cronulla can put themselves in a position to win this one.
Suggested Bets:
- Roosters 1-12
- Joseph Aukuso-Sua’ali’i Anytime Try
The Newcastle Knights have continued to reap the rewards of a tremendous back half of the regular season, clinching an unlikely home game in Week 1 of the finals.
Furthermore, Newcastle have the relative advantage of hosting the Canberra Raiders – who have one win from their last four games and will field a decimated squad this weekend – in their first knock-out game of the series.
It’s a winnable game for the resurgent Knights who will likely welcome back both Kalyn Ponga and Jackson Hastings this weekend.
Their attack has been superb even without one or both of those men, and with them returning the Knights are deservedly short-priced favourites to advance to Week 2 of the finals.
Hastings’ return is a timely one given how I expect the Knights to attack on Sunday.
The Raiders left edge has been a sore point all year for Ricky Stuart and I think the Knights right edge of Hastings, Tyson Frizell, Dane Gagai and Dominic Young can cause them some problems.
Hastings’ ability to straighten the attack and make room for Ponga, Young & Co might end up the difference in this one.
For the Raiders, they need to go all in on an unpredictable and expansive playing style.
Canberra have one of more unorthodox attacks in the NRL, in that they don’t work to specific spots on the field to execute set shapes.
Instead, they use offloads and short passes to scramble the defence and generate second-phase play.
For this reason it’s difficult to pick Raiders try scorers, and given the holes in their forward pack with Josh Papali’i and Corey Horsburgh – two of their most productive forwards – sidelined, I can’t see Canberra playing with enough ruck speed to consistently trouble Newcastle’s defence.
Suggested Bets:
- Knights 13+
- Dominic Young 2+ Tries