Things fell as the Neds NRL Punting Podcast predicted in Week 1 of the 2023 NRL finals series, with both Cronulla and Canberra sent packing by the Roosters and Knights, respectively.
It leaves us with two cracking match ups this weekend as the Brisbane Broncos and Penrith Panthers put their feet up and wait for their opposition in the preliminary finals.
Injuries and suspensions have decimated all four clubs running out in Week 2 of the finals, so let’s take a look at the deciding factors in both elimination games this weekend.
Aside from the tragic injury to Ryan Papenhuyzen, one of the key takeaways from Melbourne’s shut-out loss to Brisbane last week was how quiet Harry Grant – and the rest of the Storm spine – were.
Grant clocked 44 running metres last week (well down from his 69m per game season average) and Melbourne’s attack struggled as a result.
When we picture the Storm attack at it’s best, Grant is jumping out from behind the ruck, holding up the markers and bringing a teammate onto the ball.
His speed and strength as a ball runner demands attention from the defence and when he compresses the line towards the ball, the spaces then open up for Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster to run.
Brisbane didn’t allow that to happen last weekend. Munster (65 run metres, down from 128m season average) and Hughes (50 run metres, down from 106m avg) were stifled in attack as Brisbane won the ruck and provided constant inside pressure in defence.
We can put the lack of involvement from Melbourne’s three strike attacking players last week down to the struggles of their forward pack.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona was the only Storm forward to clock 100+ metres in that loss and without their forwards generating ruck speed, Grant, Munster and Hughes weren’t provided with positive opportunities on the ball.
For Hughes (43 receipts) and Munster (48 receipts) to spend so little time in possession points to Melbourne’s struggles in yardage last week.
The Roosters pack is formidable but doesn’t boast the same quality as Brisbane does at this stage in the season.
The Storm should be more effective in yardage in this one, meaning their spine players should be more productive too.
Playing with momentum in sets will be key for Melbourne this week given the Roosters play with the best red-zone defence in the NRL.
They defend their line superbly and won’t make it easy for the Storm in good-ball, but if Grant can get things rolling as the Storm work downfield though, the spaces might open up on the edges in yardage.
For the Chooks, they’ve found what works for them in the back end of the season and are causing havoc around the ruck.
Brandon Smith was brilliant with the ball in hand last week (9 runs for 92 metres) and he consistently compressed Cronulla’s defensive line towards the ball.
From there, James Tedesco, Sam Walker and Luke Keary had time and space on the edges to make the play.
They’re without Joey Manu and Joseph Sua’ali’i this week but the Roosters don’t rely on their edges to create scoring opportunities.
They can crash the middle, generate second phase play and shift quickly to the wings where anyone can score.
Their right edge in particular feels likely given how Brisbane tore through Melbourne’s left edge last week.
As always, forwards decide games and the backs decide by how much. I don’t think the Roosters will mind winning a close one again this week, and they’ve got the forward pack to do just that.
I’ve spoken at length this year about the resilience of Andrew Webster’s Warriors in 2023.
They’re willing to concede first points and stay in the grind, waiting for their opportunities without breaking from their systems.
Their hardened forward pack and the kicking game of Shaun Johnson usually creates those opportunities late in each half, but they really missed the latter last week against an almost-perfect Penrith Panthers outfit.
With Johnson expected back this week, those qualities make for a mouth-watering match-up against the Newcastle Knights on Saturday afternoon.
Just like the Warriors, the Knights have displayed wonderful resilience over the last 10 weeks – particularly against Canberra last weekend.
Down by 10 points at halftime, the Knights soaked up the pressure and waited for Canberra to make a mistake. The Raiders played out an extremely physical first half but when the intensity dropped, the Knights pounced.
Whether or not Jackson Hastings plays this week, it’s Tyson Gamble I’ve got my eye on.
He’s underrated on the form he’s produced in the back end of the season and his ability to straighten the attack is what’s giving Kalyn Ponga so much time and space on that left edge.
Gamble is willing to take a shot as he digs into the line and can be the perfect foil for Ponga in attack.
As for the Warriors, they can learn something from how Canberra attacked the game last week.
By frontloading their defence and winning the ruck, the Raiders prevented Gamble from getting over the ad-line and straightening the attack.
If the Warriors can win their tackles and pressure hard from the inside, it will help to contain Ponga one pass wider on the edges.
In terms of their attack, I think the Warriors profile quite nicely to trouble Newcastle’s defence.
The Knights defend very well on the edges, combinations and cohesion is a large reason for this; their edge units have been consistent for most of the season and they know how to work together and herd an attack to the sideline.
It’s through the middle where I think the Warriors can have some joy.
Wayde Egan has been one of the form hookers this season and asks plenty of questions of the ruck defence.
Throw in the ballplaying of Tohu Harris, Addin Fonua-Blake and Dylan Walker, and the Warriors have an embarrassment of riches in the ballplaying department through the middle.
If the Knights spread their line to contain Johnson and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad on the edges, Egan & Co have the ability to punch right through the middle.