We’ve worked our way through three weeks of the 2023 NRL finals series and it still feels like we’re waiting for a true finals-quality grind. Big wins to both Penrith and Brisbane last weekend saw the two best teams of the 2023 regular season comfortably earn their tickets to the big dance on Sunday afternoon.
Forward pass howlers aside, the Broncos and Panthers both deserve to be here this weekend and we can only hope it’s not another blowout.
Given the way both these sides have played their way through the finals series however, it’s fair to expect a closer game in what could be the best 80 minutes of the season.
Let’s take a look at the deciding factors for both clubs in the 2023 NRL Grand Final.
Panthers In The Grind
I’m covering old ground here, but the beauty of Penrith’s gameplan coming into Sunday’s grand final is in its simplicity.
Repeatable actions are the best actions in rugby league and the Panthers have dominated the last four regular seasons by playing the same patient, grinding, high-percentage brand of football.
It’s old news now but by employing their back five in yardage, Penrith save their forwards for defence. Last week’s big win over the Melbourne Storm was no different; Dylan Edwards (126m), Sunia Turuva (100m), Izack Tago (124m), Stephen Crichton (105m) and Brian To’o (181m) all hit triple figures in yardage to help Penrith to the lion’s share of field position.
That’s not to say the Panthers forwards didn’t get busy in yardage, though. All five starting forwards cracked 100+ metres last week as Penrith poured through Melbourne’s middle.
The reason Penrith’s forwards can be so active in yardage and so aggressive in defence is thanks to those outside backs. The Panthers forwards never have to work hard to get behind the ball; instead, they catch a breath when the kick goes over their heads and wait for their back five to cart the ball back into good field position.
No side in the modern era has done this as consistently and effectively as the Penrith Panthers. The effect of this strategy was clear to see in the opening exchanges last week when Fisher-Harris had the energy to force two errors with his line speed and aggression in defence.
And so it continued. Penrith dominate field position, their opposition make errors trying something different out of their own end, and the Panthers win yet more field position to play from.
They’re not the most efficient attacking team inside their opposition’s 20-metre line but they don’t need to be. They spend more time than any side in the NRL in good-ball and eventually that pressure tells.
When camping on their opponent’s try line, the Panthers sit back and wait for the opportunities to show themselves. Last week that opportunity appeared in the spaces between Cameron Munster and Justin Olam and by fulltime Nathan Cleary had constructed four tries down that edge.
We’d be foolish to expect anything different on Sunday afternoon.
If form is any indication, the Brisbane Broncos won’t present Penrith with a glaring weakness like Melbourne did last week. They’ve conceded 32 tries down their left edge, 31 on the right and just 10 through the middle; only the Panthers have defended their line better this season.
While it’s difficult to pick where the Panthers will send their traffic on Sunday, we can expect them to figure it out on the run.
Adam Reynolds and the Broncos right edge is where I think they’ll start. They know how important Reynolds is to Brisbane’s attack and by forcing him into plenty of defensive work, they can try to limit Reynolds’ involvements in attack.
When these sides last met in Round 1, the Panthers asked Reynolds to make 27 tackles – a season high. I think that’s a pretty good place for Cleary and the Panthers attack to start on Sunday.
Whether it’s there or somewhere else on the field, we know what to expect once Penrith see something they like. They’ve got wonderful variety in attack and will send an array of shapes and actions at whatever weakness they find in Brisbane’s line.
Broncos The The Middle
It’s been an incredible turn around for the Brisbane Broncos who this time three years ago were collecting the dreaded Wooden Spoon. Credit must go to Kevvie Walters for identifying the strengths in his roster and getting his men to play towards them.
I’m repeating myself again here, but for the Broncos everything starts with their middles.
Payne Haas and Pat Carrigan have arguably been the two best forwards in the NRL this year (although Fisher-Harris and Leota might have something to say about that on Sunday) and both players are integral to the Broncos attack.
With a quick play-the-ball or some second-phase play, both Haas and Carrigan are usually the trigger for a Broncos scoring action. Throw in Tom Flegler (165 metres last week) and Keenan Palasia (168m off the bench) and Brisbane are blessed with yardage merchants in the pack. As they’ve done all year, those forwards crash the middle, generate ruck speed and allow Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh to play over the advantage line at a stressed defence.
It’s not going to come so easy on Sunday.
The Penrith Panthers concede the least running metres of any side in the competition. As mentioned above, this is largely thanks to the freshness of their forward pack. With this in mind, the Broncos must be prepared to try something a little different in this one as they did last week against the Warriors.
The Broncos threw 23 offloads last weekend. That’s almost as many as they’ve throw in their last three games (25) and is comfortably more than their previous season-high of 17 in a game.
Carrigan had four offloads last week, Palasia offered two off the bench, Fleglar and Haas had seven between them and the outside backs combined for another six. The added ball movement and second-phase play scattered New Zealand’s line and injected fatigue into the defence. While the game was in the balance for the best part of 60 minutes, the Warriors couldn’t go with them in the final quarter as all that extra defensive work took its toll.
I’m looking for more of the same on Sunday.
While Brisbane might have one of the only forward packs to go toe-to-toe with the Panthers, it’s foolish to try and beat them at their own game. By moving the defensive line around and promoting the footy though, the Broncos can force Penrith into a Plan B in defence. A few early kicks from Reynolds to isolate the Panthers back five on kick returns feels like another tactic the Broncos can employ in this one.
Brisbane must find a balance between risk and reward but they’ll need to chance their arm a few times on Sunday. Reece Walsh personifies the idea of making calculated errors in the pursuit of points and it’s where the Broncos can get one over the Panthers if they play it right.
Their right edge has been the most fruitful all year and there’s no reason to change that now. Walsh tore the Warriors apart with his speed out the back of shape and he can make Jarome Luai a target in this one. Very few halves in the NRL are quick enough to check the lead runner before turning and chasing on Walsh out the back, and if the Broncos can force Luai into enough of those decision, they should be able to come away with points.
2023 NRL Grand Final Tips
- Either Team by 12.5 Points or Less
- Selwyn Cobbo Anytime Try
- Sunia Turuva Anytime Try