Finals football.
It’s truly the most wonderful time of the year.
Some people say it’s better than Christmas.
Those people are right.
Eight teams, eight dreams, one cup.
I can put all the cliches in the world in this introduction but instead, let’s just try and make Week 1 of the 2023 AFL Finals a profitable one for the Neds punters in our AFL Qualifying and Elimination Finals Preview
Collingwood and Melbourne kicking off the finals is the perfect way to start September.
Melbourne looks as though they’ve perfectly timed their run winning seven of their last eight, with the Pies winning five of their last eight and just a smidge of the yips hitting the league’s glamour side.
While the superstar Nick Daicos won’t be playing, the Magpies are likely to welcome back skipper Darcy Moore on Thursday night which will be a much-needed boost for Collingwood who have seen their fare share of injuries of late.
The Magpies have made the MCG a fortress in recent years, however, co-tenant Melbourne is one of only three teams to have beaten them at the home of football this year, winning a four-point thriller that finally handed Collingwood a loss.
Based on form, Melbourne heads into the game a stronger prospect to get the win over Collingwood, with the market at the time of publish having the Dees at $1.98 underdog, to the Pies $1.85.
Having said that, Collingwood, close games and finals go hand in hand.
Six of Collingwood’s last eight finals have been decided by 15 points or less, making the $2.50 tri-bet either team to win by 15.5 or under the best value play to kick off what is sure to be a sensational finals series.
The Baggers are back in the finals for the first time in over a decade and play a team that managed to finish 8th due to umpiring errors in two matches during the season in the Sydney Swans at the MCG this Friday night.
When these two sides last met, the Swans did a number on the Blues defeating them by 26 points at the SCG on a Friday night in Round 11 which had Blues fans calling up 3AW demanding that coach Micheal Voss be sacked.
A lot has changed since then, with the Blues finding their mojo and some believing that they can party like it’s 1995.
Patrick Cripps and Sam Docherty are likely to come back into the Blues side with Tom Papley back in Sydney’s starting line up.
In recent weeks, Sydney has the ability to start strong but fade out in the last quarter, and with the Blues playing in front of a desperate and adoring home crowd, expect them to bring it home in the last quarter not seen since their glory days at Princes Park.
The Blues should go on and win this comfortably in the end, and the 25+ points looks like a good value play.
This game is a bloody hard one to tip and at the time of publish, GWS is the $1.73 favourite in our head-to-head market with the Saints the $2.10 underdog.
While there is no home-ground advantage with this match being played at the MCG, the Giants have lost six of their last eight at the ground and this will be the first final they’ve played at the ground since that 89-point humiliation in the 2019 Grand Final.
Both teams have been surprise packets this season, especially the Giants while everyone has been writing off the Saints despite being in the top eight all season.
When these two sides met back in Round 10 the Saints jagged an 8-point victory over the Giants with Max King booting four goals and Jack Sinclair getting 37 disposals.
Heading into the finals, the Giants have won nine of their last 11, with just five out of 11 for the Saints.
The only reason why I’m backing St Kilda is Ross Lyon’s ability to find a way to combat a Giants team on the attack and the fact the Saints have won their last four against the orange team.
They’ve been written off all year, and they’ll just find a way to do it again.
It’s very on-brand for them.
Given that Brisbane has won their past 12 games at the Gabba, surely it’s not a case of unlucky 13 with a banana peel slip as Port breaks the streak in the first qualifying final?
Surely not!
The Brisbane Lions are the shortest-priced favourite in Week 1 of the finals with all the facts, stats, and figures backing Chris Fagan’s men to get the job done.
They’ve won every game at the Gabba in 2023, they have won five out of the last six against Port and the last four games against the Power at the Gabba.
Port did smash the Lions back in Round 1, which was the only time they met this season and a lot has changed since then.
I’m not sure about the Power, they lost four in a row and had to struggle to get the wins over non-finalists Fremantle and Richmond.
There have been plenty of upsets in the first week of the finals over the years, but I’m just not sure if Port beating the Lions at the Gabba is going to be one of them.
I’ll take the Lions 1-39 points and to book themselves a spot in the Preliminary FInal.