The final round of the NRL regular season is here which means we’re back for Part 3 of our tri-annual club rankings.
It feels a LONG time ago when I ranked South Sydney at the top after nine rounds played, and we’ve seen some considerable movement on the NRL ladder since then as clubs rise or fall with finals approaching.
Let’s take a look at where each club ranks with an eye towards the finals series.
As always, this is only my opinion and I’ve factored injuries, suspensions, form, roster depth and difficulty of draw into account when deciding these rankings.
Let’s go!
1) Brisbane Broncos
Draw: Storm
The Kevvie Walters revival keeps on keeping on with Brisbane sitting in first place on the NRL ladder after 26 rounds.
Key to the Broncos success this year has been the continuity of their playing squad.
Key players have missed games here and there but for the most part, the backline hasn’t changed, the spine has been steady and Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas have both played 20 games each.
Those two in particular are so important to Brisbane’s go-forward and good-ball attack, they help to win the ruck and create space for Adam Reynolds and his backline of strike attacking players to go to work.
Thanks to the work of his teammates, Reece Walsh is being afforded the luxury of being the cherry on top of what has become a very confident and cohesive Broncos attack.
They look the most likely to challenge Penrith for the premiership this season.
2) Penrith Panthers
Draw: Cowboys
I’ve mentioned a few times this year how lucky Penrith have been on the injury front during their recent period of dominance.
With Jarome Luai the latest to go down injured however, Ivan Cleary has a new challenge on his hands.
The Panthers enjoy some of the best depth in the NRL and have options to cover Luai while he’s sidelined.
If history is any indication though, the Panthers will overcome Luai’s absence by dominating in all other key areas.
They’re still the best yardage team in the comp and one of the best defensive units we’ve ever seen in the NRL.
That alone should see them go deep into the finals series, regardless of their personnel.
If it wasn’t for some of the results last weekend, I’d probably still have the Panthers on top of this list.
3) Newcastle Knights
Draw: @ Dragons
I was salty when they ran through the Rabbitohs two weeks ago, but the rugby league romantic in me can’t deny the Knights resurgence of late.
Jackson Hastings has been an integral part of this Newcastle side but even without his direction the Knights are still playing to their strengths.
They know how to get the best out of Kalyn Ponga and as a result he’s turning half chances into points more often than not.
The Knights don’t dominate in many key stat areas but one number leaps out: Newcastle rank 17th in the NRL for penalties conceded.
They’re playing a highly disciplined brand of footy that starves the opposition of possession and field position.
Across the board, as individuals the Knights are playing to their potential which has to be a vote of confidence for Head Coach Adam O’Brien.
I can’t believe I’m ranking them so highly and I can’t wait to see what they do in the finals.
4) New Zealand Warriors
Draw: @ Dolphins
If the Warriors were based in Sydney, we’d be hearing a hell of a lot more about their premiership credentials.
We know all of Newcastle’s eight-straight but there’s been barely a mention of New Zealand’s current seven game win streak.
Andrew Webster has completely transformed this Warriors side.
Once riddled with errors and low-percentage plays, the Wahs currently rank 12th for errors, 6th for completions and 3rd in the NRL for total possession.
With the additional field position and time on the ball, Shaun Johnson has enjoyed a career year on the edges while the Warriors middle rotation of Tohu Harris, Dylan Walker and Addin Fonua-Blake have combined for an absurd 23 try involvements between them.
It’s in the middle where the Warriors pull away from the rest of the NRL, Wayde Egan is another whose enjoying career-best form behind a winning forward pack and will be a key player in the finals series.
A recent injury to Tohu Harris has me ranking New Zealand just below Newcastle at time of writing.
5) Melbourne Storm
Draw: @ Broncos
I mentioned on the pod last week that Melbourne have endured an uncharacteristic season, by their standards.
For Craig Bellamy to be tinkering with his line up – particularly in the backline – as late into the season as Round 22 is the best evidence for that. Bellamy knows the importance of combinations and cohesion, but injuries, suspensions and form have forced his hand.
Despite the unrest, the Storm are still one the better drilled sides in the NRL.
Their forward pack is coming good at the right time and they enjoy one of the best and most established spines in the competition – and that’s with Ryan Papenhuyzen still to return in full capacity.
They mightn’t be the clinical Storm of old but Melbourne are still well and truly a contender in this premiership race.
6) Cronulla Sharks
Draw: Raiders
What a revival from the Cronulla Sharks. Just six weeks ago they were dead in the water with a struggling forward pack and a left edge defensive unit that was leaking like a sieve.
That’s all changed since a 28-0 loss to Penrith in Round 22. Brayden Trindall has had some nice involvements coming in for Matt Moylan and Connor Tracey has been superb filling in for the injured Will Kennedy at fullback.
It’s in yardage though that the Sharks have truly turned things around, barring a shut-out against Newcastle last weekend, Cronulla have had 10 or more players run for 100+ metres every week since Round 22.
They’re winning the territory battle and producing enough repeatable actions in good-ball to pile on the points.
With Nicho Hynes still to return, the equation is a simple one for the Sharks, if their forwards can stand up and win the ruck, there’s enough talent in this backline to manufacture points.
7) Sydney Roosters
Draw: @ Rabbitohs
Could the NRL have scripted this any better?
The Chooks have found some form and are a chance of sneaking into the Top Eight if they can get past South Sydney in Round 27.
The Roosters attack is still building and it’s frightening to consider where it might get to if they play finals footy this season.
Sam Walker looked good in his NRL return while Brandon Smith and Victor Radley are hitting form at the right time after both enduring disrupted seasons.
A big suspension to Jared Warea-Hargreaves will hamstring a forward pack that has gained momentum over the last few weeks and Joey Manu’s latest injury will hurt too.
Still, I wouldn’t want to face the Roosters in Week 1 of the finals… if they get there.
8) North Queensland Cowboys
Draw: @ Panthers
I’m a big Todd Payten guy but the Cowboys form this year has been damning. Their 2022 campaign was built on effort and consistency, but North Queensland have lacked both at times this season.
Injuries and suspensions have crippled an elite forward pack and the halves aren’t firing like they were this time last year. They made light work of a decimated Dolphins side last weekend but haven’t been anywhere near their best for extended periods throughout the year.
With Penrith standing between them and a possible finals berth in Round 27, a ninth placed finish for the Cowboys might end up just about right for how this squad have played in 2023.
9) South Sydney Rabbitohs
Draw: Roosters
Injuries, suspensions and poor form have riddled the Rabbitohs 2023 campaign.
They enjoyed their third and final bye last weekend which Souths desperately needed based on their recent form.
With one regular season game left to rediscover their mojo, South Sydney simply need to respond against Easts this weekend.
They played with the second-best defence in the NRL after 10 rounds but are conceding an average 20.8 points per game this year – far too much to be premiership threats.
An improvement without the ball will go a long way to locking in a finals appearance next weekend.
The talent in this squad means they could go on a run from there, but we can only judge on what we’ve seen and it hasn’t been pretty for the Bunnies.
10) Parramatta Eels
Draw: Bye
The Eels 2023 season can only be considered a failure after featuring in last year’s grand final.
In Brad Arthur’s defence, he’s struggled to pick his first-choice squad for most of the season.
Ryan Matterson missed games early, Dylan Brown, Mitch Moses and Reagan Campbell-Gillard have all been absent with injuries or suspensions and marquee signing Josh Hodgson managed just 12 games for his new club.
Inexperience and a lack of cohesion have crippled Parramatta’s campaign this season, only for them to completely dominate Penrith last weekend.
The bones of a premiership side are in this club somewhere, but the Eels haven’t played anywhere near their potential in 2023.
11) Canberra Raiders
Draw: @ Sharks
I wasn’t very high on the Raiders this year and their form over the last few weeks vindicates that thought.
They play an effort-based brand of football but might just be lacking the attacking class to go with the top teams.
Their unorthodox attack is hard to defend at times but it’s also hard to replicate.
The best teams have repeatable attacking actions to play towards while Canberra rely on second-phase play to generate much of their points.
A -119 points differential may end up deciding whether Canberra play finals this year or not; no team in NRL history has played finals with a -100 for and against.
With the Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Roosters hot on their heels, even a win against Cronulla this weekend mightn’t be enough for The Milk in 2023.
12) Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
Draw: Tigers
Another year and another season that might just come down to the absence of Tom Trbojevic.
Manly haven’t been at their consistent best in 2023 but have been there or thereabouts for the most part.
The evergreen Daly Cherry-Evans has led from the front while Reuben Garrick continues to impress with his efforts and versatility.
There have been shining lights throughout this roster, but the absence of Tommy Turbo and the rollercoaster that is Josh Schuster have had their effect on Manly’s premiership chances this season.
They’ve got the talent to beat the best sides, but producing that talent week in and week out – all without their best player – has alluded them this year.
13) Gold Coast Titans
Draw: Bulldogs
A 12th placed finish looks average on paper, but this must be considered a promising year for the Gold Coast Titans.
Kieran Foran has helped finally unlock David Fifita in attack, lighting up a left edge featuring rookie finisher Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Brian Kelly in the process.
That alone is a positive for the Titans to carry into next season with new coach Des Hasler taking over.
Long-term injuries to Beau Fermor, Sam Verrills, Jaimin Joliffe and AJ Brimson crippled a building Gold Coast squad this year that should enjoy some improvement with all hands back on deck in 2024.
14) The Dolphins
Draw: Warriors
A fast start to the year had everyone overreacting but The Dolphins have finished just about where I expected them to in 2023.
Their first-choice 17 is good enough to go with most opposition but squad depth was always going to be an issue for the Phins in their inaugural NRL season.
As injuries and suspensions took their toll, Redcliffe slowly slipped down the ladder and should finish in 13th spot next week.
It was never just about this season for Wayne Bennett though.
The likes of Isaiya Katoa, Valynce Te Whare, Jack Bostock, Harrison Graham, Mason Teague and Connelly Lemuelu will all be better for the experience, and we can expect The Dolphins to improve in 2024.
15) St George-Illawarra Dragons
Draw: Knights
I tipped the Dragons for the spoon this season, but they’ve done enough against similarly placed teams to avoid the dreaded cutlery in 2023.
Ben Hunt has shrugged off ongoing speculation to be the Dragons best week in, week out in an inexperienced and ever-changing spine.
He’s a model of professionalism and consistency, and a player Shane Flanagan can build the club around next season… if he stays with the Red V.
Hunt has been lacking support all year with a host of St George’s key players unavailable at different times.
Jaydn Su’a, Jack Bird, Zac Lomax, Jayden Sullivan, Jack de Belin and Tyrell Fuimaono – some of the Dragons more experienced players – have all missed considerable game time this season meaning a lot has fallen on Hunt and Tyrell Sloan to win games.
Sloan’s development has been a highlight and he’s shown enough this year to be invested in further down the track.
For now though, narrowly missing the wooden spoon feels about right for the Dragons when you consider the teams around them on the ladder.
16) Wests Tigers
Draw: @ Sea Eagles
All jokes aside, this year has made me empathise with Wests Tigers fans.
A season full of promise before a ball was kicked quickly turned to disaster as the Tigers dropped their first eight games.
Injuries to Adam Doueihi, Luke Brooks and Daine Laurie at different times crippled an already struggling attack, meaning much fell on Api Koroisau to create scoring opportunities in good-ball.
Those opportunities have been scarce due to a middling forward pack and a squad that ranks equal last for completion rates, third for errors and dead last for total kick metres.
The arrival of Jahream Bula must be a highlight for Wests 2023 campaign and he’s given the club a player they can build a squad around – alongside Koroisau – moving forward.
17) Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Draw: @ Titans
I’ve been prepared to make excuses for the Bulldogs this season but their form in the back end of the year has them ranked a lowly 17th today.
The absence of key players – particularly in the forwards – really hurt Canterbury to begin the season and they never quite recovered.
Even with Viliame Kikau, Luke Thompson and Tevita Pangai Jnr back in recent weeks, the Bulldogs have failed to instil any confidence in their form or direction.
Matt Burton and Reed Mahoney have struggled under the responsibility of steering this squad around the park and a constantly changing backline has prevented any combinations from developing.
With Jake Averillo – arguably their best player this year – on the move for 2024, Cameron Ciraldo needs to figure out his first-choice 17 and stick with it next season.
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Where do you think your club ranks at the end of the regular season and why? Let us know in the comments!
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com