It’s been a cracking few weeks in the NRLW on the tipping front with a number of value tryscorers going over and margin results cashing in.
We’re learning more and more about each team’s attacking preferences and defensive deficiencies with every week, and it’s helping us zero in on a few value picks in the betting markets.
NRLW Round 7 kicks off on Saturday morning and we’re being treated to some mouth-watering matchups against similarly placed teams.
With just three regular season games remaining, the top four is pulling away from the rest of the competition as seven clubs race for rungs 3rd and 4th on the NRLW ladder.
Here’s my punters preview for NRLW Round 7.
The Newcastle Knights rank dead last in the NRLW for set completion rates.
They make lots of errors in yardage and also concede the fifth most penalties on average per game.
While those numbers are concerning, they also speak to the quality of the Knights 2023 roster.
Despite so many unforced errors and penalties, the Knights are still sitting pretty in second place on the NRLW ladder with five wins from their first six games.
They field the game’s best fullback Tamika Upton and one of the most experienced dummy-halves in the game in Olivia Higgins.
These two support a halves pairing that on potential is arguably the best in the competition; UK important Georgia Roche and teenage halfback Jesse Southwell.
Playing behind a forward pack that currently ranks fourth in the NRLW, this spine is consistently creating scoring actions in good-ball.
Against a Canberra Raiders side that is middling in yardage and conceding the second-most points per game on average, I can see the Knights crossing a few times in this one.
The Raiders right edge defensive unit has leaked 16 tries in six games and lines up against a Knights left edge that’s crossed 10 times so far this season.
Left winger Jasmin Strange is a good bet this weekend and I’m going to back Georgia Roche to score her first try in the NRLW too.
I tipped the Cronulla Sharks to go with Newcastle last week, but they shot themselves in the foot.
They ran for more metres, made more linebreaks, missed less tackles and conceded less penalties than the Knights but had a second-half try disallowed before coughing up a cheap one to Shanice Parker just five tackles later.
The final score is less a reflection of the Sharks right now than the numbers from that game are.
Cronulla went with Newcastle for the best part of 70 minutes in NRLW Round 6 and can take some confidence from being so close when not at their best.
Speaking of confidence, the Brisbane Broncos are full of it right now.
After dropping their first two games the Broncos have since won three of their last four, with their only other loss a two-point margin against Newcastle in NRLW Round 5.
Ali Brigginshaw continues to lead the way for playmakers in the NRLW and she’s being wonderfully supported by a skilful forward pack.
The Broncos have added a pass option in yardage which is helping them work smarter, not harder, when rolling downfield.
It’s the Broncos left edge that separates them from the rest of the competition, though.
Five-eighth Gayle Broughton and fullback Hayley Maddick are slowly getting the best out of Mele Hufanga and now Julia Robinson on that left edge.
Hufanga has eight tries – yes, eight – from her last four games while Robinson cashed in when returning from injury last week.
The Broncos left edge has scored a whopping 16 tries already – only the Roosters right edge unit has produced more points so far this season – and should be value again this weekend.
St George-Illawarra fullback Teagan Berry is just 21 years old and already holds the record for most tries scored in the NRLW.
She cashed in four times last weekend against the Titans but still came away second-best courtesy of a Lauren Brown field-goal in the 69th minute.
Berry’s combination with Dragons halfback Raecene McGregor has no ceiling.
McGregor is arguably the best playmaker in the NRLW and she’s linked beautifully with Berry over the first six weeks, using her short kicking game or ballplaying to put Berry into advantageous positions on the field.
The Gold Coast’s third-best defence in the NRLW somewhat contained a Dragons attack (barring Berry) last week but I’m not so sure North Queensland can do the same on Saturday.
Struggling in yardage and spending the second-least amount of time in possession of any side in the NRLW, the Cowboys don’t have the firepower to make up for a middling forward pack and an inexperienced backline.
They rely on Emma Manzelmann and Kirra Dibb to manufacture points, but don’t give either player a wealth of field position to play with.
I think this could be another long afternoon for the Cowboys…
Wests have played the last two games without their first or second choice halfbacks.
Emily Curtain and Losana Lutu are both still sidelined with injury and I struggle to see how the Tigers attack improves until one (or both) of them return to the side.
They’ll also be without Sarah Togatuki – the most productive yardage forward in the NRLW – and backrower Kezie Apps this week, meaning Wests will look very different in NRLW Round 7.
The Titans currently play with the third-worst attack in the competition, so although Wests are decimated this week it’s hard to imagine Gold Coast running a sword through them.
Instead, the Titans rely on the third-best defence in the NRLW to keep them in games.
The involvements of Lauren Brown (between hooker and halfback) and fullback Evania Pelite have done enough to help the Titans to four wins this season, but it all starts with their defence.
I’m expecting a real grind in this game with the Titans just coming home stronger.
Look away, Parra fans; this is going to be a bloodbath.
The Eels are treading water in 2023. They’ve got the worst injury toll in the NRLW to decimate a squad that was already a little light on paper. Kennedy Cherrington (suspension) and Elsie Albert (injury) have left a sizable hole in Parramatta’s forward rotation and Head Coach Dean Widders has struggled to fill it, six games in.
Halfback Rachael Pearson has breathed some life into the worst attacking team in the NRLW, but her direction and kicking game can only do so much. The Eels spend the least amount of time in possession in the NRLW and average the least running metres per game. Going up against the Roosters who lead the league for possession and total run metres, I cannot see a world where Parramatta keep this close.
The Eels right edge has conceded 16 tries already this year and lines up against Tarryn Aiken (3 tries so far this season) and Easts left edge of Otesa Pule (2 tries), Isabelle Kelly (4 tries) and Brydie Parker (4). It’s a bit of a ‘take your pick’ bet as to which Rooster (or Roosters) goes over in this one.