We’ve arrived at the penultimate week of the NRL regular season and there is plenty on the line in the top half of the table!
The Panthers, Broncos and Warriors are all but locked in, but another four clubs are still fighting for final, potentially vital position in the Top 4.
There are also three clubs currently sitting outside of the Top 8 who can mathematically still make the cut and boy, does it make for an exciting run home.
As always, you can find all of my thoughts and complete NRL Round 26 Tips below!
You wouldn’t know that these two clubs met in last year’s decider, looking at these head-to-head prices!
The Panthers have been nothing short of outstanding again all season, and another minor Premiership combined with a deep finals run looms, not to mention the potential of a third-consecutive Provan-Summons Trophy waiting at the end.
I did wonder if the Eels’ run to last year’s Grand Final was a flash in the pan, and I’ve been proven to be correct – they won’t play finals at all in 2023.
An enormous class difference and one pretty obvious result, in my opinion!
Same Game Multi selections:
- Panthers 13+
- Over 43.5 Points
- $2.37
The Warriors can lock down a spot in the Top 4 once and for all with another win over the lowly Dragons on Friday evening.
As expected, they didn’t have things all their own way against the Sea Eagles in Round 25, but the Warriors rallied to ultimately do enough to win.
They have been terrific across the paddock this season, with highlights including Dally M candidate Shaun Johnson, and star winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, who scored another hat-trick last week!
The Dragons, meanwhile, have been awful, and this will be their penultimate appearance in season 2023.
Another one that betting suggests will be one-sided, and for good reason.
Same Game Multi selections:
- Warriors (-17.5)
- Over 47.5 Points
- $2.81
The Phins can ruin the finals chances of Queensland rivals the Cowboys on Friday night, but they will need to improve tenfold.
Their fast start to the season came to a screeching halt quite a while ago, and it’s fair to say that the Phins have been one of the NRL’s easy beats of late.
They’ll learn plenty from their debut campaign and I’m sure they’ll be a lot better in 2024.
The Cowboys looked an absolute moral for the finals as recently as three weeks ago, but they have completely gone to water, and they now need to win their remaining two games and hope other results go their way.
They look tired, and like a side that has been trying to make a late charge for a while now.
I think that the Cowboys depth and class edge will see them into winning form again, but I think it’ll be pretty close.
Another game, another market skewed towards the club that will play finals footy.
They won’t win a minor Premiership and, in my opinion, they probably don’t quite have the means to win the actual Premiership either, but the Storm are in the box seat for another top four finish, and nothing short of a dominant win this week will be accepted from coach Craig Bellamy.
The future looks bright for the Titans and I am expecting them to fight into the finals in 2024 but before that, another two games have to be contested in 2023.
16 of the last 17 teams to have played Penrith have covered the line the following week, but that stat has to end somewhere, and I think it will be here.
Oh, what? Another extremely short favourite taking on a rank outsider!
The Roosters have kept their slim finals hopes alive and have played themselves into a little bit of form recently, ending the Eels’ chances last week.
They need to win both remaining matches and pray for other results as well, but they’ll surely do part of the first against the Tigers this week.
Another shambolic and forgettable year for the Tigers, but they did manage to record a rare win last week in their first-ever clash against the Dolphins.
There’s simply too much on the line this week for the Roosters to bottle it.
Given the number of extremely one-sided fixtures that are set to be contested, this might not be much of a statement, but a genuine match of the round candidate comes up between the Raiders and Broncos in the nation’s capital on Saturday night.
The Raiders have really punched above their weight this year, and they remain a good chance of finishing in the Top 6.
They have won only two of their last five matches, but last week’s comprehensive performance against the Bulldogs is sure to have filled their sails with win.
The Broncos have obviously been one of the standout performers of the season, however, and they remain a chance of winning the minor premiership.
I don’t think that they will, but they are still tied on competition points with the Panthers, so it’s possible.
It’s still very cold in Canberra at night time, and there’s no doubt that the conditions will suit the Raiders, but with the Broncos also missing Adam Reynolds this week, I think they are actually a little vulnerable.
I’m backing the upset!
Manly’s season is over, but they can still record a consolation win over the Bulldogs in the penultimate week of the 2023 NRL season.
There have been plenty of highs and plenty of lows during Anthony Siebold’s first season on the Northern Beaches, but signs have ultimately been promising, and I am very eager to see what they can produce in 2024.
No idea what’s going on with dropping Josh Schuster this week – I would have thought that trialling the bloke in the back row when nothing is on the line is actually ideal.
The Dogs are rebuilding, but there’s also no denying that they have underperformed in 2023, and boy that have suffered some cricket scores.
The Sea Eagles can win this and take momentum into the final week of the regular season.
Same Game Multi selections:
- Sea Eagles (-7.5)
- Jason Saab Anytime Try
The Knights will look to continue their incredible resurgence at the expense of the Sharks, in what should actually prove to be the standout contest of Week 26.
Seven wins in a row has seen the Knights climb up into the eight, and there’s a case to be made for them being at least second in current NRL power rankings.
They were far too good for Souths last week, but this is another good acid test ahead of the Finals.
I for one believed the Sharks to be down and out just four weeks ago, but they too have returned to form in such a convincing and dominant way, and they’d also be in the top four of powering rankings following their comfortable Round 25 win over the Cowboys.
Given the last month that both clubs have enjoyed, I have absolutely nothing between them, so I think that the value lies in backing the Sharks to cover the line as outsiders.