We’ve got two more weeks of the 2023 NRL regular season and my beloved South Sydney Rabbitohs have fallen off a cliff!
From pushing for a top four spot to fighting for a finals berth, the Bunnies have slid right down the power rankings while Cronulla, Canberra and Newcastle all look to finish the year on a high.
We can all but lock in Penrith, Brisbane and New Zealand for a top four finish but the race is wide open for that last all-important second chance in the finals series.
Let’s have a look at the four clubs in contention for a Top Four finish with two games to play.
Melbourne Storm (4th, 34 points, +137 f/a)
Draw: Titans, @ Broncos
It’s been an uncharacteristic season for Craig Bellamy’s men, who haven’t played with the famous consistency we’ve come to expect from the Storm.
The fact that Bellamy was tinkering with his line-up as late into the season as Round 22 is the best evidence for this.
He knows the importance of combinations and cohesion – particularly in the back end of the season – but injuries and form have forced his hand.
We certainly didn’t expect Young Tonumaipea and Marion Seve to be Melbourne’s starting centres to finish the year.
Despite this, they’re in the box seat to finish inside the Top Four with two games to play.
Currently playing with the fourth best defence in the NRL, a fourth placed finish seems about right for Melbourne this year.
They host the Titans this weekend before travelling to Brisbane to take on the Broncos in Round 27 – a game that could potentially welcome back Ryan Papenhuyzen to the NRL.
Melbourne need to win both remaining games to guarantee a Top Four finish, or win one and rely on their +137 points differential to beat Cronulla or Canberra to fourth spot on the NRL ladder.
Cronulla Sharks (5th, 32 points, +130 f/a)
Draw: @ Knights, Raiders
Just four weeks ago we had Cronulla on the slide and narrowly missing out on finals footy.
Fast-forward to Round 26 and the Sharks have the scalps of South Sydney, Gold Coast and North Queensland fresh in their back pocket and are well and truly in the hunt for a top four finish.
Their defensive improvements have been key to this – after losing 28-0 to Penrith in Round 22, the Sharks have conceded just 9.3 points per game while averaging 31.3 points themselves.
This doesn’t mean Cronulla have changed their defensive systems or are tackling better as individuals. Instead, it’s a by-product of their complete dominance in yardage over the last three weeks.
From Rounds 23-25, the Sharks have averaged 1937.6 running metres per game.
That’s better than Penrith’s season average as the best yardage team in the NRL. In each of those three games, Cronulla have had 10 players run for more than 100 metres.
Collectively and individually, the Sharks are winning the ruck and dominating field position of late, giving their opponents less attacking opportunities and creating more for themselves.
Nicho Hynes is relishing the increased ruck speed and wealth of field position while Connor Tracey is making a fist of his extended time in first-grade, averaging an absurd 218.6 metres per game and contributing nicely in attack.
If Cronulla can maintain their yardage game they have more than enough strike on the edges to turn field position into points.
We’ll get a better idea of Cronulla’s Top Four credentials when they face a red-hot Newcastle side this weekend, but two wins from their last two games should see the Sharks earn a second bite of the apple in this year’s finals series.
Canberra Raiders (6th, 32 points, -108 f/a)
Draw: Broncos, @ Sharks
The Canberra Raiders sit equal with the Cronulla Sharks on the NRL ladder right now, but it’s a bit of an illusion.
There’s a 238-point difference between the two clubs meaning the Raiders need to win their last two games and have other results go their way if they’re to leapfrog Melbourne and Cronulla into fourth spot.
Of all teams currently inside the Top Eight, Canberra have both the worst attacking and the worst defensive records.
They’ve made a habit of winning tight games this season (avg winning margin of just 5.3 points) but those narrow margins are coming back to bite them.
For some context, six teams currently below Canberra on the NRL ladder have scored more points this season and another six have a better defensive record.
When you consider the form Canberra bring into Round 26 compared to the other sides they’re competing with (Sharks, Knights, Storm), the Raiders Top Four credentials are slim.
They play with great resilience and grit but are lacking X-factor in attack with Jack Wighton either injured or down on form.
The NRL appears to have dished up one of the most intriguing final regular season rounds in memory, with competing clubs pitted against each other in Round 27.
The Raiders v Sharks fixture in two weeks could have major ramifications on where both clubs finish on the ladder, although the difficulty of Canberra’s remaining draw suggests a top four finish might just be out of reach.
Newcastle Knights (7th, 31 points, +129 f/a)
Draw: Sharks, @ Dragons
Mathematically speaking, the Knights are the longest odds to finish inside the top four in two weeks time.
The form they bring into Round 26 however might make them the most appealing prospect with two games to play.
I suggested on the pod last week that Jackson Hastings’ absence could hamstring what is a rapidly improving Knights attack.
Those fears were allayed last weekend with a commanding shut-out of the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
This Newcastle side knows its strengths and how to play to them.
Even without Hastings getting them to specific areas in the park last week, the Knights consistently opened up their left edge to provide Kalyn Ponga with positive involvements in attack.
The superstar fullback is arguably in career-form and has helped Newcastle to score an average 36.4 points per game over the last seven weeks.
The Knights attack is firing right now and they’re backing it up with a resilient defensive approach.
Similar to the Sharks, Newcastle are winning the yardage battle and restricting their opponents’ attacking chances.
With an average 12.3 points conceded per game since Round 18, Newcastle have found a winning formula and are arguably the form team in the NRL heading into the finals series.
They would need to win both remaining games and rely on Melbourne and Canberra to drop a few, but their form right now suggests anything is possible.
Even if they finish outside the top four, I’m not ruling out a deep run into the finals series given how Ponga is playing…
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Who do you think will win the race into the Top Four and why? Let us know in the comments!
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com