A few big upsets over the past weekend has flipped the race into the top eight on its head with five rounds to play.
Penrith and Brisbane – and to a lesser extent, New Zealand and Melbourne – are sitting pretty inside the top four, while just two points currently splits places 5th through 11th.
Some of the clubs in that group face burning questions this week as injuries, suspensions and form take their toll.
Two of those burning questions are simple ones; which clubs can make a late run into the finals and which clubs might give way for them to do so?
Here’s what I’m keeping an eye on with five rounds remaining.
Which clubs can still make a late run into the top eight?
Newcastle Knights
The Jackson Hastings / Kalyn Ponga duo might just be my new favourite combination in the NRL.
Hastings isn’t the fastest or flashiest halfback going around, but he knows his strengths and how to play to them.
He consistently gets Newcastle into the right places on the field and engages the right defender in attacking movements.
Not only that, he’s been integral to getting the best out of Ponga – this action against the Raiders last week is the most recent example:
Kalyn Ponga gets a haircut for @sportsbetcomau #TryJuly! 💈#NRLRaidersKnights pic.twitter.com/is2HR4k7C6
— NRL (@NRL) July 29, 2023
By taking the ball deep into the line, Hastings isolates Lachlan Fitzgibbon onto Jamal Fogarty who can’t make the stop on a much bigger man.
It’s a simple action and importantly it’s a repeatable one, too.
With comfortably with the best points differential of all clubs still vying for a finals berth, the Knights could still have a few surprises left for us in 2023.
Manly Sea Eagles
With eight competition points in the last five weeks, Manly are putting themselves in the picture.
The vintage form of Daly Cherry-Evans has been at the core of this, but he’s getting wonderful support lately from Lachlan Croker, Reuben Garrick and, at times, Josh Schuster.
The Sea Eagles are soaring! 🦅#NRLDragonsManly pic.twitter.com/AaVyIJsY67
— NRL (@NRL) July 29, 2023
Put simply, the Sea Eagles need Schuster firing on all cylinders if they’re to play finals footy in 2023.
They’re already in mathematical territory, but his best is good enough to drag them into 7th or 8th spot on the ladder with five games to go.
Whether he can maintain his best for the next five weeks (or more) is the question for me.
Parramatta Eels
The return of Dylan Brown cannot come quickly enough for the Eels who have slumped from 6th to 11th place in the space of five weeks.
Daejarn Asi has filled in admirably for Brown in attack but it’s without the ball where his deficiencies have begun to show.
Melbourne was the latest club to make Asi a target in attack, running in five tries down his edge last week.
That all changes with Brown back in, he’s one of the best defensive halves in the game and can immediately improve the Eels on both sides of the ball.
That being said, it’s an uphill slog into the eight for Parramatta, who may end up ruing the long-term losses of Brown, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Maika Sivo and Shaun Lane this season.
Gold Coast Titans
A heroic performance from Kieran Foran inspired the Titans to an upset win over the Cowboys in NRL Round 22, putting them in the picture for a late run into the eight.
Foran is being well supported lately by the Titans outside backs, many of whom are enjoying career seasons.
Phillip Sami, Brian Kelly, Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Jayden Campbell are consistently winning moments they haven’t previously.
They’re turning half chances into points and getting busy in yardage to offset the absence of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui.
Throw in the work of David Fifita, Sam Verrills and Big Tino when he returns, and the Titans are a very long shot to make the finals, but a shot nonetheless.
How long they can maintain the defensive resilience they displayed in Round 22 is my question for the Gold Coast over the next few weeks.
If someone does make a late run into the finals, which clubs might give way for them to do so?
Cronulla Sharks
Cronulla’s woes against top opposition this year have been well documented.
They play with one of the best attacks in the NRL but their defence and resilience under pressure has been left wanting in the big games.
The fact that Nicho Hynes is in just his second year as an NRL halfback goes some ways to explaining this form.
He’s a wonderfully talented player but his game management and general play kicking is still developing.
An injury to Will Kennedy makes things all the more difficult for Cronulla with five rounds remaining.
Hynes is expecting to move into the No.1 jumper, with Braydon Trindall and Matt Moylan steering the ship in the halves.
On paper, it’s a good move. Hynes will play a similar role in attack despite the change of position, while Trindall and Moylan can steer the team around the park.
How well – and how quickly – the Sharks can adjust to these changes is my burning question for NRL Round 23.
Canberra Raiders & North Queensland Cowboys
Out-enthused and outplayed last weekend, how the Raiders and Cowboys respond in Round 23 is the big question this week.
For two clubs who have built their 2023 campaigns on resilience and effort, both the Raiders and Cowboys disappointed in Round 22.
They both deserve to play finals this season on form, but the closeness of the competition this year means anything can happen.
How North Queensland handle Valentine Holmes’ latest suspension is paramount.
They are just inside the eight at time of writing and need to bank three or four wins from their last five games to guarantee a finals berth.
For the Raiders, their for-and-against might become an issue if they don’t win the games they should between now and September.
I’m watching to see if they take their opportunities against the Wests Tigers this weekend.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Latrell Mitchell made a successful return from injury last week but it remains to be seen how much he can improve the Rabbitohs defensively.
South Sydney played with the second-best defence in the NRL after 10 rounds, but they fell off a cliff during the Origin period.
We’ve heard rhetoric from Jason Demetriou and Damien Cook about Mitchell’s influence without the ball, and we’ll get a better idea of how much he can improve the Rabbitohs defence when they face the Sharks this weekend.
If the Bunnies can get back to keeping their opposition below 18 points, they’ll be every chance of going deep into the finals.
Whether they can recapture that defensive form is my big question for the next few weeks.
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How do you see the top eight playing out with five games remaining? Do you think your club can make a late run into the finals? Let us know in the comments!
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com