AFL Round 24 Tips & Preview

Much like the tips from last weekend, it looks like the AFL backed the wrong horse in making this the feature match of the round and giving us all less than two weeks notice as to when this would be played.

Essendon should be grateful that the Western Bulldogs and the Adelaide Crows goal that wasn’t a goal has dominated the footy washup this week.

The Bombers were horrible last week, can you imagine if we had a wildcard round and this team was still a finals chance?

Anyone advocating for it needs to look to how Essendon has performed to really get some perspective on the concept.

As for this game, Collingwood has lost three of their last four, but playing the hapless Dons on Friday night should give them the minor premiership and some good form/confidence leading into the finals.

Pies by plenty, take the 40+

No one should think that North Melbourne will lose this because they are tanking for Harley Reid.

North Melbourne will lose this game because they are facing a Gold Coast Suns outfit who took it to the red-hot Carlton last week at home and now have a new coach in Damien Hardwick to impress.

While North has lost their past 20 matches, they have been showing some fight in recent weeks having lost their past five by the 1-39 point margin.

The Suns will find a way to win this, and while the line is a -19.5 buffer, I wouldn’t rule out the Kangas getting a sniff but just not being able to finish off.

Gold Coast 1-39 points, sending stand-in coach Steven King off with a win and showing off for Dimma should do the job down in Hobart this Saturday arvo.

The Hawks head into their final match of the year as $1.57 favorites over Freo ($2.45) who have won their past five against Hawthorn.

The brown and gold faithful have been given a lot to be excited about for the future this year and it’s fair to say that Freo is the biggest disappointment this season.

Both teams will be keen to finish season 2023 on a high and can play some pretty attacking football so I’m expecting a bit of a shootout at the G this Saturday arvo.

With the total goals set at 24.5, I reckon it’s a good value play backing the overs in this market.

With the chance to lock in a top-two spot, granting them two home finals at their Gabba fortress, the Brisbane Lions have plenty to play for against the Saints this Saturday.

Both teams are coming off arguably their best wins of the season.

Despite all the doubters, St Kilda, who has been in the top eight all season, will be playing finals.

There’s not as much at stake for the Saints as there might be for the Lions.

Brisbane is now equal premiership favourites with Collingwood at $3.75 and I cannot see them dropping a game at the Gabba where they have not lost all season.

The line is set at -29.5 at the time of publishing and the Lions should be able to cover it.

Why on earth would anyone in their right mind trust the Western Bulldogs right now?

Who would back them?

Last week was nothing short of a disgraceful performance by a team full of talent – and I don’t even barrack for them.

If they can somehow beat Geelong at alphabet stadium, they can still play finals, but everyone knows they don’t deserve to.

While Geelong will be taking long service leave from the September action this year, and it’s likely a few will be rested, you can never not back against them when playing at home.

They’ve won their past 16 against the Dogs at the Cattery and they’ll make it 17 on Saturday night.

The Cats will finish the year on a high and the Dogs won’t. I’m off them.

Geelong 25+ for a bit of value.

Adelaide was robbed last week.

West Coast had an amazing win and did it for Simmo.

This week the Crows will be mad and will take it out on a West Coast side that gave it their all last week in what could be Simmo’s last game as coach (if reports are to be believed).

Here’s hoping the ARC doesn’t need to used in this match, but expect the Crows to cover the line easily to put a full stop on a season of oh so close, and year from hell for the Eagles.

Richmond did everything they could to get the win for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt in their final game last week, one only needs to look at the 31 disposals and 3 goals he kicked last week.

However, after that game, it’s fair to assume the Tigers have checked out for season 2023 and can’t wait for Mad Monday.

While it might be nice for Andrew McQualter to finish with a win, I just can’t see it happening.

Port might be a mathematical sniff to get a top two spot depending on results and should do it easy against the Tigers on Sunday arvo.

Take the Power to cover.

While Sydney has won their past six matches and are set to play finals again, I’m kinda surprised that they go into this game as favorites.

Melbourne will finish in the top four and know how to get the job done whereas Sydney could at least buy the goal umpire a beer for awarding that hit the post that wasn’t  last week.

The Demons are going along just nicely and tuning up for the business end of the season, Sydney should count themselves lucky.

Melbourne at $2.02 is way to good a value bet to pass on.

Micheal Voss and his men in navy blue are on a roll and they face the Orange Team on Sunday night in the final home and away match of the season.

The Blues have won their past nine matches and can make it 10 on the trot going into finals if they are able to beat the Giants – fresh from giving Essendon a good old-fashioned belting.

Carlton got pushed to their limits last week, letting the Gold Coast Suns score seven of the first eight goals, but with the likes of Charlie Curnow stepping in with five and the Blues ability to get the job done in tight situations, there’s a lot to like about them.

There’s a lot to like about GWS this year as well,  but you cannot help but like the momentum around Carlton and they’ll find a way to make it 10 in a row heading into the finals.