There’s never a dull moment in AFL season 2023 and Round 23 is set to be epic from beginning to end.
With the top eight, top four, and top two chopping and changing all the time, how this will all finish is anyone’s guess.
So strap yourselves in for a big weekend of footy and let’s hope to make this epic round of matches a profitable one for the Neds Punters in our AFL Round 23 Tips and Preview.
If anyone has a logical explanation as to why this game on a Friday night between 1st placed Collingwood and 2nd placed Brisbane is at Marvel Stadium rather than the MCG – I’ll give you a prize.
Given that no one has any reasonable logic as to why this game is being played under the roof, I need not stress about giving away something.
Meantime, this clash between the Pies and Lions is set to be a beauty to set up the weekend.
Collingwood got back into the business of winning last week after a little form slump, and Brisbane manage to chalk up the W’s after playing a couple of close encounters in recent matches.
The Magpies have a top two spot just about sewn up, but despite Lions coach Chris Fagan being adamant that the Lions just want to finish top four – they’d love to have two finals at the Gabba and a win on Friday night might just get them there.
It is worth noting that Brisbane has won their past five matches against the Pies – including a 33 point win at the Gabba back on Easter Thursday this year, but their Melbourne record isn’t ideal – at the ‘G or under the roof.
A nice quirk for Punters is that the favourite has won the past 20 matches played at Marvel Stadium and with Collingwood leading the head to head market at $1.75 at time of publishing, along with Brisbane in Melbourne being a risk – I’m happy to back the Pies in this one.
This game will be nothing but a celebration of two legends of the Richmond Football Club on Saturday afternoon as Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin play for the last time.
The chances of an upset here are next to zero, North have lost their past 9 games, the match is at the MCG, and Richmond’s game plan is basically to get down forward and get the ball to Jack.
While the Tigers won’t play finals in 2023, it will be party time at the G and the place will be packed with the yellow and black faithful paying their respects. Richmond won’t stuff this up.
It’s also worth noting that North champion Jack Ziebell will also be playing his last game after 280 appearances for the Kangas.
We’re sentimental in this game and have produced a same-game multi with the three retirees to all feature as they go out in style and the scenes post-match are set to be emotional.
To Ziebs, Cotch, and Jack – thanks for the memories, you’ve all been wonderful for the game.
There will be a fair few Carlton fans reading this thinking that this could be the banana peel game that somehow replicates what happened in the final rounds of last season which resulted in the Blues missing the finals.
I’m here to tell you now – YOU WON’T STUFF THIS UP.
The Blues have won their last eight matches and are arguably the most in-form team of the AFL.
Some may think the Suns will have a crack but that won’t happen.
Carlton means business and a nice road trip to the Gold Coast for a bit of Sun and percentage will be just the thing the Blues need heading into the finals.
This is an elimination final.
Win and you’ll spend a couple of hours in the eight.
Lose and you book the pub for Mad Monday.
GWS managed to drop out of the eight last week after getting comfortably beaten by Port last weekend and Essendon have won some close ones against West Coast and North Melbourne which has hardly impressed anybody.
Essendon and GWS have had some close encounters in recent years, with five of the last six games having been decided by 15 points or less, however, when these two last met back in Round 3 of this season; the Dons could have easily beaten the Giants by a lot more than 13 points having kicked 11 goals 22 behinds for the day.
The Dylan Shiel Cup should be another close one and the tri-bet is a great value play for a match like this.
This could possibly be the hardest game of the round to tip.
Should St Kilda win this, the Saints can book their place in the finals, especially after getting the job done comfortably over the Tigers last weekend with a 36-point victory.
The 11th-placed Cats also need to chalk up the wins if the reigning premiers want to book their place in the finals.
Geelong was gallant in defeat against a resurgent Magpies, with big Jezza Cameron kicking seven with some very interesting interpretations of out-of-bounds along with a vintage Patrick Dangerfield performance.
At the time of publishing, the Cats open the betting as $1.65 favorites but the Saints are a very good value bet at $2.20.
With the game being played at Marvel where the Saints do their best work and the fact Ross Lyon will be out to prove a point, I’m willing to back the underdog in this one.
Another match where the winner can most likely book their place in the finals, the Crows and Swans at Adelaide Oval should be a cracking contest on Saturday night.
The Crows gave their all against the Lions at the Gabba last week, only to go down by a kick, making it seven losses on the trot outside Adelaide and the fourth one by a margin of under eight points.
Adelaide fans have plenty to be excited about this season but a lot to be frustrated in the process.
Fortunately for the Crows this game is in South Australia with a passionate home crowd, and they’ve won six of their last seven at Adelaide Oval.
Sydney have won their past five games, managing to get the job done over the Suns at the SCG last week and have sneaked into seventh spot on the ladder.
Saturday night will be the first time the Crows and Swans have met this year, with Sydney having won their past three encounters over Adelaide.
For what it’s worth, the Crows at Adelaide Oval and the Crows at the line have been one of the more reliable bets all season and I think the -10.5 on offer should do the job in this one.
The Western Bulldogs strategy of week on – week off football is an interesting one this season, but fortunately, it seems that the good Doggies will show up just in time to belt the Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
West Coast head to Melbourne “fresh” from a 101-point belting in the Derby, clearly have checked out for the season whereas the Bulldogs will be reeling from their shock loss to Hawthorn in Launceston.
The challenge for West Coast is to not lose by 100 points in this game, and I reckon Adam Simpson can formulate a gameplan to get some junk time goals late in the last quarter hence I’m taking the 80-99 20-point margin spread on the Dogs in this one, which is seriously good value if I do say so myself.
We’ve all been very impressed with the last two weeks from Hawthorn with major scalps Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs.
The 2023 Hawks are easily the best 16th-placed side in the history of the AFL.
However, Melbourne with top-two hopes and filthy about being robbed against the Blues last week will have everything to play for.
The Demons have won their past four matches and won’t take the Hawks lightly on Sunday.
Melbourne heads into this game as $1.25 favorites and you’d expect the Hawks ($4) after a couple of big weeks to come crashing back to reality.
When these two last met back in Round 9 of this season, Melbourne beat them by 53 points and I’m expecting a similar result in this match with too much for the Dees to play for.
The Dockers and Power makes for a fascinating encounter to finish off the round.
While Freo has been a major disappointment for season 2023, the Dockers have produced a respectable second-half of the season and their fans would have loved every single minute of last weeks derby.
Port Adelaide wants a top two finish which would give them a guaranteed two home finals at Adelaide Oval.
With coach Ken Hinkley locked in for another two years as coach, and getting back on the winners list with a big win over the Giants at home last week, Port should be able to get the job done in Perth.
Take the Power to cover.