Three Irrational Fears for the Rest of the AFL Season

Three Irrational Fears for the Rest of the AFL Season

GuyWhoLikesSport

What do you worry about? Day to day?

For me, I usually start my day by worrying about the woke mind virus infecting children.

Then I move onto how if more kids were in church then they would be safer, happier and more fulfilled.

After I get through those worries, and a few other Ron DeSantis campaign videos, my mind generally turns to football, and seldom is it positive.

Even though football as a visual product is as good as I can remember, this season doesn’t seem to be one for excellence.

There are probably three to four teams that are head and shoulders above the competition, depending on how you class Melbourne.

But there is no Geelong of 2022 equivalent.

Excellence is in short supply.

That’s one of my fears for the rest of the season. They don’t have to be rational, even reasonable, they’re just fears that I’m going to carry through into the finals series.

What if nobody is good? 

 I actually do think that there are a number of good teams.

Really what it should say is what if nobody is great.  

The three best teams are obviously Port, Collingwood and Brisbane. Or are they?

One set of analytics says that the Pies are the 5th best team and have in fact been lucky with opposition goal kicking.

Beyond that, against top 8 sides the Pies are averaging only two more scoring shots than their opponents per game.  

Yes, they are two games clear on top of the ladder but are they even that good? 

The model says that, in fact, Brisbane is the best side in football.

But do you trust them to win a grand final at the MCG? Of course not.

I love watching Brisbane, but they are a Mission: Impossible film, they are eye-catching, not substantial. 

The fact that they failed to even make the 2020 Grand Final is one of the most significant missed opportunities in recent memory, and solidified my opinion of them.

I’ve not been wrong yet, and I won’t be wrong this year especially with Will Ashcroft going down. 

Port might be a bit different.

I actually could see them winning the premiership and they’re the second-highest-rated side on the model, which feels about right.

But again, they’ve just lost two in a row and just lost to the Pies on their home deck in what felt like a final.  

Are any of the top 3 sides actually that good?

Or is this footy’s equivalent of that year The Artist won Best Picture and we all collectively shrugged that someone had to win?

What if only Collingwood is good?

Even despite what that model says, I do think Collingwood is the standout team.

I’m sick of trying to find the numbers that explain why the Pies are actually bad despite the fact that they are 32-8 over the last two regular seasons.

The Pies are breaking statistical models and my brain.

Even worse than the possibility nobody is good, therefore, is that Collingwood is actually the only good team.

Even though they still don’t have a great key forward, Jamie Elliott is playing the role of alpha dog brilliantly up there having kicked 18 goals in the last five games.

It isn’t like they can’t score either, sitting fifth in points per game and first in point differential.

But beyond the numbers, which I got into more in a recent column, the simple fact is that the Grand Final is played at the MCG.

The Pies are going to finish top of the ladder, which means they’ll play all of their finals at the MCG.

They’re 9-1 at the MCG in 2023, with an average winning margin of 29 points and over the last two years, they have gone 22-4 at the ground.

The model might say that the Pies have been lucky, but they’ve been lucky for two years in a row now.

I am pro-analytics generally, but sometimes you have to trust your eyes. Maybe the Pies are the only good team.

What a miserable f****ng reality.

What if Carlton makes the Eight?

I have to tell you, I could not have enjoyed the Blues terrible start to the year more.

Ever since I was at the 2013 Richmond v Carlton elimination final and Chris Judd ripped my heart out, I have thoroughly disliked Carlton.

My dislike didn’t come from on the field but in the stands, to be honest.

I remember Richmond got a free kick early in the game that was probably there and some Blues fan yelled some comment that alluded to the game being corrupt.

Hilarious.

The team that got into the finals on a technicality and actually finished 9th was talking about not getting the rub of the green.

That’s a long way of saying that their bad start to the year truly did bring me a lot of joy.

They had two key forwards, neither of whom were playing that well, their one-paced midfield was showing itself to be extremely one paced, and they were losing games for fun.

It was great. Michael Voss’ stubborn refusal to change anything about how he set up earned him the nickname Missionary Michael.

Well, now they’ve won five in a row (mostly against bad teams and Port Adelaide’s SANFL team) and are now out of the eight on percentage.

The Harry McKay-Ewing Theory is in full effect as Charlie Curnow is getting the Pagan’s Paddock treatment and relishing it.

This Friday night game is kind of the crystallization of all of my irrational fears.

If the Pies win easy, or win close, they’ll either be a better side than the models say or just be a model-breaking team.

If Carlton wins, they probably will make the eight as they get their injured guns back, and they’ll probably make it over my Tigers.

In fact, it’s really just this Friday night that I’m irrationally concerned about.

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