We’ve got seven rounds left of the 2023 NRL regular season, in what is proving one of the closest competitions in recent history.
Just two wins separate the 1st placed Penrith Panthers from the 9th placed North Queensland Cowboys, meaning the race to the top four may well come down to the final games of Round 27.
Let’s take a look at each club’s run home and what they’re playing for between now and September.
For some, it’s a home game in Week One of the finals and for others it’s simply a race into the top eight.
Further down the ladder, those clubs out of finals contention can still build towards next year by answering some lingering questions from season 2023.
As always, this is only my opinion and the comments section is a great place to share your thoughts!
* italics indicates away game
1) Penrith Panthers
Draw: Bulldogs, Sharks, Storm, Sea Eagles, Titans, Eels, Cowboys
Tough or friendly draws are a relative term, and when you’re the back-to-back champs playing with one of the best defensive records in NRL history, every matchup looks a little friendlier.
They’ll back themselves to win four or five (or more) of their remaining games on the way to a likely minor premiership.
The fact that Penrith have maintained their defensive form despite resting all their rep players during the Origin period has put them in a wonderful position with seven rounds remaining.
Ivan Cleary’s men are thoroughly deserving favourites for the 2023 premiership at time of writing.
2) Brisbane Broncos
Draw: Rabbitohs, Roosters, Cowboys, Eels, BYE, Raiders, Storm
The memories of a late-season capitulation in 2022 has Kevvie Walters on high alert with the finals in sight.
That being said, the Broncos are a much better team this time around and have navigated the absence of Reece Walsh, Payne Haas and Tom Flegler smartly.
Adam Reynolds’ kicking game and control is proving the difference in close contests.
He’s making the right decisions in the grind and putting his strike players in positions to have positive involvements in attack.
Their tough run home is offset somewhat by a bye in Round 25, but at full fitness the Broncos can win from anywhere inside the eight.
3) Melbourne Storm
Draw: Knights, Eels, Panthers, Raiders, Dragons, Titans, Broncos
They haven’t been the consistent Storm of old, but I’ve seen enough from Craig Bellamy’s men to be worried about them in September.
Injuries and suspensions have disrupted their season but at full fitness the Storm are still a top-tier side.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been a highlight and the form of Christian Welch and Tui Kamikamica is allowing Bellamy to use his big unit out on an edge to great effect.
They’ve got one of the best attacking spines in the competition – Nick Meaney has been superb filling in at fullback – and the third best defence in the competition to back it up.
With four or five wins from their last seven games, the Storm should finish top four.
4) Canberra Raiders
Draw: Warriors, Knights, Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos, Sharks
What a season for Ricky Stuart’s men.
Four losses from their first five games has been all but forgotten as The Milk won 10 of their next 12 with an average winning margin of just 4.9 points.
Whatever the Raiders lack in class, they make up for in effort.
They’re one of the most resilient teams in the comp and always put themselves in a position to win it late.
Guys like Jack Wighton, Seb Kris, Jordan Rapana and Corey Horsburgh personify this mentality – they’ll compete on everything and effort is often rewarded in our great game.
Zac Woolford has been a shining light this season to beat Tom Starling and Danny Levi to the starting No.9 jumper.
He’s a genuine dummy-half who’s helping get the best out of Canberra’s gun pack.
The Raiders are being slept on right now but there’s every chance they maintain their position inside the Top Four.
5) New Zealand Warriors
Draw: Raiders, BYE, Titans, Tigers, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Dolphins
In his maiden season as an NRL Head Coach, Andrew Webster has completely transformed this Warriors side.
They’ve gone from conceding the most points of any club in 2022 to boasting the fourth best defence in the competition this season.
On the back of their defensive improvements, the combination between Shaun Johnson, Tohu Harris, Wayde Egan and Dylan Walker gives the Warriors an expansive, multi-pronged attack.
They rotate seamlessly between first, second or third receiver, moving the ball from edge to edge and asking questions across the park.
I’m not ruling out a top four finish for the Warriors this year.
Let’s Gone.
6) Cronulla Sharks
Draw: Sea Eagles, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Titans, Cowboys, Knights, Raiders
It’s much of the same for the Sharks in season 2023.
Their attack is up there with the best in the game – Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey and Will Kennedy move the ball better than most – and there is a wealth of try scoring talent on the edges.
Defence is still a concern though. To concede more than 20 points a game on average goes a long way to explaining the Sharks poor record against fellow top eight teams.
They’ve got a challenging remaining draw and could have a fight on their hands to play finals footy this season.
7) Parramatta Eels
Draw: Cowboys, Storm, Dragons, Broncos, Roosters, Panthers, BYE
The red pens were out early when Parramatta dropped four of their first five games, but they showed enough in those losses to suggest they’d be there or there abouts in the home straight.
Their form was hurt by long-term absences to key players like Josh Hodgson, Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Shaun Lane, but Brad Arthur’s reputation as a player developer wasn’t as Brendan Hands, J’maine Hopgood and Bryce Cartwright stepped up to fill the void.
With a fight on their hands to remain inside the Eight, Parramatta may come to rue the occasional poor performance that still plagues this Eels side.
This weekend’s fixture with North Queensland could decide which clubs plays finals footy.
8) South Sydney Rabbitohs
Draw: Broncos, Tigers, Sharks, Dragons, Knights, BYE, Roosters
The Rabbitohs fell off a cliff in Round 12 after sitting atop the NRL premiership ladder courtesy of the second-best defence in the league.
Since then, they’ve conceded an average 29.4 points per game and won just two from seven, dropping to 8th place on the ladder.
A friendly run home and the return of some key players – Latrell Mitchell, Jai Arrow and Campbell Graham – should see the Bunnies improve… the question is by how much?
At their best, the Bunnies are a Top Four side but we haven’t seen their best for a while now.
9) North Queensland Cowboys
Draw: Eels, Titans, Broncos, BYE, Sharks, Dolphins, Panthers
I’m a Todd Payten believer and he’s done a remarkable job to turn the Cowboys 2023 season around.
Some big contributions from key players in the forward pack over the last two months has seen the Cowboys surge up the NRL ladder to sit in 9th place heading into Round 21.
On the back of their improved yardage game and discipline, Scott Drinkwater has lit up the NRL with 22 try involvements in his last eight games – outrageous numbers.
If the Cowboys can maintain their defensive form, they’ll feature in this year’s finals series.
10) Newcastle Knights
Draw: Storm, Raiders, Dolphins, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Dragons
The Knights have improved this season to rank 10th in the NRL at time of writing.
Jackson Hastings has been an astute signing and he’s helped get the best out of Bradman Best, Greg Marzhew and Kalyn Ponga in attack.
Newcastle seem to have figured out what works for them and they’re winning the games they should this year.
There’s still a class gap between them and the Top Eight, though.
A relatively friendly draw could see the Knights flirt with finals footy, but it shouldn’t be considered a failed season if they can finish up somewhere just outside the eight.
The loss of Jayden Brailey was a significant one and might end up the difference between a finals appearance or an early Mad Monday.
11) Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Draw: Sharks, Dragons, Roosters, Panthers, Warriors, Bulldogs, Tigers
The Sea Eagles fortunes rise and fall with the fitness of Tom Trbojevic, who has again endured an injury-disrupted season.
In Trbojevic’s absence, Daly Cherry-Evans, Reuben Garrick and Lachlan Croker have impressed despite Manly’s 7-1-9 record.
Cherry-Evans in particular has enjoyed a career year but it’s too often been up to him to manufacture points.
The Josh Schuster experience has been a roller-coaster and perhaps a move into the No.13 jumper for the remainder of the year will best prepare him for season 2024.
Finals look out of reach from here but the bones of a quality roster are there for Anthony Seibold to build upon in the offseason.
12) Gold Coast Titans
Draw: Roosters, Cowboys, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Storm, Bulldogs
The decision to replace Justin Holbrook with Des Hasler could prove a corner-turning moment for the Gold Coast based club.
Since sacking Holbrook in Round 16, the Titans beat the Broncos the following week before losing their next three matches by a combined margin of just seven points.
On face value it’s not much of an improvement but if you dig deeper into those losses, there’s some positives for Titans fans.
Sam Verrills has immediately improved this side and the form of guys like Alofiana Khan-Pereira, Phillip Sami, Mo Fotuaika and Jaimin Joliffe suggests 2024 might look a little different.
They’ve got the next seven weeks to decide whether Tannah Boyd is the long-term option at halfback, moving forward.
He’s been good without being great this year and still has time on his side, but the Titans don’t.
13) The Dolphins
Draw: BYE, Bulldogs, Knights, Roosters, Tigers, Cowboys, Warriors
A fast start perhaps set the bar too high for The Dolphins in their maiden NRL season.
Effort and discipline – two hallmarks of a Wayne Bennett coached side – saw them win five of their first six games but as injuries, suspensions and fatigue took its toll, the Phins came back to the pack.
The emergence of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow as a genuine superstar as well as the continued development of Jeremy Marshall-King and Isaiya Katoa has The Dolphins in good stead, moving forward.
They’re still a mathematical chance of playing finals but it won’t surprise to see Bennett blood a few of his rookie players over the next seven weeks, with an eye towards 2024.
14) Sydney Roosters
Draw: Titans, Broncos, Sea Eagles, Dolphins, Eels, Tigers, Rabbitohs
A catastrophic season for Trent Robinson’s men. Last week’s loss to the Melbourne Storm all but ruled Sydney out of finals contention, but there’s still plenty to play for in Bondi.
Sandon Smith and Jake Turpin have shown enough to suggest they should be in calculations for next season.
That puts Luke Keary in the spotlight with seven games remaining. So too Brandon Smith, who failed to impress at dummy-half before being ruled out with injury.
The Roosters demand results and it won’t surprise to see some player movement over the offseason.
A few current Roosters might find themselves using the next few weeks to audition for a new contract elsewhere.
15) Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Draw: Panthers, Dolphins, BYE, Knights, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Titans
On paper, it’s been a disastrous debut season for Cameron Ciraldo as an NRL Head Coach.
In reality, it’s been more of a frustrating or disappointing one.
Long-term injuries to key players – particularly in the forward pack – has hamstrung the Bulldogs in 2023.
They’ve used more players than any other side in the competition and their lack of combinations and cohesion is apparent.
With seven games to go, Ciraldo needs to figure out what his backline will look like in 2024.
Hayze Perham appears on the outer and with Stephen Crichton and Bronson Xerri arriving over the summer, there’s some movement to come.
Establishing the players who will fit around Crichton and Xerri is first on the agenda.
Blake Wilson looks promising, Jacob Kiraz has had his moments and the likes of Paul Alamoti, Jeral Skelton and Ethan Quai-Ward will demand consideration.
16) St George-Illawarra Dragons
Draw: Tigers, Sea Eagles, Eels, Rabbitohs, Storm, Warriors, Knights
Another struggling club who pulled the trigger midway through the year, signing Shane Flanagan for season 2024.
Like Cameron Ciraldo at the Bulldogs, Flanagan and interim coach Ryan Carr can use the next seven games to figure out what their side looks like for next year.
An injury to Jayden Sullivan has opened up the door for Talatau Amone to play himself into a starting jersey next year, and there’s opportunities in the backline, too.
Zac Lomax in particular has played on potential for too long, but a big seven weeks could set him up for a breakout year in 2024.
There’s still holes in this roster for Flanagan to fill over the summer, meaning the current players have the next two months to audition for a spot in next year’s squad.
17) Wests Tigers
Draw: Dragons, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Warriors, Dolphins, Roosters, Sea Eagles
It’s gone from bad to worse for the Tigers this year, both on and off the field.
The rumours continue to circle regarding dissent in the coach’s box, which needs to be the first thing Wests address between now and September.
They’re no chance of signing players over the summer with so much disruption and speculation regarding their coaching staff, and it’s spilling onto the field.
Guys like Asu Kepaoa, Shawn Blore and Starford To’a have all shown promise but constant changes to the side have disrupted their development.
Inconsistencies plague this current roster and the latest idea of moving their marquee hooker into the halves is not the solution.
Tim Sheens and Benji Marshall need to use the next month to lock in as many current players into positions as they can, and then hit the market to fill the gaps.
Where do you see your club finishing up this season, and what are your aspirations for the rest of the year? Let us know in the comments!
——————————————————
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com