AFL Round 20 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 20 Tips & Preview

It doesn’t get much bigger than the blockbuster on Friday night at the home of football between Carlton and Collingwood.

It is not the only game that will have big consequences however, with plenty of important games taking place as we head toward the 2023 finals series.

Our full AFL Round 20 Tips & Preview can be found below.

Collingwood vs Carlton
Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.05

Carlton bring a five game winning streak as they take on the premiership favourites Collingwood at the MCG on Friday night.

Included in this streak is a 50 point win over second placed Port Adelaide, and despite being outscored in the second half, a 71 point win over West Coast last weekend.

But the Blues have plenty of injury concerns.

Harry McKay is out indefinitely but add to that list Jack Silvagni, Sam Walsh and Jesse Motlop.

On the flip side, Collingwood are motoring along with little to no injury concerns and will finish as minor premiers, ready for a crack at another flag.

Nick Daicos is one of the shortest priced Brownlow favourites in recent memory and Jamie Elliott is in white hot form in front of goal.

In front of a raucous and likely sold out crowd, this is one that can not be missed.

Have Carlton been bullying sides below them on the ladder or are they a genuine threat to a top side like Collingwood?

Well, they have failed to cover the line in eight of their last nine games against opponents that were ranked in the top eight at the time.

And the Pies have won their last 15 home games.

This leads to one result.

Western Bulldogs vs GWS
Either Team under 24.5 @ $1.77

This is another game that will shape the top eight between two teams that have formed quite a rivalry in recent times.

The Giants bring the longest win streak of any team in the competition having won their last six straight.

A game like this is not only important to secure four points, but also to deny the Dogs of the same prize.

With a difficult run home that includes the Swans, Power, Bombers and Blues, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

The Dogs rebounded from back to back losses to overpower Essendon last weekend in what was another possible eight point game.

This one will take place in Ballarat, a venue where the Western Bulldogs have covered the line in six of their last seven.

From a head to head point of view I am struggling with this one but I do expect a hard fought and tightly contested game of footy.

Geelong vs Fremantle
Geelong -42.5 @ $1.90

Geelong were disappointing last weekend when they travelled to the Gabba to take on the Brisbane Lions.

The Cats struggled up forward and had just three goals with a quarter to play but they were full of running late in the game and with another 5-10 minutes they may have won.

Not a lot has gone as planned for the Dockers this season and they have now lost four on the trot.

Their season will not extend past August and there is no tougher road trip in football than heading to Geelong.

The Cats have won 12 of their last 13 games at GMHBA Stadium and with so much to play for, I can’t see the home team being troubled.

Brisbane vs Gold Coast
Brisbane Lions 20-39 @ $3.50

The season is on the line for the Gold Coast Suns this weekend as they take on their biggest rivals at Metricon Stadium.

Entering Round 20, they are hanging on by a thread with only a mathematical chance of extending their season into September for the first time in their history.

The Brisbane Lions also have plenty on the line also as they set their sights on second spot and a home game in the first week of finals.

Big brother has had the wood over the Suns for a long period of time and the Lions have now won the last nine straight Q-Clashes.

In fact, in seven of their last eight games, the Lions have won by a margin of 40+ points.

I’m expecting this one to be a little closer, but not too close.

Essendon vs Sydney
SGM: Essendon +16.5 and Under 192.5 Total Points@ $1.92

Essendon has dropped out of the eight after suffering back to back losses in the last two weeks.

They were thumped by Geelong to the tune of 77 points and were comfortably outplayed against the Western Bulldogs last weekend, which is a major cause for concern this late in the season.

They had banked plenty of wins throughout the first two thirds of the season which means they are still  a chance to play finals, especially considering just how close things are in and around that eighth spot.

Sydney are one of those teams that remain in the hunt for a finals berth but things are looking tough.

A loss here would essentially end their season, but they head into this game in good form.

The Swans have failed to cover the line in their last eight night games at Marvel Stadium.

The Bombers have won four of their last five at Marvel by 1-39 points.

Adelaide vs Port
Port Adelaide -16.5 @ $1.90

The Showdown is always a tantalising prospect, but with a top two spot is on the line for Port and a top eight spot for the Crows, things have hit another level.

The Crows won this fixture early in the season but Adelaide has seemingly hit a wall after what has been a somewhat surprising and successful campaign so far.

Port Adelaide’s 13 game winning streak came to a halt with back to back losses to Carlton and Collingwood in the last two weeks.

Who wants it more?

Seven of the last eight games at the Adelaide Oval have gone over the total match points line and I’m expecting another high scoring game.

This is going to be a beauty and while Port Adelaide deserve to be favourites in betting, I expect the Crows to give this a shake before being overrun late.

Hawthorn vs St Kilda
St Kilda 1-39 @ $2.25

There is not a team that is currently in the top eight in worse form than St Kilda and they have slipped out to $2.55 to extend their season into September.

An eight point win over North Melbourne was not pretty but they will not be giving the four points back.

The fact is they are in sixth place and with Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane still to play, makes this a must win game.

Hawthorn will view this season as a successful one with five wins to their name but one went begging last weekend.

They outplayed Richmond for three quarters but ultimately lost by one point.

James Sicily has been a bonus for the Hawks since returning from suspension but the Saints simply must win this game if they remain any chance of playing finals football.

With little confidence, I’m tipping they get the job done

Richmond vs Melbourne
SGM Under 165 Total Points & Either Team under 39.5 Points @ $2.37

Another blockbuster at the MCG will take place on Sunday afternoon as old rivals Richmond and Melbourne go toe to toe.

And there’s plenty to play for.

Richmond’s recent record of close wins continued last weekend when they stormed home over the top of Hawthorn to keep their season alive.

While the win showed their grit and determination it was equally concerning to be comprehensively outplayed for three quarters against a team that is not contending.

Melbourne remain in the top four after they accounted for Adelaide by just four points.

Max Gawn is thriving as the number one ruckman without Brodie Grundy and he had 38 hitouts, eight marks and two goals in the win.

Seven of the last eight games between Richmond and Melbourne have gone under the total match points line and I’m expecting a tight and contested game of football.

West Coast vs North Melbourne
North Melbourne @ $1.73

Another 100+ point loss looked on the cards last weekend for West Coast but they outscored Carlton in the second half to go down by “only” 71.

The fact we are celebrating a loss of that magnitude is a real barometer to just how poorly the Eagles are travelling.

North Melbourne will feel they let one slip against the Saints last week when they were overrun in the last quarter to be beaten by eight points.

The level of excitement for the final game of Round 20 is minimal but I think the market has this one wrong.

One team has been at least competitive in recent weeks and one has not.