AFL Round 19 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 19 Tips & Preview

We have some important games of football taking place this weekend.

The round kicks off with the Western Bulldogs (7th) vs Essendon (8th) in a pivotal game for both teams’ finals chances.

The Brisbane Lions (3rd) host Geelong (5th) and Collingwood (1st) head to Adelaide to take on Port (2nd).

Our full AFL Round 19 Tips & Preview can be found below.

Essendon vs Western Bulldogs
Essendon @ $2.10

Essendon has won one game in the last four rounds with their latest loss their most disappointing.

Their trip to Geelong on Saturday evening was a stark reminder of just how far off the pace the Bombers are in terms of premiership contenders going down by 77 points.

The Dogs have the same record with nine wins and eight losses and only a slightly better percentage.

Back to back wins over North Melbourne and Fremantle were followed by losses to Collingwood and Sydney.

The last five games the Western Bulldogs have played on a Friday night they have lost by a margin of 1-39 and the Bombers have won eight of their last nine games at Marvel Stadium.

Richmond vs Hawthorn
Richmond 1-39 @ $2.05

Richmond were looking for a percentage boost last week in Perth against West Coast but they managed to win by just 38 points.

The Tiges are hitting form at the right time of the year and this looms as a very important game if they are to extend their season beyond August.

Hawthorn broke a run of three successive losses by beating North Melbourne last weekend to the tune of 48 points.

They are far from the worst team in the competition but their record against Richmond isn’t good viewing.

Richmond has won seven of their last nine against Hawthorn and I think that trend continues on Saturday afternoon at the MCG.

Carlton vs West Coast
Charlie Curnow Most Goals

Carlton are looking to win their fifth straight game by 50+ points, something that has been achieved only twice before, by Geelong in both 1989 and 2008.

The Cats went on to lose the Grand Final in both those years.

The Blues 50 point win over Port Adelaide was far and away their best performance of the year and they are starting to build toward their best at the right time of the season.

West Coast have made a concerted effort to play possession football in recent weeks which seems like a bit of damage control to avoid such large losses.

They won’t win games that way, but they may just keep the scoring down for large portions of the game.

Harry Mckay’s absence means Charlie Curnow will be targeted a lot and backing him to kick the most goals is my best for the game.

Brisbane vs Geelong
Geelong +13.5 @ $1.90

The Brisbane Lions fell agonisingly close at the MCG last Friday, losing by the smallest margin possible against Melbourne.

They will feel like it was a missed opportunity after leading by over four goals at three quarter time and potentially costing them a chance at finishing in the top two, and therefore not leaving The Gabba until Grand Final day.

The Cats are marking a charge into September, and they have not lost in the last four rounds.

This included a draw of course, but if any team outside the current top four could give things a shake, it’s the defending premier.

Brisbane are simply a better side at The Gabba but Geelong has covered the line in 12 of their last 14 games against the Lions.

Port Adelaide vs Collingwood
Collingwood @ $1.80

We head from a cracker at The Gabba straight into a top of the table clash at Adelaide Oval.

Port were given a bit of a reality check last weekend when they were smashed by Carlton in Melbourne.

They were missing some key personal in that clash, which gives them some excuses but there were many causes for concern in that performance.

Despite the massive margin they did have more clearances, more disposals as well as more inside 50s.

Collingwood keep on keeping on and are now clear premiership favourite on the back of four wins in a row.

The trip to Adelaide is not an easy one for opposition teams but Collingwood has an incredible record at the ground, winning their last seven straight games ta the ground.

Fremantle vs Sydney
Under 167.5 Total Points @ $1.88

Fremantle’s season will not extend into September thanks to just one win in their last six games.

They were thumped by Carlton to the tune of 53 points two weeks ago and then lost by 46 last week against Collingwood.

Sydney kept their feint finals hopes alive with a narrow two-point win over the Western Bulldogs last round.

They have struggled when travelling and have failed to cover the line in five of their last six away games.

I’m struggling with this one head to head but I do think the total points will be lower than the line.

GWS vs Gold Coast
SGM Under 182.5 Total Points & Either Team under 24.5 points @ $2.52

GWS might just be the most in form team in the competition and they now in fact hold the longest active winning streak of any team.

They have won their last five to find themselves outside of the top eight on percentage only.

A trip to Adelaide Oval was a successful one, running over the top of the Crows in the final quarter to win by 14 points.

Gold Coast reaped the benefits of the old adage of sacking the coach and winning the next week when they beat St Kilda at Metricon and they remain just one win (and percentage) out of the eight.

There is no denying this is a must win for them to keep their finals hopes alive.

The Giants have failed to cover the line in eight of their last nine games at Manuka Oval but I’m expecting a hard fought and low scoring game of football.

Melbourne vs Adelaide
Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.05

Melbourne made the tough call to drop Brodie Grundy and play Max Gawn as their only ruckman against Brisbane and it paid massive dividends.

Not only did they take away the four points in a thriller but Gawn had his best game in some time in an absolutely dominant performance in the middle of the ground.

He gathered 29 disposals, laid seven tackles, had 39 hitouts and a mammoth 162 fantasy points.

Adelaide look a team that has gassed out.

Their young outfit had a great half a season but they have now lost three of there last four games and have fallen to 12th position.

All is not lost however, especially when you consider their high percentage and they have covered the line in eight of their last nine against opponents higher on the ladder than they are.

They have, however, lost their last seven games at the MCG.

St Kilda vs North Mebourne
SGM Under 177.5 Total Points & St Kilda -18.5 @ $2.39

St Kilda is another team in freefall at the moment and their young list is giving signs that it’s all becoming a bit much.

The Saints have surprised many during this season so far but they have now lost four of their last five.

They are currently sixth and have North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton and Richmond in the next four weeks which are all winnable games.

Plenty of focus has been on West Coast’s poor form this season but little has been spoken about just how poor North are going.

Granted they are in a rebuilding faze but they have lost 15 games in a row now and were belted by the team directly ahead of them on the ladder in Hawthorn.

This is a game that St Kilda must win and I’m confident they will.