State of Origin Game II Teamlist Analysis

State of Origin Game II Teamlist Analysis

Oscar Pannifex

We’re back for another State of Origin teamlist discussion following the announcement of the New South Wales Game II squad on Tuesday morning.

With injuries forcing changes to both line-ups, Billy Slater and Brad Fittler have made some expected – and some surprising – selections this time around. With veteran campaigners overlooked for Queensland and debuts handed out for NSW, there’s talking points everywhere you look.

Let’s run an eye over the changes to both squads and the discussion around each selection.

Queensland Maroons

Jeremiah Nanai

Without a doubt the biggest talking point in Slater’s Game II squad is the omission of Felise Kaufusi.

The Dolphins backrower hasn’t played since being suspended in Round 12, making it difficult for Slater to pick him this week.

The counter to that argument is that Nanai himself has also been suspended – since Round 9 – and is only 53 minutes back from that suspension having played for the Cowboys in Round 14.

Given QLD’s track record of picking and sticking, and given Kaufusi’s own record as a proven performer in the Origin arena, this one surprised me. Kaufusi is the best defensive backrower in the game and has been a stalwart of the Maroons side since 2018.

Nanai on the other hand is a relative rookie. He’s a fantastic player who will enjoy a club combination with Valentine Holmes on the right edge, and he was a standout of QLD’s 2022 series. He’s also had his share of defensive issues throughout his NRL career so far.

Picking an exciting rookie over a seasoned veteran feels a bit like something NSW would do…

In saying that, Nanai could end up scoring two tries and winning it for QLD at Suncorp next week.

Xavier Coates

This one was a little more predictable, but you can make an argument for a number of other winger options available for QLD in Game II.

Coates has seven Maroons appearances to his name and has performed well in the Origin arena before. He’s one of the best aerial targets in the NRL who can save a poor attacking set with a flying effort on fifth tackle. Given the kicking options in QLD’s arsenal, Coates is an appealing choice on the right wing.

Where he falls away compared to other candidates is in yardage. With an average 109 metres per game, Coates is hardly the most productive ball carrier coming out his own end.

In comparison, Dane Gagai (164m/game), Phillip Sami (158m) and Corey Oates (193m) have all featured for QLD before and all offer a lot more than Coates when carrying the footy in yardage.

Slater clearly feels there are enough metre-eaters in his squad to carry a guy like Coates in his back-five, but it’s something NSW can take advantage of if they’re good enough.

Moeaki Fotuaika

Welcome back, Big Mo!

We’ve been singing his praises on the Neds NRL Punting Podcast for the last few weeks and Fotuaika finally returns to the Origin arena for Game II.

At just 23 years of age, Fotuaika’s best footy is still well ahead of him. He’s a wonderfully consistent performer and has been one of Gold Coast’s best over the last few years.

He’s playing career footy in 2023, though.

With an average 157 running metres per game, Fotuaika is a force in the middle of the field. Throw in 13 offloads and 27 tackle busts from 13 games this year and you’ve got a dynamic, hardworking front rower who does the dirty work (95.4% tackle efficiency) as well as the flashy stuff.

Capable of playing big minutes and highly mobile for a 110kg prop, Fotuaika is giving off real Matt Scott vibes and could end up a 10-year Origin player for the Maroons on current form.

The Unlucky Omissions

Christian Welch has been excellent in clubland since missing out on Game I. He’s a genuine workhorse and arguably the best defensive middle in the game, but a victim of QLD’s depth in the front row.

Corey Horsburgh is another guy who is certainly playing well enough to feature in Game II but just can’t break into a stacked starting side. He missed an important tackle against New Zealand in Round 14 which might’ve counted against him, but he’s thoroughly deserving of 19th man selection.

Kurt Capewell has fallen rapidly down the pecking order in the backrow this year. He offers great utility value but narrowly misses out again to guys like Reuben Cotter, David Fifita and Jeremiah Nanai who can cover multiple positions in the middle, on an edge or in the centres.

New South Wales Blues

Damien Cook & Reece Robson

Wasn’t Greg Alexander quoted as saying the two-hooker rotation doesn’t work for NSW?

The Blues have backflipped for Game II and selected Cook and Robson to cover the injured Api Koroisau.

It’s a good choice.

Robson has been knocking on the door for a while now and profiles well for the Origin arena. He’s the next man up once Cook retires too – it’s easy to imagine a Koroisau / Robson rotation in future series.

Both Cookie and Robson will tackle everything that moves and provide good service – and a running threat – around the ruck.

Robson’s utility value as a lock-forward is a bonus, too.

Mitch Moses

The Eels half has leapfrogged Nicho Hynes to claim the No.7 jumper for the Blues in Game II.

Again, it’s a good choice.

Moses’ kicking game is up there with the best in the business. Where Hynes has struggled to build pressure or win the yardage battle with his boot, Moses does it every week. He’s also a stronger defender than Hynes and profiles well to combine with Jarome Luai on the left edge.

Being an on-the-ball half like Nathan Cleary helps, too. Ideally, the Blues won’t need to change things up too much for Game II with Moses coming in.

He’s arguably the best running half in the game and at 28 years old is an experienced head who knows when to take the line on or play patient with the ball.

He’s a maligned player in the NRL but deserves his selection for this one.

Stefano Utoikamanu

The real eyebrow-raiser in Freddy’s Game II squad.

Utoikamanu clearly has potential but his selection comes at a strange time. He’s putting up career numbers for the Tigers in 2023 – an average 114 running metres and a tackle efficiency of 95.1% to go with 27 tackle busts and two tries – but has hardly been a consistent standout in clubland.

In saying that, with Junior Paulo and Payne Haas (hopefully) playing longer minutes in Game II, Utoikamanu can run riot in short stints either side of halftime.

Still, this feels a bit like picking a guy early and hoping he turns into an Origin player…

Latrell Mitchell

If he’s fit, he’s in.

If he’s in, he could turn this series on its head.

The Unlucky Omissions

Campbell Graham still can’t break into the side with Tom Tbrojevic and Latrell Mitchell available. Against anyone else I’d say Graham was unlucky, but Turbo and Trell Mitt deserve to be automatic selections at this stage.

Keaon Koloamatangi is the surprise omission, for mine. He’s up there with the best backrowers in the NRL and has been superb spotting up in the middle for South Sydney in recent weeks. It’s only a matter of time before he wears the Sky Blue.

It’s easy to feel sorry for Nicho Hynes who was set up for failure in Game I. He wasn’t the best choice for a bench-utility role then and he isn’t the best choice for a starting halfback role now. He’s a wonderful player in clubland but his defence and general play kicking needs improvement if he’s to feature in the halves for NSW in the future.

 

Which selections for Game II surprised you, and which players do you think were unlucky to miss out? Let us know in the comments!

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Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com