State of Origin Game II is almost upon us and for Queenslanders there’s a series win up for grabs.
The bookies have the Maroons as heavy favourites ($1.42 at time of writing) for this one but New South Wales weren’t far off in Game I and have every chance of levelling the series at Suncorp Stadium this week.
Given the changes to both squads for Game II, we can also expect some changes to how each side gets around the field and how they might attack.
Let’s take a look at a predicted profile for both states and where it can be won for the Blues and Maroons on Wednesday night.
Queensland Maroons Predicted Profile
Teamlist Changes: Jeremiah Nanai, Xavier Coates, Moeaki Fotuaika
Queensland played a fairly expansive yardage game in the series opener.
Two- and three-pass shifts early in the count got David Fifita at a retreating defensive line on the left edge, or Reece Walsh into space on the right.
By stretching the defensive line and dragging them from coast-to-coast, the Maroons were able to promote fatigue into New South Wales’ middle right from the kick off.
We’ve talked before about Queensland setting the game up early to win it late, and that’s exactly what they did in Game I.
With some new faces coming in for Game II though, we might expect a more balanced approach in how they work upfield.
Jeremiah Nanai and Xavier Coates are far less productive in yardage than Tom Gilbert and Selwyn Cobbo.
They will still get through their share of work, but the Maroons might need to look elsewhere for metres coming out of their own end.
In saying that, Nanai is an appealing prospect carrying the ball in space.
He can bump off tackles or get an offload away when chiming into the second or third layer of a yardage shift, but he won’t truck it up like Gilbert did.
With Moeaki Fotuaika joining the pack though, Queensland don’t need him to.
With an average 157 running metres per game this season, Fotuaika joins Lindsay Collins, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui and Tom Flegler as the Maroons’ metre-eaters in the pack.
We’ll still see the occasional shift from inside their own half, but Queensland have viable yardage options in the middle and on the edges for Game II, depending on how the contest plays out.
In good-ball, the Maroons have an embarrassment of riches to play towards.
Fifita and Nanai give Queensland two of the most destructive and dynamic backrowers in the game.
Both can brush off a tackle as easily as they can step around it, and it will force the Blues to number up on the tram lines.
If you’re looking for a value try scorer pick, both of Queensland’s backrowers are attractive options.
The gravity of both Fifita and Nanai as lead runners will constantly demand attention from the defence, inevitably creating the spaces for Walsh sweeping out the back.
Walsh’s combination of speed and ballplaying makes him one of the better fullbacks in the NRL when playing out the back of shape.
He uses his speed to invite an edge defender to turn in and when they do, he can pick the right pass to punish it.
He did exactly that to send Selwyn Cobbo over for a double in Game I, and that was with Gilbert and Reuben Cotter as the lead runner.
With Nanai slotting in there for Game II, those backline movements become even more potent.
Nanai and Coates lining up on the right edge will also be an appealing kick target for Queensland in good-ball. Both are aerial specialists who can turn an average set into a good one with a flying effort on a fifth tackle kick.
The Maroons didn’t play for the kick much in Game I but it’s an option for them at Suncorp on Wednesday night.
History tells us they will stay in the contest and put themselves in a position to win it in the dying stages, and it’s not hard to picture a flying Nanai or Coates as the match winner…
New South Wales Blues Predicted Profile
Teamlist Changes: Mitchell Moses, Reece Robson, Damien Cook, Stefano Utoikamanu
In contrast to the Maroons, New South Wales didn’t fire many shots in yardage in Game I.
They played fairly conventional working out of their own end; plenty of one-off carries, halves dropping backrowers under and of course James Tedesco scheming around the ruck.
With Moses in for Game II however, the Blues can fire a shot from anywhere on the field – particularly down short sides.
If Moses spots a Queensland forward filling up at A-defender down a short side, look for him to pounce over the ad-line and run.
Given Tom Trbojevic and Brian To’o will be supporting down his edge, it’s an enticing avenue for yards or attacking opportunities as New South Wales work through their sets.
Reece Robson can complement this tactic nicely. He’s got great vision and regularly targets those short-side channels in clubland with Tom Dearden and Scott Drinkwater.
If he’s not hitting short sides, Moses can use his running game to create opportunities in the line.
The Blues looked for Walsh whenever he filled into the front-line in Game I, dropping forwards back against the grain to target the diminutive fullback defending around the ruck.
Moses’ speed and ballplaying lends itself to these actions.
He frequently skips across field and drops players back under in clubland and we should expect the same on Wednesday night – particularly with Trbojevic who needs to get more involved than he was in the series opener.
Moses also brings an elite short kicking game into Game II.
I thought we’d see New South Wales put boot to ball more often in Adelaide. There was an opportunity to test Reece Walsh’s positioning out the back as well as target the spaces in behind Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans who both have a habit of coming out off their line.
Moses can do just that.
His try assists with the boot ranks near the top of the NRL and he will have a variety of options to kick to in this one.
Jarome Luai and Tedesco are both wonderful kick chasers and Trbojevic at right centre is an appealing grubber target in good-ball.
For try scorer picks, Trbojevic feels like great value ($3.10 at time of writing) given the variety of ways Moses can find him in attack.
Where Nathan Cleary employed a fairly conservative, patient approach in attack in Game I, Moses will fire a few shots.
If he takes his chances and puts boot to ball in attack, Moses’ kicking game could end up a real point of difference on Wednesday night.
He’s not afraid to go down swinging and will take the early kick option or throw the risky pass that the Blues didn’t look for in Game I.
In what is potentially a series decider for Queensland on home soil, New South Wales need a gunslinger in attack and Moses profiles as exactly that.
Who’ve you got winning on Wednesday night, and which players do you think can have the greatest impact on the game? Let us know in the comments.
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Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com