The dust had barely settled on State of Origin Game I as we watched a number of representative stars succumb to injury in NRL Round 14.
For New South Wales, Nathan Cleary is the headline story but Cameron Murray is under an injury cloud too, having aggravated a groin issue.
Throw in the questionable status of Hudson Young, Tevita Pangai Jnr and Stephen Crichton as Game II selections, and Brad Fittler has a few decisions to make in the coming days.
Queensland aren’t without issues themselves, with key forwards Jai Arrow and Tom Gilbert unavailable due to long term injuries.
On paper they don’t appear as crucial as the Blues losses, but Billy Slater must now find replacements for two of his most versatile workhorses in the pack.
Let’s have a look at what changes we might see to the team lists for State of Origin Game II on Wednesday week.
New South Wales Blues
Adam Reynolds / Cody Walker / Mitch Moses / Nicho Hynes
The biggest talking point for NSW is how they’ll navigate the absence of halfback Nathan Cleary.
Hynes is the logical successor having played off the bench in Game I, like Cleary, he’s an on-the-ball half and has been one of the form players in the NRL over the past 18 months.
Concerns around his defence and his recent record against Top Eight sides is the question, though, he’s regularly targeted in clubland and is yet to produce against elite opposition in the NRL.
Mitch Moses was the man Freddy turned to when Cleary was last unavailable in 2021 and is in good form for the Parramatta Eels.
As far as general play kicking is concerned, Moses or Adam Reynolds provide the next-best thing to Cleary’s boot.
Reynolds feels like a left-field option but is an experienced head and has the advantage of calling Suncorp Stadium his home.
He’s playing career footy for the Broncos in 2023 and also enjoys a familiar combination with five-eighth Cody Walker, who is producing ridiculous numbers for the Rabbitohs and could be an option to replace Jarome Luai at No.6.
Given the relevance of club combinations in NSW’s selections so far, it isn’t out of the question to consider a Reynolds – Walker – Cook trio for the Blues in Game II.
Damien Cook
Apisai Koroisau got through 80 minutes in Game I which could see Freddy stick with a one-hooker policy for Game II.
With the potential inclusion of some South Sydney stars though, Cook might become a more appealing option for the Blues at dummy-half.
He’ll tackle everything and offers a nice point-of-difference when rotating with Koroisau around the ruck.
Latrell Mitchell
If he’s fit, Trell Mitt will walk straight into the left centre position for the Blues in Game II.
There isn’t a better game breaker in the NRL and the Blues sorely missed his involvements on their left edge in Adelaide.
They sent most of their attack through Jarome Luai down that side of the field and while he wasn’t poor, Stephen Crichton will never have the gravity of Mitchell when sweeping out the back of shape.
Fans are usually wrong when they say ‘we would’ve won if he played’, but in the case of Trell Mitt, they might have a point.
Keaon Koloamatangi
If it weren’t for an ankle injury in the lead up to Game I, I firmly believe Koloamatangi would have lined up for his maiden Blues jersey on the right edge.
He is arguably the form backrower in the competition this year and a big reason for the Rabbitohs improved right edge attacking unit.
With four tries and four linebreak assists from nine games this season, Koloamatangi is an offensive beast in the backrow.
He runs the best slip-line in the NRL; aiming up on the defending half’s inside shoulder before bouncing overs to receive the pass with his man already beat.
He can tip a pass before the line (Hame Sele has Koloamatangi to thank for getting off the nudie last weekend) or get an offload away (11 offloads) through it, too.
With an average 126 running metres and 31.4 tackles per game at a 93.1% efficiency, Koloamatangi can’t do much more to earn his Origin debut.
Spencer Leniu
Another unlucky Blue in waiting, Leniu was primed to fill a bench role in Game I before going down with injury and losing the spot to Tevita Pangai Jnr.
As far as bench props go, Leniu is the pick of the bunch.
His ability to swing momentum with a bruising tackle or a barnstorming run is up there with the best in the NRL.
He’s a fairly one-dimensional player without a pass or offload to his game, but Leniu is an ultra consistent performer and a real mongrel who looks like he’d relish the Origin arena.
Campbell Graham
The man we all thought would feature in Game I is an option again for Freddy in Game II.
Capable of slotting in at wing or centre, Graham’s strength in yardage and defensive qualities make him a perfect Origin candidate, on paper.
Tom Trbojevic has been cleared to play in NRL Round 15 and will presumably be available for Game II, but Graham is still waiting in the wings and wouldn’t let anybody down.
Kotoni Staggs
When Staggs made his Origin debut in 2022, he averaged 97 running metres with five tries and four assists from 23 games.
So far in season 2023, Staggs has eight tries, two assists and an average 125 run metres from 14 appearances.
What the stats don’t indicate though is Staggs’ defensive improvements.
Previously a poor decision maker and tackler on the edge, Staggs has been greatly improved without the ball for the Broncos this season.
Brisbane have conceded just 34% of tries down their right edge in 2023 and they have Staggs’ refined defensive efforts to thank for that record.
He’s in career best form and is far better prepared for the Origin arena now than he was last year.
If there is a vacancy in the centres for New South Wales, Staggs is putting his hand up.
Queensland Maroons
Felise Kaufusi
He won’t have played since being suspended in Round 12, but Kaufusi will be available for Game II and it’s hard to see him not making the side.
A stalwart for Queensland over the last few years and the best defensive four-man in the NRL, Kaufusi can slot straight into Tom Gilbert’s vacated back row position.
Corey Horsburgh
Big Red continues to put his name up for selection, having starred in clubland since missing out on Game I.
In his last two games for the Raiders, Horsburgh has played the full 160 minutes, run for an average 72.5 run metres and made an outrageous 89 tackles for just one miss.
He also scored a try and made two linebreaks to play a leading role in Canberra’s back-to-back wins.
Capable of playing on the edge or through the middle, Horsburgh offers a similar workrate and utility value as the men Billy Slater needs to replace for Game II.
Christian Welch
Narrowly missing out on selection for Game I, Welch is the logical choice to fill Jai Arrow’s bench prop role for Game II.
He’s one of the best defensive forwards in the game who doesn’t always light up the stats sheet while getting through a mountain of work on both sides of the ball. He’s got a great offload and can play big minutes through the middle, too.
He’s a veteran campaigner and a very safe choice for Queensland to fill the gaps in Game II.
Kurt Capewell
The forgotten man in Queensland’s backrow in the wake of David Fifita’s resurgence.
Capewell has been a wonderful servant for the Maroons in the past but has fallen down the pecking order this season. He can spot up in the middle when needed and offers a different skillset to Tom Gilbert or Felise Kaufusi in the backrow.
There might be a few guys ahead of him at time of writing, but Capewell won’t let anybody down in a Maroons jumper.
Jeremiah Nanai
A hero of Queensland’s ‘22 series and an outside chance of returning to the Origin arena for Game II.
Nanai is just one game back from a lengthy suspension but made his presence felt in the Cowboys big win over Melbourne in Round 14.
With one linebreak, one try, 118 metres and 15 tackles for one miss in a 53 minute stint, Nanai reminded us of his quality last weekend.
He runs a killer line off his half and is an aerial threat on attacking kicks, too.
It feels an unlikely selection right now, but it won’t surprise to see Nanai earn a bench role for Game II on the back of a statement performance in NRL Round 15.
Who are you expecting (or hoping) to come in for State of Origin Game II? Let us know in the comments.
Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com