Just five games will be played in Round 16 of the NRL with State Of Origin Game II looming.
The Broncos, Dolphins, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Titans and Warriors all get a rest, while Origin selections do affect all of the remaining sides and have been taken into consideration below.
All of that means that our usual Thursday night start is staggered a day, and there’s only one match each on both Friday and Sunday.
Even with an abridged program, winners are winners, and you can find my NRL Round 16 Tips below.
Two sides that are affected by Origin selections more than any others are the Cowboys and the Panthers.
We were waiting to see if Origin would switch on the previously terrible Cows and their effort in Round 14, a thrashing win over the Storm, suggested that it has.
They’ve since had the bye, and all of their stars are gone this week, so I’m not too sure what to expect.
The Panthers remain one of the NRL’s benchmark sides and made light work of the Roosters in Round 15, but boy do they lose some firepower here.
Given my lack of confidence in both sides’ ability to get it done, so I’m looking elsewhere.
A reasonably full-strength Newcastle Knights take on a depleted, but also out of form Roosters side first up on Saturday afternoon.
The Knights have been typically unthreatening more often than not in 2023, but their recent form has been something of an improvement, and included wins over the Titans and Sea Eagles in their last four, as well as a hard-fought loss to the Broncos.
They are without Tyson Frizell this week, but the likes of Ponga, Gagai and the Saifitis will suit up.
I can’t put my finger on why the Roosters just haven’t been able to have an impact this season, but there’s little doubt it’ll be even worse when they step out without the likes of Teddy and Lindsay Collins this week.
I totally understand why the market is skewed as it is, but it’s hard to imagine the Knights truly putting another side to the sword.
A historic rivalry is renewed in the west of Sydney on Saturday evening when the Eels host the Sea Eagles.
I have been enormously critical of Mitchell Moses, but he clearly does make a difference at club level, and the Eels will be a little more shapeless without his services.
The Eels did prove too good for the Bulldogs in Round 15, but that club has also been largely terrible again this season, and Moses played out of his skin to secure his Origin start.
The Sea Eagles are without DCE and Turbo – obviously huge omissions, and it’s the reason why they will start big outsiders in the market.
That being said, they really weren’t awful without the pair back in Round 13, and they probably should have knocked off the Knights.
Last week’s win over the Dolphins suggested to me that things might be starting to click for on the Northern Beaches, and I certainly think that they can at least cover the line as outsiders this week.
Saturday night’s game sees the Tigers take on the Storm in Campbell and potentially, it could be a good game.
It could also be, and is more likely to be, a thrashing.
The Storm were awful against the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago, but the spray(s) they clearly suffered from Craig Bellamy did the trick, and they turned it around in a big way against the Sharks in Round 15.
They’re without Origin players this week, but their bottom line is usually still better than a side like the Tigers.
The Tigers would have been without captain Api Koroisau in this game regardless, but his broken jaw and impending two months on the sideline is going to hurt.
With Stefano Utoikamanu’s shock Origin selection also a thing, the Tigers are going to lack a lot of go-forward, and I can see it being a real problem, particularly when they are gassed in the second half.
The Sharks will be eager to bounce back into winning form and at the expense of the Canterbury Bulldogs in Round 16’s final fixture on Sunday afternoon.
I expected it to be the clash of the week, but the Sharks simply were never in the hunt against the Storm and seemingly, it has cost Nicho Hynes his spot in the Blues Origin squad.
SQUAD, that is. Not just team. Puzzling stuff from Brad Fittler, but that’s certainly not the first (or last) time that has been said.
The upside for the Sharks is that Hynes is now available for selection in this game, and that alone will be enough to see them winning this.
This Dogs are awful, and I really don’t see them having much of an impact this week.