AFL Round 16 Tips & Preview

Like many others the Brisbane Lions came off their bye with a loss and it came at the hands of Hawthorn at their bogey ground, the MCG.

They have since strung together two wins against Sydney and St Kilda.

Melbourne stumbled against Geelong last Thursday night which means the Lions are a game clear in third spot but this looms as a huge one at home.

Richmond’s season is back on track after three consecutive wins has them just half a game out of eighth spot.

They currently sit in 12th but with some key personal set to return in the coming weeks including Jacob Hopper, Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland available this week, they can make a real push for post August football.

Dion Prestia will be missing with a calf strain and Tom Lynch is still a while off returning.

The Lions are a different side at The Gabba and have now won their last seven, but Richmond have lost their last three games as underdogs by a margin of 15 points or less.

This is one of the most intriguing games of the round with a lot on the line for both teams.

How much can we take away from Sydney’s mammoth win over West Coast last weekend when considering they were basically playing against witches hats?

The Swans raised the bat by bringing up the double tonne in their 171 point win and they had 12 individual goal kickers and nine of those kicking multiples.

Geelong sits just outside the top 8 on percentage and it was hard not to be impressed with their tough win over third placed Melbourne last weekend.

The Cats lost Jeremy Cameron early in the game and is not available this week but Patrick Dangerfield and Esava Ratagolea should be ready to return.

Both of these teams have been struck by injury and inconsistency throughout the 2023 season but I trust Geelong a little more right now.

If we are talking about inconsistent teams, both Freo and the Dogs fit that profile to a tee.

Three losses in a row for the Western Bulldogs was snapped when they bounced back with a win over North Melbourne before their bye round.

It was the eighth win of their 2023 campaign and they sit in seventh position, a game clear of Adelaide.

Fremantle broke their own two match losing streak by beating Essendon in Perth last weekend but it has been an up and down season to say the least.

Both of these teams have struggled to score at times and I’m predicting a low scoring affair.

Fremantle has lost the first quarter in 16 of their last 18 games.

Adelaide’s woes away from home continued last week with a devastating two point loss to Collingwood at the MCG.

They now have just two wins as the away team and one of those came against Port at the Adelaide Oval.

North Melbourne won the first two games of the season but are yet to secure four points again.

The good news is that they haven’t been belted and have lost their last five by a margin of 1-39.

I think that ends on Saturday afternoon.

Just like the Brisbane Lions, the Gold Coast Suns seem a different football team when playing at home.

They were extremely disappointing when losing to Carlton in Melbourne before returning to Metricon to beat the Hawks on Sunday.

Collingwood bounced back from just their second loss of the season against Melbourne by beating Adelaide in round 15.

In typical Collingwood fashion they had to overcome a deficit late in the game, coming back from 13 points down at three quarter time to win by two points.

The Suns are eyeing off their first ever finals appearance and sit outside the top 8 on percentage only.

Collingwood has won eight of the last nine against the Suns and they can cover what seems a small line to me.

A four game winning streak for the Bombers was broken last week when they went down to Fremantle in Perth.

A record of 8-6 means Essendon are firmly entrenched in the top 8 but they run into a red hot Port Adelaide on Saturday night.

The Power have won their last 11 in a row including wins over Melbourne and Geelong and are almost certain to get the second chance come September.

I’m unsure where the Bombers fir into the grand scheme of things and I’m not convinced they are a genuine premiership contender but they could certainly go a long way to changing my mind by winning this game of football.

I don’t think they will.

It’s been a trainwreck of a season for Carlton and despite beating Gold Coast before the bye, they sit 15th on the AFL ladder.

No James Sicily, no Hawthorn.

Or so it seems.

The Hawks were never really in the game against the Suns on the Gold Coast weekend and they are again without their skipper this week.

They are just one win behind the Blues and have broken away from the bottom two sides in West Coast and North Melbourne.

Carlton broke a string of six consecutive losses to beat the Suns but they have failed to cover the line in eight of its last nine matches following a win.

It’s incredibly hard to trust this Carlton side and a lot relies on them kicking straight and I’m backing they can this week at least.

Melbourne have won just two of their last five games as the head to Alice Springs to take on GWS on Sunday.

But those three losses have been by a combined 26 points.

The Dees covered the line in each of its last five matches as a favourite in the Northern Territory.

GWS have put themselves back in the finals picture with three wins in their last four including the big scalp of Geelong away from home.

They have however, lost 15 of its last 16 matches against opponents that were ranked in the top eight.

Melbourne will be looking to bounce back after the disappointment against the Cats and even without Clayton Oliver, will be tough to beat.

West Coast have not only lost 21 of their last 22 games of football, they’d lost their last 12 straight by over 40+ points.

This of course includes the biggest in their history, a 171 point loss to the Sydney Swans last weekend.

Something needs to change or it will keep happening.