AFL Round 14 Tips & Preview

The match of the round takes place on Thursday evening at Adelaide Oval as Port Adelaide look to extend their winning streak to 11 against the Cats.

The defending premier find themselves in a precarious position out of the top eight with a record of 6-6 in what looms as an extremely important game.

It has been far from smooth sailing for the Cats with injuries to a number of key personal in the first half of the season, some of which will return after their bye.

While a number of Cats are still unavailable they will be bolstered by the return of skipper Patrick Dangerfield who is desperately needed in a very inexperienced midfield.

So many of Port Adelaide’s players have taken giant leaps froward this season and that has been the catalyst for their improved form and record.

Zak Butters, Conner Rozee, Todd Marshall, Dan Houston and Jason Horne-Francis are having career best years and the Power have a great mix of experienced players helping with the load.

Port have come up short enough in the head to head market ($1.60) and I’m struggling to tip them at that price.

Eleven of the last 13 matches between Port Adelaide and Geelong have gone UNDER the total match points line and that’s the way I’ll be playing this one.

Not a lot has gone right for John Longmire and his side during season 2023 and they wallow in 13th position with a record of five wins and seven losses through 13 rounds.

They managed back to back wins against North Melbourne and Carlton before losing to St Kilda before the bye but I’m unsure how much you can take away from those wins considering the position of those two teams.

The MCG remains a bogey ground for the Brisbane Lions and after their loss to Hawthorn, have now just a single win from their last 14 trips to the home of football.

Back to back losses is concerning but the fact they had 101 less uncontested possessions than Hawthorn as well as 16 less inside 50s will give Chris Fagen some headaches.

An impressive six straight home wins at the Gabba will give Lions fan some solace leading into Friday night and they can bounce back to winning form against a team that is struggling.

GWS toughed out a win in Tasmania on Sunday, their fifth of the campaign.

And tough is a great way to describe the Giants so far this season.

Narrow losses to St Kilda and Richmond put finals aspirations on the back burner but they have two wins in their last three games including a win over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium.

Fremantle turned their season around with four wins on the trot before falling to Richmond on Saturday evening.

Despite kicking six of the last eight goals of the game to go down by just 15 points, it was a massive four points to drop at home considering their start to season 2023.

The Dockers have started to play a more free flowing style of football in recent weeks and eight of their last 10 games have gone over the total points line.

I’m not overly keen on either side in the head to head market but I do expect a high scoring game of football.

Two road wins has put Richmond right back in the finals conversation as they improved their record to 5-7 through 13 rounds.

They broke a string of close losses in recent times to beat GWS by a goal and followed that up with a 15 point win against Fremantle.

Both Tim Taranto and Shai Bolton were instrumental in that win in Perth with 35 and 33 disposals respectively.

The Saints have been unconvincing both in victory and during defeat but they hold a 8-4 record this season.

A 14 point win over Sydney was nothing to write home about and there are fears they may have peaked a little early in the season.

There is no doubting the fitness of their midfield and that is where this game of football will be won.

The MCG holds no fear for Ross Lyon and his men and they have won four of their last five games at the ground.

I’m expected a low scoring and close game and that’s how I’m playing from a betting point of view.

The Blues have now lost their last 10 in a row against opponents ranked above them on the ladder after their loss to the Bombers on Sunday night.

Carlton wallow in 15th position but It’s not as if they are beating beaten by massive margins.

That loss against Essendon was their sixth in a row by a margin of 1-39 and they actually had more scoring shots, more inside 50s and more disposals than their opposition.

The Suns are playing good football and they come into this game having won three of their last four before their bye.

Scoring has not been an issue during this period, something Carlton has struggled with and they managed 32 scoring shots against Adelaide in their last outing.

It’s do or die for Carlton and, although it seems simplistic, in order for them to win this game they have to kick straight.

I’m expecting them to take the game on and play a counter attacking style of football.

I can’t bring myself to tip Carlton head to head but the total points looks low.

The Western Bulldogs have slipped to eighth after three losses in a row.

It’s not panic stations for Luke Beveridge and his team however and the Dogs have been competitive despite failing to secure four points in that period.

After an encouraging start to the season for North Melbourne they have now lost 11 in a row but they too have been competitive despite defeat.

They lost to Sydney in controversial circumstances by three points and pushed Essendon all the way to go down by a goal.

This is a must win for the Dogs and because of this I’m backing them to get the job done convincingly.