Following months of rumours and anticipation, teams have been selected, and we’re off to Adelaide on Wednesday for Game 1 of the 2023 State of Origin Series!
As they have done several times throughout the history of State of Origin, Queensland rallied to record a 2-1 series win as underdogs in 2022, and New South Wales will be eager to bounce back and silence their critics this time around.
It all makes for another thrilling series, and the Blues have opened $1.65 favourites in State of Origin betting ahead of Game 1, while Queensland have drifted slightly to $2.20.
Whether you love the Blues or the Maroons, it doesn’t matter! I’ve provided State of Origin Tips for both tribes below.
Check out the Neds NRL Punting Podcast for all things State of Origin!
Queensland
Despite this being played in Adelaide, Queensland is considered the home team in State of Origin Game 1.
In last year’s series opener, they were given little chance of containing what appeared to be a very strong New South Wales team but apparently, no one told Queensland that, and they held on to record a vital win – one that eventually allowed them to seal the series.
Coach Billy Slater has made a few shock changes to his side this year – enforcer Josh Papalii has retired, but Dane Gagai, Kalyn Ponga and Kurt Capewell, all widely expected to suit up again in 2023, have been dropped.
Broncos livewire Reece Walsh will debut at fullback, while in-form Dolphins fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow also returns to the team in the centres. A young forward pack will also feature Origin debutant Tom Flegler.
With something of a view towards the future, Slater’s State of Origin Game 1 side is:
- Reece Walsh
- Selwyn Cobbo
- Valentine Holmes
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
- Murray Tualagi
- Cameron Munster
- Daly Cherry-Evans ©
- Tom Flegler
- Ben Hunt
- Lindsay Collins
- Tim Gilbert
- David Fifita
- Patrick Carrigan
- Harry Grant
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
- Reuben Cotter
- Jai Arrow
New South Wales
Plenty of pundits (particularly north of the border) seem to think that New South Wales should be amidst something of a ‘dynasty’ era, but they have only recorded two series wins in the last four years, despite starting each as favourites.
Coach Brad Fittler has again selected a strong squad (on paper), but that is always the case, and the Blues simply need to get out there and do the job now, if they are going to build a dynasty.
Nicho Hynes has been knocking on the door of State of Origin selection for a few seasons now and finally, he will make his debut in Game 1.
The big, mobile and often times angry Tevita Pangai Junior will make his debut in the front row, while Api Koroisau has won the race to hooker.
Other exciting Raiders backrower Hudson Young, it’s pretty much a list of all of your usual suspects, and the Blues team really does have an experience edge this year.
- James Tedesco ©
- Josh Addo-Carr
- Tom Trbojevic
- Latrell Mitchell
- Brian To’o
- Jarome Luai
- Nathan Cleary
- Tevita Pangai Junior
- Api Koroisau
- Payne Haas
- Tyson Frizell
- Hudson Young
- Isaah Yeo
- Junior Paulo
- Cameron Murray
- Liam Martin
- Nicho Hynes
State of Origin Betting
The Blues have opened $1.65 favourites in State of Origin Game 1 betting and have attracted plenty of support, but owing to the patriotic nature of the series, the Maroons have also taken their fair share of bets at $2.20 (at publish).
First Try Scorer betting is always one of, if not the most popular target for Origin punters and there is excellent value to be found here at Neds again.
Prior to his performance and hat-trick against the Raiders last week, Tom Trbojevic’s selection appeared to be on the fence, but he looks to be back in some serious form, and he is a multiple first try scorer in the Origin arena previously.
His opposite number, Valentine Holmes, is easily the most experienced back at the Maroons disposal this year, and he looks to be the value for Queensland.
Man of The Match betting can also be a lucrative betting option, and the likes of Cameron Munster ($6.50) and James Tedesco ($6.50) have already attracted interest.
State of Origin Tips
Regardless of if you are a Queenslander or a New South Welshman, check out my State of Origin tips for your side below!
Queensland Tips
- Back Queensland to Win @ $2.20
- Back Valentine Holmes to score the 1st Try @ $17
- Back Cameron Munster to be named Man of the Match @ $6.50
New South Wales Tips
- Back New South Wales (-2.5) @ $1.90
- Back Tom Trbojevic to score the 1st Try @ $13
- Back James Tedesco to be named Man of the Match @ $6.50