Having limped through our first Origin-affected weekend of the NRL, all eyes now turn to State of Origin Game 1 on Wednesday night.
In somewhat refreshing fashion, New South Wales aren’t the only state to have made some eyebrow raising selections this time around, as both Billy Slater and Brad Fittler search for a winning formula to kick off the 2023 Series.
There’s only so much we can glean from team lists on paper or the snippets of insights shared to the media. How each team plans to use the ball is very much speculation at this point, but that won’t stop us planning our multi’s or generating some pre-game office shit-talk.
Without further ado, let’s have a look at how each state might play their footy on Wednesday night.
Queensland Maroons
Teamlist analysis
- Reece Walsh, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Tom Flegler, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. David Fifita, 12. Tom Gilbert, 13. Patrick Carrigan, 14. Harry Grant, 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, 16. Reuben Cotter, 17. Jai Arrow
The inclusion of Reece Walsh over Kalyn Ponga is undoubtedly the biggest talking point in this squad. You could make an argument for both, but it’s Walsh who gets first crack in this series.
With four tries and 13 assists from 11 games played this season, Walsh is enjoying career best form in 2023. He’s playing with the same bag of tricks he used last year at the Warriors, but his pass selection and decision making is much improved this time around. He’s picking his moments in attack and is making the try assist pass easier thanks to his efforts in the lead up.
He won’t carry the ball back or defend his own line like Ponga can, but Walsh’s speed and ballplaying can cause New South Wales some problems once fatigue sets in.
David Fifita is the other notable selection. Long accused of a lack of involvement, Fifita is producing career numbers on both sides of the ball this year.
He’s getting busy in yardage (170m per game, career-best) and making his presence felt in defence (avg 27.8 tackles per game, also a career-best).
How Cameron Munster combines with Fifita on the left edge will go a long way to shaping the Maroons attack on Wednesday night.
How Queensland can win
Billy Slater has picked a pack to play a power game through the middle of the field.
Tom Flegler (avg 113m/game), Lindsay Collins (124m), Patrick Carrigan (170m), Tom Gilbert (118m), Fifita (170m), Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (156m), Reuben Cotter (127m) and Jai Arrow (125m) are all strong ball carriers who can both absorb and apply pressure in the yardage battle.
With Ben Hunt and Harry Grant pulling the strings around the ruck, Queensland will try to roll through the middle and get Cameron Munster and Reece Walsh over the ad-line against a retreating defence.
With speed to burn in the spine and centres, short side raids through Walsh should be a feature of the Maroons attack on Wednesday night.
If NSW compress in yardage to combat their momentum, look for QLD to play to the edges and get Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow or Valentine Holmes early ball in space.
History suggests the Maroons are unlikely to chance their arm too much in yardage though.
They’ll play patient and look to drag NSW into the grind, trusting the old firm of Daly Cherry-Evans, Munster or the one-two punch at dummy-half to produce points when they need it.
Queensland love to set the game up early to win it late, and on paper this squad profiles well to do just that.
New South Wales Blues
- James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Tom Trbojevic, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. Tevita Pangai Jnr, 9. Api Koroisau, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Hudson Young, 13. Isaah Yeo, 14. Junior Paulo, 15. Cameron Murray, 16. Liam Martin, 17. Nicho Hynes
Teamlist analysis
While Billy Slater has assembled a forward rotation to dominate the middle, Brad Fittler has gone with a more mobile approach.
Tevita Pangai Jnr and Payne Haas will be tasked with winning the opening exchanges.
He’s as left-field a selection as you’ll see in the Origin arena, but Pangai Jnr (129m per game) is producing close to career numbers in yardage and can help New South Wales win the middle from the kick-off.
From there, it looks like Freddy will employ an expansive gameplan through the middle of the field.
With Api Koroisau creating positive matchups around the ruck and Isaah Yeo, Cameron Murray, Liam Martin and Junior Paulo all offering a pass option in yardage, the Blues can let the ball do the work as they roll downfield.
In attack, Latrell Mitchell is a huge loss but the Panthers combination on the left edge through Jarome Luai, Stephen Crichton and Brian To’o is still a potent one.
Hudson Young is no Viliame Kikau but he offers the same triple-threat with a pass, kick or run option in the backrow.
Expect to see the Blues lay at the right upright before falling into a variety of shapes off Luai down their left edge.
That should leave James Tedesco to sniff through the middle for an offload or scheme down the right side with Tom Trbojevic and Josh Addo-Carr.
How New South Wales can win
In Nathan Cleary, the Blues have a halfback who can pass and kick themselves to a fulltime lead.
He’s the best halfback in the game and an expert at starving his opponents of possession and field position.
Penrith’s attack is hardly the most efficient in the NRL but by taking the percentage play time and again, Cleary is happy to wait for his opportunities with the ball.
That gameplan relies on New South Wales taking an early lead, though.
If the Blues can best – or at the very least match – Queensland in the opening exchanges, Cleary has the tools to defend that lead through until fulltime. That approach is less effective if NSW find themselves chasing points, though.
Pre-line passes, offloads and quick play-the-balls will be key to NSW’s success in Game 1.
By letting the ball do the work, Freddy will be hoping to compress Queensland’s defence around the ruck before shifting to their strike weapons on either edge.
One area the Blues will like their chances is in the spaces around – or in behind – Cameron Munster and Daly Cherry-Evans.
Both have a habit of shooting out of the line in defence, which can create a pass or kick option in behind them.
Given the ballplaying of Yeo and Murray, it won’t surprise to see NSW work towards a tip-pass option in behind the QLD halves or an early kick for their backrowers or centres.
The Blues can also have some joy targeting Reece Walsh on his own try line.
Koroisau is one of the best in the business at isolating a bigger teammate onto a smaller defender in good-ball, and he will be on the lookout for any time Walsh slots himself into the front line.
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Where do you think your State can win (or lose) on Wednesday night? Who are the players you’re expecting to most influence the result? Let us know in the comments!
Written by Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com