The 2023 State of Origin series is just around the corner and speculation is rife around how Billy Slater and Brad Fittler will assemble their squads for Game 1.
With a few players under injury clouds and another round of footy to be played before teams are named, let’s take a look at who’s in the frame for both Queensland and New South Wales.
Queensland
Fullback: Kalyn Ponga & Reece Walsh
Reece Walsh was the form fullback of the competition to begin the regular season.
As he matures as a player, he’s grown more selective with his skillset, using his speed and ballplaying intelligently to help Brisbane to the second best attack in the NRL.
He’s an excitement machine but is still a little raw – some of his decisions under pressure against Melbourne in Round 11 highlighted this.
In the same weekend, Kalyn Ponga produced an all-star performance for the Knights.
There is no doubting that he’s a triple-threat with a run, kick or pass and is a proven performer in a Maroons jersey.
He’s also a better option than Walsh in yardage and when defending his own line – two crucial elements in the Origin arena.
Verdict: Kalyn Ponga
Wings: Selwyn Cobbo, Xavier Coates, Murray Taulagi, Dane Gagai, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Selwyn Cobbo is still a work in progress but feels a lock on the right wing given his qualities as a ball carrier and finisher.
Xavier Coates and Murray Taulagi featured in the ‘22 series but lost the position to Corey Oates for Game 3.
I think that decision was made primarily on yardage, which is why I’m leaning towards Dane Gagai for this one.
Reports suggest he’s on the outs with Slater, but he’s the best metre-eater available and is also a proven Origin performer on the wing.
A big performance from the returning Corey Oates in Round 12 could change all of this…
Verdict: Selwyn Cobbo & Dane Gagai
Centres: Valentine Holmes, Dane Gagai, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Valentine Holmes picks himself and will likely resume goal kicking duties, too.
With Dane Gagai my choice on the wing, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow should return to the position he performed admirably in during the ‘21 series.
He made 20 tackles for zero misses in two games while defending Tom Trbojevic in that series – not a bad return for a rookie centre – and he’s playing far better now than he was then.
Verdict: Valentine Holmes & Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
Five-eighth: Cameron Munster
One of the first blokes picked. Enough said.
Halfback: Daly Cherry-Evans
Another no-brainer for Coach Slater at halfback and as Captain.
Props: Josh Papali’i, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Christian Welch, Lindsay Collins
Josh Papali’i should suit up for another series and has timed his run into Origin nicely while playing for the Raiders.
There might not be huge minutes in those old legs but he’s not going to let anyone down.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui has been immense for the Titans and I’m backing him to improve further without the added pressure of leadership.
Run hard and tackle hard will be Big Tino’s gameplan and few do it better.
Verdict: Josh Papali’i & Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Hooker: Ben Hunt & Harry Grant
The best one-two punch in the game and a key feature of Queensland’s attack. They give the Maroons a point-of-difference around the ruck with their kicking threats and are both tough as nails in defence.
Start with either and bench the other – it doesn’t matter.
Edge: Felise Kaufusi, David Fifita, Kurt Capewell
Felise Kaufusi has been an automatic pick for years now but is arguably playing his best footy at The Dolphins.
He’s the best defensive backrower in the game and a wonderful bodyguard for Cherry-Evans.
On the left edge I’m tipping David Fifita to force out Kurt Capewell on the back of a career season.
He’s not scoring bucket-loads of tries but he’s doing everything else in between and is one of the best gamebreakers in the NRL.
Verdict: Felise Kaufusi & David Fifita
Lock: Pat Carrigan
The reigning Wally Lewis Medalist and one of the best young forwards in the game, the No.13 jumper is Pat Carrigan’s for as long as he wants it.
Bench: Ben Hunt/Harry Grant, Reuben Cotter, Jai Arrow, Tom Gilbert, Lindsay Collins, Christian Welch, Tom Flegler, Kurt Capewell
There are going to be some unlucky Queenslanders to miss out due to such depth in the forward rotation.
Christian Welch is the best defensive prop in the game and deserves selection alongside whoever doesn’t start out of Harry Grant and Ben Hunt.
It only gets more difficult from there.
Tom Flegler and Lindsay Collins are out-and-out props who will play more Origin footy in their careers, but I’ve got them missing out in Game 1.
So too Reuben Cotter who’s had a slow start to the year in North Queensland and feels a good pick for 18th man if he doesn’t displace one of the pair below.
Tom Gilbert and Jai Arrow can play middle or edge and have been in strong club form this season. They’re both mongrels who play big minutes and excel in all key effort areas.
Verdict: Hunt/Grant, Christian Welch, Jai Arrow, Tom Gilbert | Reuben Cotter
New South Wales
Fullback: James Tedesco
Dylan Edwards deserves to be in the conversation, but James Tedesco has a mortgage on the Blues No.1 jumper.
He’s not been anywhere near his best in a poor Roosters outfit but the cream rises to the top in Origin and Tedesco has been the best fullback in the world for a long, long time.
Wings: Brian To’o, Joseph Sua’ali’i, Josh Addo-Carr, Stephen Crichton, Reuben Garrick, Tom Trbojevic
Brian To’o is a lock on one wing which leaves Freddy with a difficult choice on the other pending the fitness of Josh Addo-Carr and Tom Trbojevic this weekend.
Joseph Sua’ali’i has been poor in the centres but is the best ball carrier and aerial target New South Wales has to offer on the wings.
Stephen Crichton is another solid choice despite limited time spent on the flanks, while Reuben Garrick is a genuine winger and a left-field option albeit with a lower ceiling.
Verdict: Brian To’o & Josh Addo-Carr
Centres: Latrell Mitchell, Campbell Graham, Tom Trbojevic, Stephen Crichton, Kotoni Staggs
Trell Mitt is back and strolls into the left centre position, and his South Sydney teammate Campbell Graham looks ready to make his Origin debut on the other edge.
Great in yardage and a strong line runner, Graham’s greatest quality is his defensive reads at centre, which is why I don’t have him on the wing.
Verdict: Latrell Mitchell & Campbell Graham
Five-eighth: Jarome Luai, Nicho Hynes, Cody Walker
It’s a case of incumbency vs form in the five-eighth position, and it could have a domino effect on the No.14 jumper too.
If Jarome Luai holds his spot then Nicho Hynes could settle for a bench role. That means playing with one hooker and Luai the likely coverage option at dummy-half.
Given the Penrith influence and Nathan Cleary’s personal preference, I think that’s how Freddy’s going to play it.
Verdict: Jarome Luai
Halfback: Nathan Cleary
The best halfback in the NRL and one of the first picked for New South Wales.
Props: Junior Paulo, Payne Haas, Jake Trbojevic
Jake Trbojevic is a successful injury return away from featuring in his seventh Origin series in the middle.
He’s not a great yardage merchant but gets through so much work off the ball that goes largely unnoticed.
Payne Haas is a set-and-forget beside him, Haas remains the best prop in the game and can play huge minutes which offsets the lack of depth in NSW’s prop-forward stocks.
Verdict: Jake Trbojevic & Payne Haas
Hooker: Damien Cook & Api Koroisau
Api Koroisau looks like he might be a victim of Wests poor form and the continual development of Nicho Hynes as a utility option.
Meanwhile, Damien Cook is playing some of the best footy of his career and is a genuine 80-minute hooker. He tackles for days and is proven in the Origin arena.
Verdict: Damien Cook
Edge: Cameron Murray, Angus Crichton, Liam Martin, Haumole Olakau’atu, Hudson Young, Tyson Frizell
I liked the idea of Cameron Murray on the bench this series but with Keaon Koloamatangi unavailable and David Fifita likely on Queensland’s left edge, Murray is my guy at right backrow.
He completely shut down Fifita in the 2021 series and can do so again this year.
Angus Crichton and Liam Martin have Round 12 to declare themselves ready for Origin while Hudson Young or Tyson Frizell are the left-field options.
Both have had their moments this year but consistency and defence is the question.
Verdict: Cameron Murray & Liam Martin
Lock: Isaah Yeo
No explanation needed.
Bench: Nicho Hynes, Junior Paulo, Ryan Matterson, Hudson Young, Dale Finucane, Max King, Haumole Olakau’atu, Angus Crichton
With Luai holding his spot in the halves, I’ve got Nicho Hynes as the No.14. He can fill every position in the backline while Luai provides hooker cover.
Junior Paulo is another automatic pick, leaving two jumpers up for grabs.
Angus Crichton is tested in the Origin arena and can play edge or middle, while Ryan Matterson is the less proven but more dynamic choice in a similar role.
Haumole Olaka’atu is the gamebreaker option, even though he’s been quiet the last few weeks but is undefendable when in form and his aerial threat on kicks is a tempting point-of-difference too.
Verdict: Nicho Hynes, Junior Paulo, Angus Crichton, Haumole Olakau’atu | Ryan Matterson
Oscar Pannifex | rugbyleaguewriters.com