Magic Round is over for another year, but there’s still plenty of footy to enjoy as the NRL winds quickly towards the Origin period.
Round 10 tossed up several shock results, and clubs will be eager to either bounce back or consolidate their performances in Round 11, which kicks off with what promises to be an outstanding clash between the Storm and the Broncos in Melbourne.
The Dolphins are on the bye, but eight clubs will be crowned winners this week, and you can find my complete NRL Round 11 Tips below.
We are yet to have a poor Thursday night fixture in 2023 and that record extends through Round 11 with what is sure to be a ripper between the Storm and Broncos in Melbourne!
Magic Round proved to be an extremely difficult one for the Storm, who were battered by the Rabbitohs and ultimately, suffered a pretty comprehensive defeat.
Bellamy’s boys are still quite clearly better than a lot of other clubs, but they’re not in the absolute top echelon of teams heading Round 11.
The Broncos dispatched Manly on Friday night to climb back into first place, and they remain a genuine winning chance pretty much every time that they step out.
I know that we’re in Melbourne and I know that the Storm do have a pretty good record after suffering a loss, but I don’t have anything between these two clubs, so I think that the value lies with backing the Broncos as outsiders.
The Bulldogs and the Warriors will both be eager to bounce back from Magic Round defeats when they clash first-up on Friday evening.
The Dogs showed plenty of fight in their clash with the Raiders, but like many of their previous games in the 2023 NRL season, they simply could not get over the line.
That was their sixth loss of the campaign, and it has meant they’ve fallen to 15th on the ladder.
The Warriors meanwhile returned another tough performance, they were just a little outclassed by reigning premiers the Panthers, who themselves were trying to bounce back from a Round 9 defeat.
I think this one is an open and shut case – the Warriors win it.
The Panthers reaffirmed themselves as a leading NRL contender with a win over a good opponent in Magic Round, and they’ve opened favourites in betting ahead of their Round 11 clash with the Roosters.
They were shock losers to Wests Tigers two weeks ago, but it is fair to say that opponent has improved noticeably since their week off, and the Panthers did atone last week – massive for their continued form and pressure on the competition leaders.
The Roosters, however, were absolutely awful against the lowly North Queensland Cowboys, and they continue to build on their record of the biggest underperformer of season 2023… I thought they’d win the whole thing!
All things considered, I can’t be near the Roosters against an opponent of the Panthers’ calibre.
Souths are nearing competition favouritism and could very well claim it in Round 11 with a big win over Wests Tigers.
Simply put, they have been exceptional.
They were just slightly slow from the blocks at the beginning of their campaign, but Souths have continued to go from strength to strength, and in most pundits’ opinions, they are now the best team in the competition. I certainly think that.
Obviously, the Tigers haven’t been very good at all this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the table, but they’ve improved noticeably since a week off.
After only just missing against Manly, they’ve since beaten Penrith and St George, and are playing with a little more style and confidence.
That being said, they surely cannot beat the best team in the comp.
Same Game Multi selections:
- Souths 13+
- Cody Walker Anytime Try
The pressure is on Hook, and a loss to the Cowboys in Round 11 could seal the fate of the St George coach once and for all.
To be fair, its been another forgettable start to the season for one of the NRL’s oldest and proudest clubs, and a loss to the lowly Wests Tigers in Magic Round underlined it.
Nothing seems to be working, combos seem to be non-existent, and their defences seems to be penetrable everywhere. It’s definitely at the point where something needs to give.
The Cows have been similarly terrible and arguably more disappointing than the Dragons, given how lethal they were in 2022.
They did bounce back into winning form at the expense of the Roosters in Magic Round, however, and could be the spark they need to begin a climb up the ladder?
I don’t trust either to win, so I’m staying away from match betting and the line.
One of the more intriguing matches of the round looms between the Raiders and the Eels in the freezing nation’s capital on Saturday night.
I for one thought that the Raiders were down for the count after failing to fire a shot for the first four of five weeks, but their recent form has actually been very good, and they climbed into the top eight following a Magic Round win over the Bulldogs.
Returning home and chasing a fourth win in succession, I understand their market favouritism ahead of this one, particularly with a cold night predicted.
The Eels’ slow build in form took a hit in Magic Round when they failed to account for the Gold Coast Titans; their first loss to the club for six years.
The being said, the Titans themselves have climbed back into the Top 8, so that loss might not be as bad as it first appeared.
This is another one that, to me, looks as though it could go either way, so I am going to take the value on offer for the Eels head-to-head.
Betting suggests that the tightest contest of the week will come up between the Knights and the Titans in The Hunter on Sunday afternoon.
For about a decade, the Knights have been one of (if not the) toughest clubs to trust from a betting perspective, often knocking off competition threats before losing to cellar-dwellers within the space of a week.
That inconsistency has continued in 2023, but they do step out refreshed this week after being the only club on the bye in Magic Round.
It was the Newcastle Knights this year, but who misses out on #NRL Magic Round next year? Do you agree with the solutions offered by @JharalYowYeh5 & @JaredTimms? pic.twitter.com/OrI6sgdd5R
— Neds (@NedsAus) May 8, 2023
The Titans have been quite frustrating as well this season, but its because they’ve shown glimpses of a genuinely good side, while still doing plenty wrong.
Last week, they returned one of their best efforts of the campaign to sink the Rooster in front of a big crowd, but there’s a bit question around whether or not that will repeat those heroics, particularly away from home. I guess I’m rolling the dice!
The Battle of the Beaches is usually and outstanding contest, but it’s hard to say what will happen with Magic Round losers the Sea Eagles and Sharks do battle at Brookie on Sunday afternoon.
The Sea Eagles returned arguably the toughest performance of the season in Round 7 to defeat the Storm, but they have since been at sea, particularly in losing to both the Titans and Broncos in the last fortnight.
A return home might make a difference? Who knows, it didn’t when they played the Titans.
The Sharks started firm favourites in their Magic Round clash with the Dolphins, but were destroyed.
Genuinely, despite a few nice attacking passages of play, it was easily their worst performance of the season, and a big response is required for them to return themselves to the Premiership discussion.
I think the Sharks will win, but it might be a little closer than head-to-head prices suggest.