AFL Round 8 Tips & Preview

The Brisbane Lions come into this Friday night clash having won four in a row, one of which was a 33 point win over the most in form team in the competition in Collingwood.

Chris Fagan has his team playing a direct brand of football which is evident in the fact that despite averaging the least amount of disposals of any team per game, they have no problem scoring sitting third for most points in the competition.

Back to back losses against St Kilda and Adelaide had many suspect about Carlton’s credentials and I’m not sure the big win over West Coast has answered many questions.

They get an opportunity against a genuine contender in this game but I’m not convinced they should be starting favourite.

The Lions have covered the line in nine of their last 12 games against Carlton and their last three in a row by a margin of 1-39.

Neither of these two teams will feature in September and It’s hard to get excited about a match up between 16th and 18th.

The Tiges have lost their last five in a row including a four goal loss the the Suns last weekend.

Expectations are now low but they get the perfect opponent to bounce back against this Saturday afternoon.

Interestingly Richmond are first for clangers this season with an average of 65.9 per game and West Coast are last with just 55.5.

The Tigers are having no trouble winning the ball out of the middle ranking second in centre clearances and they have more inside 50s per game than any team except Geelong.

West Coast struggled to stop teams scoring and have conceded the most points of any team in the AFL.

I expect Richmond to win this game as well as putting on a big score.

After a poor start to the season, Geelong has found their mojo after winning their last four.

The Cats lead the league in averages for inside 50s, turnovers, marks inside 50, goal assists and trail only Melbourne for total points scored.

The double threat of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins up front has been well complimented by the form of Gryan Miers, Max Holmes, Sam Simpson and Ollie Henry and they have done all this with the absence of a few key personal at times especially in defence.

And they have been exceptional in front of goal in recent weeks.

They’ve kicked 80.45 in the last four rounds.

If it wasn’t for poor kicking at goal, the Crows could have been sitting on top of the AFL ladder through seven rounds.

They kicked 12.18 against GWS in an opening round loss and 7.16 last weekend in a one point loss to Collingwood.

Bad kicking is bad football.

Jordan Dawson is having a career best season averaging 25.9 touches per game as well as 5.3 inside 50s.

This may be the toughest trip in the game as Geelong has not only covered the line in their last eight straight games at GMHBA Stadium, they’ve won their last 12 against the Crows there.

The 2021 premiers are humming along nicely and come into this clash sitting second on the AFL ladder.

They’ve scored more points than any other team in the comp but they have played West Coast and North Melbourne who leak goals.

Gold Coast bounced back from two losses on the trot to beat North Melbourne and Richmond in the last two weeks.

Their other win came against Geelong and they come into this game in solid form.

Melbourne has had the wood over the Suns however, winning their last 10 straight against them I think that will continue this Saturday.

GWS come into this clash against the Western Bulldogs at Manuka Oval having won two of their last three.

The latest of those wins was a tough, come-from-behind win over Sydney last weekend when they showed plenty of fight and determination.

But they have a horror record in Canberra.

The Giants have lost their last eight straight games at the ground.

The Dogs currently sit just outside the the top eight through seven rounds with a record of four wins and three losses.

Winning the football at stoppages has not been a problem for them, they rank second in center clearances and fourth in total clearances.

Contests between these two team shave been excellent in recent times and each of GWS’s last five home matches against the Western Bulldogs have gone OVER the total match points line.

I think the Dogs will get a hold of the Giants at some stage and can cover the surprisingly small line.

Handball. Handball. Handball.

Is this the new gameplan for Fremantle?

The Dockers had an insane amount of handballs against the Brisbane Lions last weekend when they suffered their fifth loss of the season.

Western Sydney lead the league for average handballs per game at 170.3 and the Dockers had 194 against the Lions (they average 164.4 this season).

There’s no doubting Fremantle has been extremely disappointing so far, but their two wins did come in Perth.

On the flip side, there has been plenty of positives about Hawthorn, in particular Will Day who has no problem finding the footy.

The Hawks have been starting games well but being a young side they have struggled late in games.

In a low scoring affair I can see Hawthorn being competitive during the first half.

After a slow start to the season Port Adelaide have hit their straps and have won four on the trot now.

This includes wins over Sydney, Western Bulldogs and St Kilda who will more than likely be fighting for a top eight spot come seasons end.

The Bombers have slipped out of the eight for the first time this season after a heartbreaking loss to Collingwood on Anzac Day and then a bit of a wake up call against the defending premiers Geelong last week.

There has been plenty to like about the Bombers this year and they could have easily rolled over against the Cats last week but they fought the contest right out until the final siren.

Port Adelaide has won 16 of their last 17 day games at Adelaide Oval and while I do think this is one of the matches of the round, the Power will prevail.

It has been a lean period for last year’s grand finalists with injury and form concerns during the last month or so.

The Swans have recorded just a single win from their last five games and they are desperate to get back in the winners column.

A 50 point loss to the Dees and a 93 point humiliation against the Cats was trumped by a brutal one point loss to rivals GWS last weekend in a game they should never have lost.

On the absolute flip side is the Collingwood Magpies who sit atop the AFL ladder with just one loss in season 2023.

Their come from behind wins continued when they stormed over Adelaide last weekend and it is testament to Craig Mcrae’s confidence and belief that they continue to defy the odds late in games.

The question of ‘can they keep doing it’ needs to be put to bed because the evidence is clear for all to see over a fairly large chunk of data now.

I think the Swans will respond in this game but the problem is that they are leaking too many points at the minute which makes it really tough to tip them.

Collingwood has a great record at the MCG but they are too short in my opinion.

Undefeated through the first four rounds of the season, Ross Lyon and his Saints were low key flying.

They have now lost two of their last three but remain inside the top four.

Few admirers were lost in those losses, a six point loss to ladder leaders Collingwood and a seven point loss to Port last weekend.

North Melbourne looked rejuvenated with master coach Alistair Clarkson taking the reigns and they even won two games of football!

But it has been all downhill from there since,  losing by an average of 70 in their last three weeks.

I’m tipping the Saints to absolute run the young North Melbourne midfielders off their legs and cover the line to close out the round.