AFL Round 12 Tips & Preview

The pressure is well and truly on for Michael Voss and the Carlton Football Club as they sink to 13th on the ladder after four losses in a row.

They are also out to $67 to win the 2023 AFL Premiership.

Carlton is not only losing games of football but they have failed to cover the line in seven of their last eight.

Melbourne are having issues of their own and they come into this game having lost two in a row.

Losses to Port Adelaide and Fremantle have been by small margins and they have the wood over Carlton, winning their last seven straight encounters.

The Blues are in desperate need of a response but they have proven time and time again that this is not enough to warrant the effort and competitiveness required.

Clayton Oliver will be missing for the Dees with a hamstring and I do think Melbourne are very short.

At the very least I am expecting the football to be hotly contested at stoppages and when it is in dispute.

I’m also tipping Kysaiah Pickett to kick multiple goals, something he has achieved in six of his 11 games this year.

The cream is rising to the top of the AFL ladder as we get close to the half way point of the season.

Port Adelaide have won eight in a row and are beneath only Collingwood on the ladder.

Five of their nine wins this season have been by 10 points or less and four of their last five by a margin of 1-19.

Hawthorn caused one of the upsets of the season when they beat St Kilda last weekend, just their third win of the campaign.

There has been plenty to like for Sam Mitchell, none more so than his skipper James Sicily who racked up 43 disposals and 16 marks in that win.

At time of publish he has not yet been suspended for a front on bump, but he is more than likely to miss at least this game which leaves a big gap in not only their defensive effort, but their rebound from the defensive half of the ground.

Port has won 17 of their last 18 day games at the Adelaide Oval and I think they win this game at home.

West Coast come into this home game as $12 outsiders and this time last week they started opened a similar price against Essendon.

By the time Saturday night rolled around however they were backed into $6.50, eventually losing by 50, but still covering the early line.

Collingwood is not Essendon and I expect a big win by the most in form team in the comp.

The SGM I have put together seems incredible value in my opinion.

A string of four wins in a row was broken when the Gold Coast beat the Western Bulldogs last weekend, a disappointing loss for the red, white and blue.

They had three more scoring shots, 18 more inside 50s and 83 more uncontested possessions than the Suns but still lost the game of football by seven points.

Geelong has one of the worst injury lists in the competition and the inexperience at center bounces was apparent in their shock loss to GWS at home last weekend.

They were missing Cam Guthrie, Patrick Dangerfield, Rhys Stanley, Max Holmes and Mitch Duncan from the middle and while credit needs to go to GWS’s pressure, it was always going to be tough.

The Cats have won 12 games in a row against teams ranked inside the top eight and this is a game where I would be waiting until the last minute to have a bet in after the teams were locked in.

Dangerfield is a possibility of returning but may be held back until after the bye but Esava Ratugolea will miss a number of weeks with a hamstring injury.

Geelong opened at $2.20 and have already drifted to $2.35 but at that price, and any more, they are the best bet in a game that really could go either way.

It has been an inconsistent season so far for the Gold Coast Suns but they find themselves within reach of the top eight after 11 rounds of football.

The recorded their fifth win of the year against the Western Bulldogs in Darwin last weekend and they stay in the Northern Territory for this game.

The Crows find themselves inside the top eight after an impressive win over the Brisbane Lions last weekend at home.

Like the Gold Coast, they have been a difficult team to assess at times which is fair considering they are quite a young football team.

They were 52 point winners over St Kilda but just a week later were beaten by the Dogs to the tune of 45 points.

Not only have they beaten Gold Coast in 14 of their last 16 encounters, they have covered the line, but I do not feel confident in either of these teams head to head.

I’m expecting a high scoring game and that’s how I will be attacking this from a betting point of view with the Total Points Line being quite low.

Pressure. Pressure. Pressure.

This was the key to the Giants win over Geelong last weekend as they celebrated Toby Greene’s 200th game in style.

It was just the fourth win of their 2023 season, but it was by far their best and they can use this as a launching pad to attack a finals birth.

Richmond continue to lose games but it’s not as if they haven’t been competitive.

They followed a one point loss to Essendon with a 10 point deficit to Port Adelaide on the weekend and while their season may end in August, there is still some fight in these Tigers yet.

Richmond has failed to cover the line in eight of their last 10 games following a loss and the home team has won the last 14 straight games between Richmond and GWS.

For the third time this season Essendon has won back to back games after beating Richmond and West Coast in the last two rounds.

It’s tough on the Bombers to say they were unconvincing in Perth given they won the game by 50 points and they ended up covering the line when the money came for the Eagles.

While it hasn’t been a great season for North so far but there is plenty to like about some of their young players including Harry Sheezel and Nick Larkey.

North have lost six of their last seven by a margin of 25+ points and that’s the way I’ll be playing the final game of the round.