AFL Round 11 Tips & Preview

Both these teams seasons hang in the balance going into Friday night and this is a pivotal game for both clubs.

With just four wins from 10 games, they both wallow outside the eight in 12th and 11th respectively.

Michael Voss is under the pump with his team losing their last three including a pretty poor effort against arch rivals Collingwood on Sunday.

John Longmire has not had a full squad to pick from at any stage of the season and they barely fell over the line against North Melbourne in Round 10.

This is as close to impossible to tip from a head to head point of view as possible but nine of Sydney’s last 13 night games at the SCG has gone under the total points line and that’s how I’ll be playing this one.

Hawthorn recorded the second win of their 2023 campaign against an undermanned and quite simply unmotivated West Coast Eagles outfit.

The Hawks kicked 22.10 to win by 116 points and although the form is tough to line up, there is no denying the fast flowing and skillful style of football they produced.

St Kilda have gone win/loss/win/loss/win in their last five weeks and while their wins have not been by big margins, they still sit fifth through 10 rounds of football.

The Saints have the least amount of points scored against them of any team in the competition and considering five of Hawthorn’s last six games have gone under the total match points line has me predicting a low scoring affair.

And with that in mind, the line seems awfully large.

Fremantle have found their mojo and after a poor start to the season, they have now won their last three in a row.

The latest of those victories came against the reining premiers in Perth to the tune of 29 points.

The Melbourne Football Club suffered their first defeat since round five and third in season 2023.

It was pouring rain in Adelaide during that narrow loss to Port last weekend and there was plenty of merit in the loss.

The Dockers are playing a far more free flowing and handball heavy style of football in recent weeks, so much so that the market continues to get the total points line correct in their games.

Each of Fremantle’s last eight straight games have gone over the total match points line and I’m predicting another fairly high scoring game.

Unfortunately it will come at the expense of Freo.

Despite a 5-5 record the Cats remain inside the top eight through 10 rounds of the season.

Geelong has scored more points than every team except Melbourne, which has contributed to their healthy percentage and allowed them to remain in the eight.

However back to back losses to the struggling duo of Richmond and Fremantle is cause for concern and the double chance is slipping away for the defending premiers.

Despite wallowing in 15th, the Giants have played some decent footy in recent weeks.

They were well beaten by ladder leaders Collingwood but got to within 15 points of the Western Bulldogs and 12 points of St Kilda.

GWS has failed to cover the line in their last nine straight games against teams in the top 8 and this is possibly the hardest road trip in football.

Geelong has led at every quarter in seven of its last eight matches at GMHBA Stadium.

Gold Coast is another team that is playing better than their position on the ladder suggests.

The Suns have four wins and currently sit in 13th.

They have lost just twice in the last five weeks while registering expected wins over North, Richmond and West Coast.

One of the most in form teams in the competition, the Western Bulldogs have won five in a row heading into this trip to Darwin.

Their trip to Ballarat was a successful one, beating the Crows by 45 points and they have won their last six straight games at TIO Stadium.

Gold Coast has covered the line in four of their last five and in a low scoring affair I think they are a winning chance.

West Coast has now lost 17 of their last 18 games outright and their last eight by a margin of 40+.

This includes a 116 point loss to a Hawthorn team who had one win to their name before their game.

Essendon sits just outside the top eight in ninth after recording the fifth win of their campaign against Richmond last Saturday night.

They have scored 22 more points than they have conceded.

The 52.5 point line seems enormous especially considering this game is being played in Perth but with the injury list and lack of effort seen from the Eagles it is very tough to trust they will not leak a huge amount of points.

Essendon should win but the only value I can find is that West Coast show some fight and make it a closer than expected contest.

A one point loss to Essendon more than likely saw the end of Richmond’s finals aspirations in season 2023 and Damien Hardwick had seen enough.

He ended his long and successful reign at the Richmond Footy Club and a fresh face just might be what the Tigers need.

Despite a ridiculous amount of games being lost by small margins, the Tiges skills continue to let them down.

They turn the football over more than any team as well as leading the competition in clangers.

Port Adelaide are flying having won their last seven in a row and they come into this clash off the back of an extended break.

They have won five of their last six off the back of a nine-day turnaround.

A change of coach throws a spanner in the works here and it is always hard to predict just how a team will respond to this.

The game is being played at the MCG and is close to a 50/50 proposition if you believe the market.

I don’t think that is correct considering this is 3rd vs 14th.

Collingwood are the $3.75 premiership favourites having lost just once this season.

They accounted for arch rivals Carlton with ease on Sunday and are pack full of confidence nearing the half way point of the year.

North Melbourne are the opposite.

Alistair Clarkson and his men won the first two games of the season and not only is their coach absent, so too it seems is their effort at times.

It was a much improved effort against the Swans, and if it wasn’t for mismanagement of their interchange they would have had their third win so there was plenty to take away from that road trip.

Bailey Scott collected a game high 33 disposals in that game and also 821 meters gained for his side.

I don’t see a way in which North wins this game but they have played Marvel well this year and  can keep it closer than expected.

We’ve got a cracker to close out the round at the Adelaide Oval.

It was a disappointing effort from the Crows in Ballarat against the Dogs and they have now lost three of their last four.

Those losses came against Collingwood, Geelong and then the Dogs with a dominant win over St Kilda in between.

Brisbane took care of business in the Q-Clash to the tune of 43 points continuing their run of form at home.

I’m finding this one tough from a head to head point of view but neither of these teams have had a problem hitting the score board throughout this season.

Seven of Adelaide’s last eight matches at the Adelaide Oval have gone OVER the total match points line.