Another A-League season draws to a close this Saturday with the 2023 A-League Grand Final between Melbourne City and Central Coast Mariners at CommBank Stadium in Parramatta.
This will be the second A-League decider played at the new stadium in Western Sydney, having hosted the conclusion of the 2020 finals hub between Sydney FC and Melbourne City.
As reigning premiers, City will be the nominal home team for this one however they won’t enjoy the usual benefits with a hefty band of Mariners supporters likely to make the shorter trek down the highway to see their team playing in their first decider since 2013.
Central Coast as a club will have plenty of familiarity playing three of their four Grand Finals in the Harbour City including when they “hosted” Newcastle in 2008, falling 1-0 on that occasion.
They will have no problems claiming underdog status for this game as they try and replicate the feats of Western United last year, stunning the City juggernaut in the last match of the season.
The Path to the Grand Final
Chasing their third successive Premiership and fourth consecutive Grand Final appearance, Melbourne City began their season on a tear, winning five of their first six fixtures before the World Cup break.
They finished Round 2 in first place and never relinquished top spot, ending the season on 55 points, 11 clear of the second placed Mariners.
All three of their defeats came as the away team, losing to Sydney FC in December, a Melbourne Derby as the away team in February and away to Adelaide in early March as a part of a midseason malaise.
As the calendar rolled into April however, they began to find their footing, winning four of their last five as they prepared for another finals campaign.
Following a hard fought first leg that finished 1-1, City rolled over Sydney FC 4-0 in the second leg as the premiers progressed to the Grand Final in comfortable fashion.
Central Coast entered the 2022/23 A-League season looking to build on their fifth place finish from the season before and they produced some of the most entertaining football of the season.
With Socceroos striker Jason Cummings leading the line, the Mariners scored 55 goals and finished in second spot, their highest regular season placing since their 2013 Championship season.
Despite losing promising youngster and impact sub Garang Kuol in the January transfer window, the Mariners continued to win enough matches to stay in the hunt for a top two finish.
At times the Mariners were absolutely devastating, producing ruthless displays to record some massive wins when they were needed the most.
Like their opponents this weekend, Central Coast won four of their last five including a huge 4-1 win in Adelaide in Round 26 to finish in second place.
Following their bye they took on Adelaide in the two legged Semi Final, taking out both legs for a 4-1 aggregate victory.
Head to Head Meetings
Our Grand Final combatants faced off twice during the A-League regular season, with City taking out the post-Christmas meeting 1-0 courtesy of a Jamie Maclaren goal.
Maclaren also failed to convert a penalty during that match and City will feel like the final score should have been further in their favour.
The reverse meeting on the Central Coast had its share of highlights as the spoils were shared 1-1.
Belgium-bound City fullback Jordan Bos scored one of the more spectacular goals you will see with a curling effort just after the hour mark, however that was cancelled out by Josh Nisbet.
Looking back a bit further shows that this has been a fairly one-sided affair over the last few seasons, prior to their draw in April, City had won five in a row and eight of the last nine with a 3-2 Mariners victory in February 2021 the only interruption in their streak.
While City and Central Coast had the two most productive attacks in the A-League, even the most prolific of sides have found themselves blunted come Grand Final day.
It’s a generally accepted premise now that finals of this magnitude tend to be lower scoring, cagey affairs with neither side willing to risk making a mistake that would doom them.
Four of the last five A-League Grand Finals have gone under the 2.5 goals line with City’s 3-1 win over Sydney FC in 2021 the outlier.
All up 11 of the league’s 17 Grand Finals have finished the 90 minutes of normal time with two or fewer goals being scored.
With the market shading a higher scoring affair you can hedge a little bit by taking the price on the lower match unfolding.
Two names jump out in the Grand Final Goalscorer market and it’s the two number nines who have lead their respective attacks with aplomb all season.
Jamie Maclaren has enjoyed another stellar season, becoming the competition’s all time leading goalscorer in the course of a 24 goal campaign either side of a World Cup trip and he will start as the short priced favourite.
Enigmatic Scotsman turned Socceroos striker Jason Cummings has been spectacular this season with his 18 goals crucial to the Mariners success, however what is most impressive is his willingness to play provider.
As impressive as Cummings form has been, he has taken a back seat to the efforts of Brazilian attacker Marco Tulio in the last few weeks.
Tulio has tallied four goals in his last four games including the one to ice the semi final tie against Adelaide.
Similarly for Maclaren, while he is the clear and obvious choice for City, the value bet comes in the form of their x-factor winger Marco Tilio.
With three goals in his last three matches, Tilio could be playing his last game for City before a rumoured overseas move and he looms as a difference maker for the nominal home side.
As for the actual outcome of the match, the build up of the game has been focused on the underdog, Cinderella story of the Mariners as they seek to end their decade long trophy drought.
Should they complete the tale, it would be a deserved triumph after a period of struggle and hardship.
However as we have seen many times not just in football, but in other sporting codes too, being the plucky underdog only gets you so far and Melbourne City have been a step above the rest of the league for most of the last few seasons.
City are the better side and have history on their side as well, it just depends on how long the Mariners resistance will hold out.
If this match becomes a low scoring affair as we expect, City have plenty of experience in these situations and they also have the big game resume to get them over the line.
As long as City scores first, they will be able to see off the Mariners before potentially finding a late goal to ice the win.
GRAND FINAL SGM
- City to Win (90 Minutes) | Under 3.5 Goals | Mat Leckie Anytime Goalscorer