Easter.
A time of acknowledging sacrifice and resurrection.
The same can be said about Round 4 of the 2023 AFL season which takes place over the entire long weekend from Thursday to Monday.
Anyone who’s been getting nine tips a week in the first three rounds knows nothing about footy, but that also hasn’t stopped us from trying week after week.
So we say, enjoy your hot-cross-buns, may the Easter Bunny stuff your face with chocolate and give that we may enjoy a punt while finding a few winners in our Round 4 AFL tips and preview.
In the second-biggest Easter Thursday tradition only to The Last Supper, this Thursday night’s clash between Brisbane and Collingwood is set to be a beauty.
Much has been said and written about the up-and-about Magpies at the moment coached by Lions three-peat premiership hero Craig McRae and Brisbane’s poor showing against the Bulldogs last week, but this is set to be a cracking clash.
This week on the NEDS AFL Punting Podcast, the one and only Jason Akermanis was our guest co-host and in the multi-segment, seemed bullish about the fact that the much-maligned Joe Daniher was going to be the first goal scorer on Thursday night.
Aker spoke on the fact that Joe Dainher doesn’t mind playing the Pies – kicking 3+ goals in each of his last four games against them, if he kicks the first one and gets his yips out of the way – the big fella will be on.
Who am I to argue with a Brownlow medalist?
I’m taking Aker’s tip and backing Joe Daniher for the first goal at $11.
It’s all about the kids this Good Friday as North Melbourne takes on Carlton at Marvel as part of the Royal Children’s Hospital appeal.
The Blues are starting to grind out wins and North suffered their first loss of the season against Hawthorn in Clarko’s spite match down in Tassie.
All signs point to a Carlton win with the Kangaroos unlikely to cause an upset.
Carlton has proven to be a reliable bet at the line having covered in their past five matches, while North hasn’t beaten any team above them on the ladder in their last 19 matches.
Need we mention the red-hot form of Brownlow medalist Patrick Cripps?
Cripps reached a career-high 42 disposals last week against the Giants including 20 contested possessions and 13 clearances – the man is on fire!
Expect Carlton to cover the line and record their biggest win in a while of more than a couple of kicks and Cripps to get plenty of the Sherrin.
This tidy Same Game Multi should get the job done.
This is a bloody hard game to tip.
Will the good version Adelaide turn up?
Are the dud Dockers making an appearance?
Adelaide and Fremantle are a real Jekyll and Hyde prospect.
Both teams are coming off wins from their respective derbies and showdowns, and it’s worth noting that the Crows have actually lost six of their last seven at home following a win (read that stat again, it makes sense)
Yet again, I’ll take inspiration from the Neds AFL Punting Podcast with our man Ryan Cook taking the wire-to-wire option of any other result in the qtr by qtr lead.
Crows in front after one quarter, Freo ahead the next – that makes sense for a game like this.
Fresh from a gutsy win over the Lions last Thursday night, the Western Bulldogs head to the MCG to take on the Tigers.
Richmond managed to cover the line last week against an inaccurate Collingwood and will be delighted to welcome back gun recruit Jacob Hopper and a bloke by the name of Dustin Martin – who’s known to play quite well.
Punters who have backed the underdog have done quite well in Tigers v Dogs clashes recently, with the outsider actually winning the past four clashes between these two sides.
Having said that, Richmond has won their past three straight against the Dogs, and with Martin and Hopper back in side, it can help address their issues inside 50, with the Tigers’ defence being one of their strengths.
Richmond at the ‘G is always a reliable bet and the 1-39 point margin looks like solid value to me…but I would say that.
Both teams were really disappointing last week and will be keen to get back on the winners list as Sydney takes on Port Adelaide at the SCG.
There’s no doubting that the pressure is on Port’s coach Ken Hinkley to turn the Power’s season around or he may be updating the resume and spending a lot of time on seek dot com in the coming weeks.
Playing the Sydney Swans at the SCG is also one of the hardest tasks in football.
The Swans have won their past nine there, and based on recent performances tend to prefer the ‘CG of the S variety over the M.
One bet that could be handy if you’re having a crack at a Same Game Multi in this clash is to take Nick Blakey for 20+ disposals.
Alastair Lynch has made this part of his leg in the Neds AFL Punting Podcast multi.
The Sydney Swans Academy success story (North fans reading this in rage, I see you) is already averaging 21.0 disposals per game and his laser-sharp left boot is always a delight to watch.
Choose your own adventure in this game but take Nick Blakey for 20+ disposals while you’re at it.
How about them Sainters?
How about them Suns last week?
St Kilda is celebrating 150 years, Ross the boss is back and they have been undefeated top-of-the-ladder all week long.
It’s great to see the Saints up and about, as to the Suns who had a terrific win over reigning premier Geelong last week.
St Kilda will head into this game as $1.46 favorites at the time of publishing and have won their past seven over the Suns, you simply can’t go past the Saints under the roof at Marvel.
For a bit of value and a good one for Same Game Multis, take Jack “Snags” Higgins to kick 2+.
Along with his former Richmond teammate Dan Butler, he booted 4 in the Saints’ big birthday win over the Bombers and now averages a goal per game this season.
That average is set to increase now that he’s found the mojo and I’ll ride the hot hand… or boot.
I have no idea who or what to back in this one.
The Giants had plenty of chances to get over Carlton last week, even before the umpire paid THAT free kick for dissent and Essendon didn’t show up in the first quarter against St Kilda.
Under the lid at Marvel on Easter Sunday, who gets the chocolates is yet another head-scratcher depending on what team turns up.
It is worth noting that the last five matches involving the Bombers have gone over the total points line, and Marvel’s perfect conditions are good for that.
Let’s back the over, hope for a high-scoring contest, and may the best team win.
Melbourne will win this game.
Probably by a lot.
West Coast is a sore and sorry sight after an injury-plagued Derby and the Demons are ticking along very nicely as they prepare to return to the place of their 2021 Grand Final triumph.
The line has been set at -45.5 the Demons way, but I’m just going to do nothing fancy and get the win here.
Back the Demons to lead at every quarter.
Money for jam…or a cheese board, and whatever other Demon fan stereotypes fit here…
Bottom of the ladder Geelong takes on 17th placed Hawthorn on Easter Monday.
Geez, that was a lot of fun to write and I never thought I’d be able to construct that sentence!
Hawthorn had their first win over the Kangaroos/Clarko last week and the Cats appear to have a bit of a hangover of the premiership variety.
Surely, Geelong has had a chance to drink a couple of blue powerades and chow down on a Zinger box along with a nap/early bedtime to get rid of that hangover and get their first win over the season over the young Hawks.
Just about every Hawthorn fan has a screenshot of the ladder with them being above the Cats, normal programming must resume.
The Cats open as $1.17 head-to-head favorites with the line giving them a -32.5 head start, surely they can cover it?
As much as we’d all love another Cats-Hawks classic, at the end of the day Geelong needs to get back on the winner’s list and get the job done on Monday.
Cats to cover.