We’re just 16 games into the 2023 NRL regular season and the homework is already piling up. A few of our preseason predictions have already been thrown out the window and we’re learning plenty about some of the less fancied sides in the competition.
Premiership heavyweights like the Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys and Storm are figuring it out on the run as they adjust to personnel changes, horrific injury tolls and the pressure that comes with being a top contender in 2022. On the flip side, improving clubs like the Bulldogs, Dragons, Broncos, Warriors and Dolphins have made us pause and reconsider any preconceived expectations around their 2023 form.
Anyone who thinks they’ve got a perfect read on the competition after two rounds is either kidding themselves or riding a wave of good luck in the tipping department. With so much to consider, let’s look at what we’ve learned so far and what requires further study in Round 3.
A Competitive Competition
One of the key positives we can take from the opening rounds is the closeness of the 2023 competition. We’ve been treated to some genuine nail-biters in the last fortnight – some of those close contests were expected while others were outright surprises.
The competitiveness of games so far this season is backed up by the numbers.
Across the opening two rounds of 2022 we saw five games (31.25%) blowout to a 13+ margin. This season though, just three matches had a clear winner well before fulltime at a rate of 18.75%. That’s a jump of 12.5% which isn’t astronomical but isn’t indifferent, either. When you consider the Storm kept the margin to 14 points against the Bulldogs in Round 2 despite missing more than half their starting side – and when you consider Eli Katoa’s contentious disallowed try – we could’ve had just two 13+ winners from 16 games to kick-off the year.
The player transfer market and a new NRL franchise can be thanked for this trend. The Dolphins didn’t get their marquee player (or did they – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, anyone?) for their debut season but they did manage to scoop some cream off the top of a few rival clubs. Elsewhere, key players in key positions have strengthened weaker sides while helping to bring the top sides back to the pack. The Wests Tigers are the outlier at time of writing but probably need more time for their new signings and playing style to have their full effect.
Overall, it’s profiling as one of the tighter competitions in recent memory and we’ve got another 30-odd weeks to lap it all up.
Short drop-outs
More than a few NRL clubs seem to be following the trend of attempting short drop-outs this season. The Rabbitohs and Panthers were the main proponents of this strategy in 2022 but they’re no longer on their own. I don’t have access to the numbers for this stat, but it’s something worth keeping an eye on as the year progresses.
When – not if – to attempt the short drop-out seems to be the question in 2023.
If you’re down by a margin of 4 or 10 points, it’s probably not the time to risk gifting an easy conversion from right in front. We saw a few teams in Round 2 concede a cheap two points by attempting the short drop-out at the wrong time given the context of the game.
As always, the good clubs will get it right and the lesser clubs will not.
New Year, New Me
The grass isn’t always greener on the other side, but there are a few players already relishing a change of scenery this year. This isn’t an exhaustive list, but the four players below have stood out for their new clubs across the opening two rounds.
Reece Walsh – A superb club debut and an ominous warning to the rest of the competition. Walsh burst onto the scene in 2021 but struggled to have the same impact last season. Playing behind the worst yardage pack and the worst defence in the competition didn’t help, as evident in his involvements for a winning Broncos side last week. His speed off the mark is elite and made Peta Hiku – an experienced campaigner coming off a career year in 2022 – look silly a few times in Round 2, but it was his pass selection that impressed most as Brisbane won the latest instalment of the QLD derby. He was guilty of rolling the dice too often as a ballplayer for the Warriors last year but the timing and execution of his passes on the weekend were much improved. His combination with Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam could become one of the best in the NRL on current trajectory.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow – Sitting pretty on top of the Dally M leader board after two games, Tabuai-Fidow has impressed with both the quality and quantity of his involvements for The Dolphins NRL club.
I know the Dolphins sample size is small and I know his minutes were limited in most of those Cowboys appearances, but I don't think anyone can argue with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow's productivity for @TheDolphinsNRL in 2023.
Highly involved and highly effective up and down the field. pic.twitter.com/1Ev6yAlz5D
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) March 14, 2023
His work rate and effectiveness in yardage has surprised just as much as the soft-hands and positional play out the back of shape. ‘The Hammer’ is proving a very capable NRL fullback and a lovely foil for Sean O’Sullivan and Isaiya Katoa in the spine. The challenge now is to maintain this level of output across 27 weeks of the regular season… and maybe beyond.
J’Maine Hopgood – To suggest he’s a superstar in the making would be to disregard the tremendous work Hopgood has already done for the Parramatta Eels in 2023. Just 11 games into his NRL career, Hopgood is profiling as an Isaah Yeo / Cameron Murray type lock – the best complement you could give to a young middle forward. He gets through a ridiculous amount of work on both sides of the ball and still has the skillset and gas to produce a late pass or offload to a teammate in support. He’s yet to enjoy a winning change room this season but that will change if Hopgood continues putting up the numbers he is.
Jackson Hastings – Rather than focussing on all the nonsense after fulltime, have a look at the impact Hastings had for the Newcastle Knights in Round 2. They simply do not win that game without his composure and control across the 80 minutes. He had a leading role in both first half tries and then managed the game expertly – despite being down to 12 men for 25 minutes – to hold off a desperate Tigers outfit. Hastings is a maligned figure in rugby league but he’s a favourite of ours at Rugby League Writers and an integral member of the Knights 2023 squad.
Round 3 Homework
There’s a few things on my watchlist for Round 3 and none more so than tracking the embattled Wests Tigers. They’ve played out an ugly, confused and disappointing 160 minutes so far this season but I’m not giving up on them yet. There is too much class in Koroisau, Doueihi, Papali’i and Bateman for this side not to improve, but they need to do so quickly. Simplifying the gameplan and allowing Koroisau to control sets from dummy-half needs to be the first stop in their 2023 journey.
Josh Schuster is expected to return this week and it spells danger for every right-edge defensive unit in the competition. Schuster’s ability to straighten an attack before passing out the back perfectly complements Tom Trbojevic’s speed and positioning in Manly’s backline movements. They could be one of the better half / fullback pairings in the competition if they can stay on the field.
Squad depth is a key facet of any premiership push and we’ve already had a good look at how the Storm, Roosters and Rabbitohs might fair in this regard in 2023. The Warriors, Cowboys and Raiders likely join that list this week and I’m interested to see how they manage injuries or suspensions to key players. I’m also keeping an eye on the Panthers. They’ve enjoyed a relatively healthy playing squad over the last three seasons but with Taylan May (ACL) already ruled out and both Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai picking up niggles last week, it’s something to keep an eye on when they return from the bye in Round 4.
Oscar Pannifex
Rugby League Writers