With three weeks of data under the belt, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of the 2023 NRL season. A few lesser sides from last year are enjoying immediate improvements this time around thanks to either a new head coach (NZ Warriors, The Dolphins, Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles), a new playing roster (Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans) or a combination of the two (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), making for some exciting if not hopeful early season reactions.
Not every Monday video review session this week would have been positive, though.
The Melbourne Storm, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Parramatta Eels and North Queensland Cowboys are a few yards off their 2022 pace as they navigate injuries and suspensions to key players, but history suggests that these clubs will figure things out sooner rather than later. Looking further down the ladder, the embattled Wests Tigers are still searching for answers and its harder to gauge how close they are to finding them.
As we look ahead to Round 4, lets dive into some of the popular early season overreactions doing the rounds in the NRL this week…
What’s the Matter, Parramatta?
The crisis merchants are having a field day with the Parramatta Eels starting the 2023 season with three straight losses. The Eels were already a team everybody loves to hate and the addition of Josh Hodgson – one of the most divisive figures in the game right now – has done little to calm the waters. Neither has the absence of Ryan Matterson to begin the year. Throw in the debate around Brad Arthur’s use of his interchanges and you’ve got a club that can’t seem to escape criticism in 2023. In reality though, the Eels are not that far off the pace.
Just about everyone in rugby league has voiced their opinion on Matterson’s choice to miss games rather than pay a fine. In Round 4 though, Matterson himself gets a chance to reply.
At his best, Matterson is an elite edge or middle forward who is as effective in yardage as he is a distributor in good-ball. His ability to get a late offload away can improve what is already a top forward pack this season (avg. 1,813 running metres, ranked 4th) and the prospect of him linking with Hodgson in attack is a match made in heaven, on paper. Hodgson can engage markers and ruck defenders as well as any hooker in the game, and the space that creates two or three channels wider is perfect for a guy like Matterson who can tip to a forward teammate at the line.
With Shaun Lane’s return just around the corner too, the Eels can build their way into the year despite a slow start. Losing by four points to three sides we expect to be there at the business end of the season isn’t as dire as the 0-and-3 record reads, either. As eager as we all seem to be to write off the Eels in 2023, I’m not prepared to rule them out just yet — even if they lose to the Panthers and Roosters in the next fortnight. Whether or not a premiership is out of reach by then, the Eels should still play finals footy in season 2023.
Trouble in Tigertown
I’m less optimistic about the Tigers this season. It’s a painfully familiar road for Wests fans as they slump to three consecutive losses to begin the year, but what’s most frustrating for the Tigers is the nature of those losses. Despite a new coaching staff and an influx of new players in key positions, the same issues are plaguing the Tigers in 2023.
There is a serious lack of control and direction in Wests attack. Cohesion also seems to be a problem, three games in. We can excuse the Tigers spine for not clicking straight away, but it’s difficult to even see what they’re building towards in attack. Tackles are played out in isolation and when the offloads stick, Wests don’t seem to know what to do with the space created.
Getting more support around Api Koroisau when he darts from dummy-half needs to be the first change. He tried to play on the back of some ruck speed in Round 3 but was isolated around the ruck without a teammate in support. In the post-game, Koroisau spoke about the Tigers needing to adjust to ‘front-foot footy’ and learn to react to the speed of the ruck. It’s an area Adam Doueihi and Luke Brooks should thrive in given both their strengths as ball runners, but we’re yet to see these three combine effectively on the field.
Reports of Doueihi switching to fullback may help in this regard, but the problems in the halves remain. Brooks has been unfairly criticised througout his entire career but the criticism was justified this week. He threw several poor passes in Round 3, bringing any promising actions down the short side or along a backline movement to a shuddering halt. It didn’t surprise that he and the Tigers looked better once Brooks started running the ball, but by then it was too late.
If Wests were ever going to drop Brooks it would’ve happened by now. Instead, crow-barring Brandon Wakeham into the side this week looks like the next stop in a seemingly never-ending cycle. Wakeham had some good involvements in a limited minute role last week but hasn’t shown in 26 first-grade games to date that he’s a genuine long-term option in the halves. I’m happy to be proven wrong, but playing Melbourne in Melbourne this weekend doesn’t feel like the time for it.
Rather than hoping for Wakeham to be an instant fix, we can instead look for little improvements in the Tigers in Round 4. Pushing up around Koroisau when he runs is one of them. Setting up for a shot around Isaiah Papali’i and Brent Naden on the left edge is another. There is enough strike in this squad to score points but until they start building towards those strike options instead of throwing them the ball and waiting for something to happen, the wooden spoon contender tag will stick.
Phins Up for Finals Footy?
A superb start to their NRL history sees the Dolphins sitting pretty in equal first place on the premiership ladder with wins over the Roosters, Knights and Raiders. It’s more than most punters could’ve hoped for and it sets up a mouthwatering clash with the Brisbane Broncos this weekend.
The Dolphins have won all three games in similar fashion. They’ve minimised their errors (80.5% completions, ranked 4th), worked up the field effectively (avg. 1,751 running metres, ranked 6th) and remained disciplined in defence (avg. 5 penalties conceded, ranked 5th least) to grind their opponents out of the contest.
In attack, Sean O’Sullivan, Jeremy Marshall-King and Isaiya Katoa have impressed to pass fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow into positive areas on the field. They haven’t had to chance their arm or attempt the risky play to find points, instead keeping things simple in good-ball and waiting for the scoring opportunities to come.
With three wins on the board, fans and neutral punters have begun tipping The Dolphins to sneak into the Top 8 and play finals footy this season. It’s an expected overreaction, but still an overreaction at that. The Roosters were poor in Round 1 while the Knights and Raiders have just one win each this season – and neither of them convincing ones. The Dolphins have impressed to beat what’s in front of them so far in 2023, but out-grinding a team like Penrith, South Sydney, Melbourne or North Queensland later in the year is another thing altogether.
Effort will win The Dolphins a few more games in season 2023. How they fair against a born-again Broncos side in Round 4 might hint at exactly how many more.
The Broncos are Back!
Of the four overreactions I’ve dived into here, this one is the most believable at time of writing. The Brisbane Broncos have played out an impressive three games so far in 2023 to deservedly sit on top of the NRL premiership ladder with three straight wins.
Unlike in recent years, this Broncos squad is extremely well balanced. Pat Carrigan and Payne Haas headline a tough, dynamic forward pack that is dominating the yardage battle and allowing their spine to play over the ad-line at a fatiguing defence. From there, the numerous strike weapons in Brisbane’s backline – Kotoni Staggs, Selwyn Cobbo and Herbie Farnworth – are icing the opportunities constructed by Adam Reynolds, Ezra Mam and Reece Walsh in the spine.
Both Mam and Walsh have been electric to start the season and Reynolds is the cool head that ties it all together. His kicking game in particular last week was superb to trigger multiple scoring actions against the Dragons late in the game. This trio will only get better as the year progresses.
The only question mark for Brisbane this year was at the ruck, but three games in and the Billy Walters / Corey Paix combination is getting the job done. With Reynolds steering the ship from halfback and Mam and Walsh lighting up the highlights reel, Walters and Paix have a simple job in passing their forwards around the ruck and taking their opportunities to run.
It’s been a long time since the Broncos were a premiership force in the NRL, but on current form they are right up there with the heavyweights of the competition. If they can keep their first-choice 17 on the field for most of the season, they’ll be playing deep into September.