AFL Round 1 2023 Tips & Preview

The traditional season opener hasn’t produced many a memorable game since its inception back in 2008, however, the Tigers and Blues fans do turn out in force and pack the ‘G which is always good for the soul.

Carlton heads into season 2023 with high expectations, having missed the finals in the most heartbreaking of circumstances last season and Richmond wants to keep on keeping on – with much hype over the addition of Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto from GWS being added to the stocks at Punt Road.

The Tigers record over Carlton is impressive.

Having won 12 of their last 13 against their old rival, however, the Blues finally broke their season opener hoodoo with a memorable 25-point win in the same game last year, with the Tigers winning the return ‘bout by 13 points in Round 14.

What to make of this match?

The Tigers head into the game as $1.73 favourites at time of publish, with the Blues a value $2.12 head to head bet.

It’s known that games early on in the season are high scoring, and I would expect this one to be a bit of a shootout and with Richmond averaging wins in the 1-39 point range with a good record over Carlton, a simple Same Game Multi backing the over of 169.5 and a Tigers 1-39 win makes for a good value bet to start the season.

Things are just coming up Milhouse down at Kardinia Park.

The too-old, too-slow Cats won the flag without a care in the world and had a glorious off-season basking in premiership glory and loving every minute of it.

Collingwood had all the luck in the world last season, winning games by under a kick every single week and having people like them.

Ten of the Magpies last 12 matches were decided by 15 points or less towards last season. Collingwood won nine games by single digits – and 11 by less than 12 points, with two out their three finals going the other way and decided by less than a kick.

Will we have another thriller on Friday night between these two sides?

When they met in last year’s Qualifying Final, the Cats won a thriller thanks to a late Max Holmes goal by six points in one of the games of season 2022.

While the general footy fan would love the Cats and Pies to go hammer and tongs, what’s in it for the Punter.

You’d expect Geelong to keep on its winning streak of 16 (including the flag) and they just know how to get the job done.

I’m backing the Cats to win a close one.

Kanga! Kanga!  Kanga!

Clarko! Clarko! Clarko!

Will the battle between the teams that finished 18^th and 17^th be a good one for the Punters?

If you ask me, it’s a bloody hard one to tip.

Saturday arvo’s game at Marvel presents a chance for both North and the Eagles to jag an early win for the season as four premiership points is likely to be a rare occurrence for both sides in season 2023.

With this being the master coach Alastair Clarkson’s debut as the top dog at Arden Street, Clarko’s Kangas opens the betting as $1.85 favourites at the time of publishing.

North have won their past two games over the Eagles, including beating West Coast in Round 2 last season by just 15-points when Adam Simpson had to get fill-in players due to covid protocols.

Perhaps it’s the shine of the new coach and wanting to get a win in front of their home fans along with the Eagles horrible Melbourne record that’s got me backing the Clarko’s Kangas in this one.

Take the 1-39 point margin for a bit of value.

Both sides will be feeling the pressure to get some early wins as they meet in the annual Neds own Tom Rockliff Cup.

Port had a shocking 0-5 start to last season which cost them any chance of playing finals early and much discussion has already been made about if Ken Hinkley can take them back to September action or he may face the Freo Heave Ho.

The Lions had a terrific finals campaign, memorable wins over the Tigers and Demons only to go down to eventual premiers Geelong in the prelim.

Many pundits have put the Lions down as a premiership contender this season, so winning an early one on the road will only boost their credentials to take the cup home to Springfield.

Brisbane’s record over Port is a good one.

The Lions have won each of their last five over the Power and have covered the line in six of their last seven meetings.

Let’s keep this one simple, back the Lions at the line.

The re-match of the 2021 Grand Finalists should be another beauty to kick-off season 2023.

Melbourne will be filthy having exited the finals in straight sets and Bevo will just be angry, because well, we all know what happened in the post-game after these two sides met in Round 1 last year.

The Dees won their first 10 games last season and the premiership race looked to be a case of Demons then daylight, before Melksham and May had a little Donnybrook at a team dinner…along with a few other things.

For the Bulldogs, who just scraped into the finals, one of their best wins last season was in Round 19 when number 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan booted five goals in a 10-point win over the Dees at Marvel, including three in the last quarter.

Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs have played in some cracking matches in recent times and a decent rivalry is building.

For this match, you’d expect the Demons to win, so I’ll have a crack at a Same Game Multi and back the Dees to cover with young-gun Jamarra to kick a couple of sausage rolls.

It should be a beauty.

There are big questions for both sides going into season 2023.

Can the Swans recover from their Grand Final belting?

Will this be the year the Suns finally see September action?

None of these will be answered on Saturday night.

The Swans open the betting as $1.60 favorites, with many expecting them to be too strong for the youthful Suns, but the Gold Coast’s record early in the season and over the Swans is impressive.

The Suns have won two of their past three games over the Swans and while Sydney may have won their past seven as a favorite, streaks are meant to be broken and upsets are the norm in the first round of the season.

Stewy Dew’s men are playing at home, have a lot of optimism, and aren’t licking wounds from an embarrassing display on Grand Final day.

Take the Suns $2.35 head-to-head and let the trumpet work overtime at the newly named Heritage Bank Stadium this Saturday night.

Not much of a big, big sound has been made about either side over the off-season, although with a new coach at the Giants in Adam Kingsley and some in South Australia thinking the Crows might be a bolter this season, Sunday’s clash could prove to be4 a fascinating encounter.

When it comes to betting, the favorite has won 14 out of the past 15 when the Crows are involved and the market has the Giants as $1.70 favorites at the time of publish.

The Giants tend to be reliable when playing at home and also have a new coach to impress along with a good recent record over the Crows.

I’ll follow the trends and the stats in this one.

The line/total points of GWS to cover and the under as seven of the last eight involving the Giants have gone under the total match points line.

There’s never a dull moment when these two old rivals meet and another chapter will be written at the MCG this Sunday.

Yet again, the Bombers have a new coach and new direction under Brad Scott while Hawthorn has cleared the decks and is back in rebuild mode under Sam Mitchell.

Many have Hawthorn penciled in for the wooden spoon this season but an early Round 1 win for the Hawks has been the norm in their post-threepeat era having won each of their last five season openers by 1-39 points.

Not to mention the fact, that Essendon has lost seven of their last eight at the MCG.

Expect the trend to continue this Sunday and take the Hawks at the 1-39 margin for a nice bit of value.

Ross the boss is back as boss at St Kilda and his Saints will face Freo, for whom he used to be the boss of as well.

It’s a Ross the Boss fest.

Who will win in Ross the Boss’s return to the top job at St Kilda?

Why Fremantle will of course.

St Kilda’s injury list is bloody long, and the poor old Saints just can’t take a trick.

Freo heads into this game as the clear $1.56 favourite and getting an early season win on the road is vital, especially if they want to make top four for which many a pundit is predicting.

With a fit Nat Fyfe back in the team, and the dual Brownlow medallist expected to spend more time up forward this season, the very good looking man to kick a couple of goals is a must for a Same Game Multi in this clash, for which I have opted for.