If you’re keen or confident enough to load up on your team in Round One this weekend, more power to you.
If you’re like me though, you might prefer to spend your afternoons watching and learning rather than spending your hard-earned based on a gut-feel or some shaky pre-season trial form.
We can be fairly confident in what a few clubs might dish up this week.
The Penrith Panthers have been a model of consistency for a few years now, the Roosters and Storm are always there or thereabouts and the Rabbitohs, Sharks and Cowboys enter 2023 with almost identical squads to the ones that played finals footy four months ago.
It gets a little murkier from there, though, new coaches, personnel changes in key positions and a brand new NRL club are just a few of the variables we’ll get our first look at this weekend, so I’ve given myself some homework as we try to get a better grasp on the ’23 NRL competition.
Dolphin Watch
Without a doubt the most intriguing narrative to follow this year will be the form of The Dolphins NRL franchise.
There will be pressure to perform early and unfortunately for Anthony Milford, he’s the unlucky player our beloved rugby league media will focus on.
One underwhelming showing from Milford against the Gold Coast Titans last week was all it took for Isaiya Katoa to be rated a chance for Round One, and we already have some idea of how he might impact The Dolphins attack should he get the call up.
Katoa set up two very similar tries against the North Queensland Cowboys in Week One of the pre-season trials and it should have Dolphins fans very excited:
Doing some homework for @NedsAus ahead of NRL Round One and getting very excited at the thought of Isaiah Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow linking up with actions like this for the @dolphinsnrl pic.twitter.com/hXm8NK4syl
— Oscar Pannifex (@OscarPannifex) February 26, 2023
His willingness to engage the line and challenge defenders around the ruck is pleasing for such a young half, and the timing of the pass in both actions is more impressive still.
Katoa’s own threat as a ball-runner gets the A- and B-defenders sliding outwards when he takes possession before a killer step (off either foot) quickly burns those defenders back on the inside.
With the ball in two hands and out in front, Katoa then sums things up smartly to engage the marker and pop a neat pass back inside to a teammate in support. Try time.
As good as Katoa’s involvements here are, more important is the presence of multiple Dolphins lurking in his pocket around the ruck.
This is clearly an action Wayne Bennett has trained for over the summer and it’s an action that will only look better with Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow included at fullback, the Hammer is a wonderful support player and is well-equipped to find those spaces back in behind the ruck when Katoa’s bangs off that outside foot.
Whether we see them combine in Round One this weekend or at some stage later in the season, this is an action that will produce points for The Dolphins in 2023.
New Dogs, New Tricks?
We get our first chance to gauge the premiership credentials of a revamped Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs side this Saturday and if their trial form is anything to go by, new recruits Villiame Kikau and Reed Mahoney will be at the forefront of it all.
Kikau will likely link up with Josh Addo-Carr, Paul Alamoti and Matt Burton this year to form one of the more potent left-edge combinations in the comp. We know how damaging a ball-carrier he can be, but Kikau’s development at Penrith over the last few years was a joy to watch with the variety he presents to the defence as a running, passing or kicking threat.
Even when he doesn’t take possession, Kikau’s presence in a backline shift demands attention from the opposition which inevitably leaves space for teammates outside him – the last thing you want to give a flyer like Addo-Carr.
On paper it’s a recipe for success but we need to give this new edge combination time to gel. Kikau’s existing relationship with Burton will help in this regard, but we can’t expect a variety of trick shots and scoring actions from the word go.
Instead, I’m looking for the Bulldogs to nail the basics and use their strike backrower at the right time and in the right places.
An early shift in yardage to get Kikau one-on-one with a smaller defender is a recent and relevant example.
His ability to generate some ruck speed early in the count for Penrith was often the catalyst for a scoring action later in the set, and there’s no reason why Canterbury can’t replicate that in 2023.
When and where Kikau takes possession on Saturday will be what I’m watching for.
Personally though, it’s Mahoney’s inclusion that I’m most excited about for Bulldogs fans.
His attacking output was somewhat limited in a Parramatta side that played predominantly through the hands of Mitch Moses at halfback, and I’m expecting a more involved role for Mahoney at the Bulldogs.
He’s a clever ballplayer with good service and great vision when attacking the line in good ball, as evident in the three try involvements Mahoney registered across Canterbury’s two pre-season trials.
Given a license to scheme from behind the ruck, Mahoney can get the most out of Canterbury’s forward pack close to the line and should easily improve on his seven try assists of 2022, if you like punting on an anytime try scorer, the Bulldogs’ middles could be value this season.
New-look spines for Tigers & Titans
Two sides desperate to climb up the NRL ladder in 2023 will roll out new-look spines for the first time when the Tigers and Titans face-off on Sunday night.
Api Koroisau’s inclusion for Wests has already been tipped as the Buy of the Season and while it might be a little early for calls like that, Koroisau linking up with the likes of Stefano Utoikamanu, Isaiah Papali’i and John Bateman around the ruck is certainly appealing.
The craft and deception Koroisau plays with from dummy-half is second to none and should immediately improve a Tigers offence that scored just 15 tries (4th least) through the middle of the field in 2022.
Koroisau’s ability to hold up the ruck defence before passing out the back to Adam Doueihi and Luke Brooks will also be significant. Expect both halves to play with more time and space this season as Koroisau keeps defenders honest closer to the play-the-ball.
For the Gold Coast Titans, new hooker Sam Verrills arrives without the hype of Koroisau but with ability to fill a similar role at his new club, the Titans are stacked with forward talent and now have a genuine #9 to bring them onto the ball and into the game.
Verrills’ NRL career has been hampered by injury to date but he’s a smart ballplayer who can get the Titans rolling upfield and playing with momentum.
From there, Kieran Foran and Tannah Boyd will be tasked with getting the most out of their strike players in attack – David Fifita, anyone?
On paper, Foran is the perfect half to pair with Fifita on an edge. No one straightens an attack or digs into the line like ‘Foz’, but instead Justin Holbrook has sided with the schoolboy combination of Boyd and Fifita on the Gold Coast’s right edge.
I’m not sold on this just yet and will be keeping an eye on how Boyd links with his backrower on Sunday.
As with the Dolphins and Bulldogs, we can’t expect the best from the Tigers or Titans in Round One. At this stage of the season, intent is more important that execution for clubs looking to challenge for the Eight. Improvement is a process that takes time and we’ll get a better idea of where their points might come from – and where the value might be found – after a first hitout this weekend.
It’s good to be back.
Oscar Pannifex
Rugby League Writers