So here we are.
The last Saturday in September with the two best teams of 2022 playing off in the big one.
Two teams that are no stranger to Grand Finals despite neither winning a premiership in over 10 years.
The Cats go into the game as warm favourites having won 15 straight and off the back of a dominate Preliminary Final wain over Brisbane.
The Swans bring their own winning streak of nine, the latest of which was by the barest of margins against Collingwood on Saturday night.
Our full AFL Grand Final Tips & Preview, including plenty of different markets, can be read below.
My concern for the Brisbane Lions last week was their lack of depth at the bottom end of their playing roster which is why I predicted a blowout result.
I do not have that same concern with the Sydney Swans who have gone from strength to strength as the season has gone on and, like the Cats, do not rely heavily on few, but rather thrive as a whole group.
Pressure is the key in modern football especially in September and both of these sides have proven their capabilities in this department over an extended period of time.
Whoever attacks the football with vigour, is willing to win the ball when it is in dispute and put pressure on the ball carrier to create turnovers will win this game of football.
Geelong average 25.5 points from turnovers during season 2022 and this will no doubt be a contributing factor on Saturday afternoon for both teams.
There are personnel problems for both teams with Sam Reid in doubt for Sydney and Max Holmes for Geelong.
Reid has been instrumental providing a second target for Sydney other than Buddy Franklin and is not easily replaced.
While Max Holmes is clearly a very talented young player, if he doesn’t continue his incredible revival and misses, he can be replaced by the like-for-like Brandon Parfitt or Sam Menegola.
This is sure to be a tight and contested game of football and if one team gets out to a three or four goal lead, I wouldn’t be counting them out completely.
The Cats have been the best team since around half way through this season and look to be peaking just at the right time but.
Although it’s a cliche, the best team on the day will win the football match.
Considering I have tipped the Cats it is a Geelong player that will win the Norm Smith and there has been no better player for the hoops this season than Jezza.
The Norm Smith Medal, just like the Brownlow, is now almost exclusively a midfield award especially considering those that give the award get to peak at the stats.
But Geelong’s midfield brigade is spread throughout a number of players and rotations and therefore there really is no standout in terms of disposals.
one big thing to consider will be who can hit the scoreboard as well as get touches.
Cameron has collected 16+ disposals and kicked at least one goal in 11 games this season and that would almost be enough to get him over the line.
Keeping with this theme I thought Gary Rohan was over the odds at $51 considering he won all 10 coaches votes just two weeks ago against Collingwood.
Tyson Stengle has had a fantastic season and was named in the All Australian team and if he can snag 4+ goals, he is also a chance at $34.
Unlike the Cats, Sydney have a couple of major ball winners and if I were to tip a player in red and white it would be Callum Mills.
Jeremy Cameron ($8.50), Tom Hawkins ($8.50), Buddy Franklin ($9.00), Isaac Heeney ($10), Tom Papley ($11.00) and Tyson Stengle ($11.00) top the market.
A long bomb into Geelong’s forward line to one of the big men is spoiled to the ground where Tyson Stengle crumbs and snaps the first of the game.
From a Sydney perspective, I’m tipping a similar scenario where Tom Papley gets on the end of it.