The NRL Grand Final will be decided by Western Sydney heavyweights the Penrith Panthers and Parramatta Eels in a huge grudge match at Accor Stadium on Sunday evening.
There are so many storylines to follow in the lead-up to the biggest game of the season. Penrith have the opportunity to go back-to-back, in what is an impressive third-consecutive Grand Final appearance. Parramatta meanwhile have the chance to end their 36-year Premiership drought.
Interestingly, the Eels are the only club to have defeated the Panthers twice in 2022, but the Panthers do take bragging rights into the decider following a comfortable victory in Week 1 of the Finals.
I’ve run the rule over both clubs, and you can find my complete 2022 NRL Grand Final Tips
Penrith Panthers
The Panthers have been the league’s benchmark for a few seasons now, and they are justifiable favourites in NRL Grand Final betting ($1.38 at publish).
Having fallen at the final hurdle against the Storm in 2020, Ivan Cleary’s men recorded a tough win over South Sydney in the 2021 decider, and they are arguably an even better side in 2022.
Signs of rust were hardly a thing when Nathan Cleary returned from a six-week absence to guide his side to a comfortable win over the Eels in Week 1 of the Finals, and while they were flat in the first half of last week’s Preliminary Final with Souths, they piled on 32 unanswered points to comfortably win again.
Winger Taylan May has been ruled out of the Grand Final after failing to overcome a hamstring complaint, but the Panthers don’t lose much if anything at all with Charlie Staines filling that role, and they will take a power of beating again.
Parramatta Eels
For a team that boasts so much talent and ability, I thought that the Eels’ inconsistency was at an all-time high in 2022, but it evidently did not matter at all.
They found form at the pointy end of the regular season and finished in the top four, claiming a crucial ‘second chance’, which was required following their Week 1 Finals loss to the Panthers.
They returned to action in Week 2 to deliver the Raiders a thorough defeat, but arguably went to another level in last weekend’s win, on the road and in front of an extremely parochial crowd.
The Eels have named another full-strength team as they chase a rare, but deserved Premiership, but there is no doubt in my mind that their claims lie with Mitchell Moses. If he plays well, they are every chance. If not, they are not.
NRL Grand Final Betting
There are plenty of opportunities to back a winner this week and I’ve dug deep into the Neds NRL Grand Final betting markets in search of the value.
I firmly believe that the Panthers are a class above every other club in the NRL and they are ‘on’, they are virtually unbeatable. Their experience at this time of year vastly outweigh that of the Eels, and think that there is every chance the Parramatta played their final against the Cowboys last week. For those reason, I’ll be backing the Panthers to win by a margin of 13+ for $2.35.
Thirteen of the last sixteen games between the Panthers and the Eels have gone ‘under’ in Total Match Points betting, and given what is on the line this weekend, I am happy to follow that trend again for odds of $1.90.
First and Anytime Try Scorer betting is a favourite of NRL punters season-long, and they can often be extremely lucrative markets. There are many prolific try scorers engaged in this contest, and I actually think that the value lies with backing an Eels player to cross first.
The Eels will need to get on the board early if they are to win the Grand Final, and the Panthers have been a little slow from the blocks a few times recently, including last weekend’s Prelim. With that in mind, there simply isn’t a more prolific try scorer on the Eels’ roster than Maika Sivo, and he is who I am going to look at to score first ($12 at publish). For the Panthers, I am going to back both Dylan Edwards ($2.80) and Viliame Kikau ($3.40) to score tries at any time.
Clive Churchill Medal betting is also a popular target in each Grand Final and unsurprisingly, Nathan Cleary is a $3 market favourite. Cleary has been nothing short of outstanding this season, and if the Panthers win, I believe that it will because of his typical brilliance.
NRL Grand Final Tips
- Back Penrith to Win 13+ @ $2.35
- Back Under 38.5 Total Match Points @ $1.90
- Back Maika Sivo to Score the 1st Try @ $12
- Back Dylan Edwards to Score a Try at Any Time @ $2.80
- Back Viliame Kikau to Score a Try at Any Time @ $3.40
- Back Nathan Cleary to Win the Clive Churchill Medal @ $3.40