To describe Round 23 of the 2023 AFL season EPIC would be an understatement.
Who will jag a top-four spot in the Lions v Dees on Friday night?
Can the Dogs sneak into 8th place on the live ladder?
Will Carlton beat old foe Collingwood in the biggest Blues-Pies blockbuster in over 30-years?
Throw in how Essendon rebounds, bottom teams trying to finish the season on a high and a Showdown for good measure and you’ve got yourself a bloody HUGE weekend of Australian Rules Football.
With this being the final round of the home and away season, it’s our last chance to back 9 winners.
Can we do it? Read on in our AFL Round 23 Tips and Preview
A spot in the top four is on the line as the Brisbane Lions host Melbourne in what should be an epic Friday night encounter at the Gabba.
The Lions were thankful for poor kicking by the Saints and a standout performance from number one draft Pick Cam Rayner last week and Melbourne won a thriller, breaking Blues hearts in the process.
When these two teams last met only a few weeks back at the MCG, Melbourne easily took care of the Lions getting back into winning form to the tune of 63-points.
The Lions effort in that match had many pundits questioning if they can handle the prime time spotlight on the big stage at the MCG – which still lingers in the mind.
However, with this game at the Gabba, backing the Lions at home is one of the more reliable bets in football.
Having only lost two games in the past two years at the ground, Melbourne may fancy themselves for an upset and are good value at the $2.05 on offer at time of publishing – but it’s just too hard not to tip against Brisbane at home.
Expect another close one and I’ll take them at the 1-39 margin.
Could the Giants spoil Freo’s hopes of a top four finish in Canberra this Saturday arvo?
Given the fact they have lost each of their last nine against any team in the top eight, you wouldn’t bet on it.
Infact, don’t bet on it.
That’s what this tips and preview blog is all about at the end of the day.
For Flagmantle to be a thing, the Dockers will want to chalk up the W and be best placed to secure a double chance so taking it in easy in Canberra won’t be an option.
GWS almost pipped the Dogs last week, but they’ve probably checked out by now and waiting for Mad Monday.
Take the Dockers at the line/over double for bit of value.
Your classic end of season dead rubber, but there could be a bit of interest from a Punting perspective.
Historically, bottom placed sides are known for getting up in the last round of the season and if North win this and West Coast lose (which they will), they avoid the wooden spoon.
Even if the Kangaroos miss out on landing Clarko, the return of favourite son Ben Cunnington from his health battles and wanting to give stand-in coach Leigh Adams a win would be plenty of incentive to finish on a high.
The Gold Coast Suns have had a terrific year and there’s plenty to be excited about for season 2023, but I just have a feeling that North might chalk up a rare win here.
The $3.15 on offer is worth a shot.
The top of the ladder, up and about Cats have been blessed with a pre-finals training session against the West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium.
Given the Eagles have lost their past eight games at the Cattery by 40+ points every time (including one against the Swans), this is set to be a flogging.
While the news of Jeremy Cameron’s hammy on the eve of the finals is unfortunate, it clears the way to ensure that his partner in crime Tom Hawkins to kick a bag.
With the mixture of Cameron out, GHMBA Stadium and playing West Coast – the Tomahawk for 5+ goals is something any Punter would want a piece of.
It keeps this rather nothing game interesting.
Quiet week at Essendon?
Much happen?
Clarko or no Clarko, the Bombers were pathetic last week against Port, and playing a revved up Richmond on the eve of the finals could make for another grim night.
It could be another case of sack the coach, beat the Tigers the next week but given that at the time we’ve published this Ben Rutten still has his job (or does he), how any team can get up from that is beyond me.
The Tigers have secured their place in the 2022 finals series and with Tom Lynch fresh from 8 goals after flogging the Hawks by 62 points last week, look set to put salt into the Essendon wounds.
Richmond has won each of their last 12 games against the Bombers and is very much on track to make it 13.
The Tigers for a 10+ goal win (60+ points) is terrific value.
No matter where the Power or Crows are placed, there’s never a dull moment and always something on the line when it comes to the Showdown and the city of churches will be rocking this Saturday night.
This could be a real spiteful edition of the Showdown as well, with both the Power and Crows missing out on the finals.
The prospect of finishing the season on a high with a win in the local derby is a BIG DEAL in South Australia.
When the two sides met back in Round 3, Jordan Dawson kicked an epic goal after the siren to win the game for the Crows by four points, a moment that will go down in Showdown folklore.
Port Adelaide will be desperate to get one back and not allow the Crows a clean sweep in 2022.
Adelaide have won their past three games and will take plenty of confidence heading into Saturday night.
It’s just a shame we can’t bet on if Port will wear the prison bar jumper out of pure spite for Collingwood…go on, do it.
It should be a beauty and hopefully another Showdown thriller is on the cards.
All the Western Bulldogs need to do on Sunday is beat Hawthorn and barrack hard for Collingwood.
The Dogs just got the job done against GWS in a rather ordinary game last week and currently sit 9th on the ladder.Should they beat the Hawks, they’ll be 8th on the live ladder leaving Carlton fans very, very nervous.
Hawthorn was thrashed by Richmond last week, with Tom Lynch booting eight and it’s apparent that Sam Mitchell is playing the kids up until the end of the season, which given where they are at is the smart thing to do.
Even with the game in Launceston for what is a bit of a fortress for the Hawks, they have lost seven of their last eight as an underdog.
With too much to play for, and a nervous afternoon ahead once the siren goes, the Western Bulldogs simply have to win this
.They should be able to cover the line.
It’s the biggest Blues v Pies game since the 1988 Qualifying Final.
90,000+ fans are set to pack out the MCG.
If Carlton wins*, they play finals for the first time since 1988.
(Should the Hawks beat the Dogs, the Blues will be in the finals)
If Collingwood wins, they finish top four.
I won’t go into what happened last week for the Blues, and the Pies magical run came to a halt in Sydney against the rampaging Swans.
While some injury concerns face Collingwood – notably Jack Ginnivan and Jordan De Goey, the Magpies can still pull off something, it’s been the case all season – including when these two sides met in Round 11 with the Pies getting up by four points.
A real 50/50 with much at stake, but Collingwood winning a close one would add a lot of drama…and heartbreak.
Pies 1-39, Carlton fans better hope the Hawks cause an upset.
The Swans will win this and win it easily and it’s a disappointing finish for the Saints who ruled themselves out of finals contention last week.
However, much scrutiny has been on young key forward Max King after a 0.5 goal-kicking performance last Friday night against Brisbane.
While the offer from Matthew Lloyd to help the big fella out at St Kilda training is much appreciated, don’t be surprised if he kicks the jitters away and manages a few through the big sticks.
King has averaged 2.2 goals this season and an effort of 3+ with all his Saints teammates getting around him is a very real prospect.
Let’s take him for 3+ to keep the final game of the home and away season interesting.