AFL Round 21 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 21 Tips & Preview

Blockbuster Video may no longer be a thing, but Blockbuster rounds of footy is still very much booming.

With finals just around the corner, Round 21 of the AFL season is set to make or break the seasons of quite a few games.

Top 4 spots are up for grabs, top 8 spots are up for grabs, champions are retiring and other clubs have nothing but pride to play for even if they have “checked out”

Can we make a nice tidy profit on the footy this weekend?

Read on in our AFL Round 21 tips and preview below

MELBOURNE VS COLLINGWOOD
Melbourne to win by 1-39 @ $2.10

Another week, another Collingwood win by under two kicks with a controversial call on a Jack Ginnivan free kick for good measure.

The Magpies have won 10 in a row, and sit third on the ladder but surely they are due for a loss?

Friday nights clash against the Demons should be a beauty.

Melbourne looked back to their dominant best against Freo last week, and after the odd blip here and there in the middle part of the season look set to finish strong in a quest for back-to-back premierships.

When these two last met on the Queens’ birthday, Collingwood produced a memorable 26-point win, coming back from 20 points down in the third quarter kicking seven of the last eight goals to win their fourth straight as part of this magical winning streak.

It’s tempting to take Collingwood 1-39, and I wouldn’t rule out a thriller, however, if one team is to pip the Pies winning streak – it’s going to be the Demons.

HAWTHORN VS GOLD COAST SUNS
SGM - Haw H2H/Chol 3+ Goals/Mitchell 30+ Disp @ $9.54

An off-broadway dead rubber between the Hawks and Gold Coast Suns on a Saturday arvo is hardly going to capture the imagination of the general sporting public, but this looms as a fascinating contest.

Let’s spice this one up with a same game multi.

A couple of handy stats come into play – the home team has won 10 of the Suns’ past 11 games – Hawthorn is incredibly reliable when playing at their Launceston fortress so let’s take them at the $1.80 on offer.

Former Tiger Maboir Chol has been a revelation at the Suns this year, averaging 2.3 goals per game and booted five in Gold Coast’s thrilling win over the Eagles – I’ve got him down for three.

Expect another case of leather poisoning from Tom Mitchell, as per normal, 30+ disposals and I reckon we’ll be pretty happy come the final siren in this clash.

GWS GIANTS VS ESSENDON
Either team to win by 15.5 points @ $2.60

We’ve all seen this movie before where Essendon starts the season full of hope, has a shocking start to the year, can’t make the finals and then finish it off with a few wins.

Former Bomber turned GWS fill-in coach Mark McVeigh didn’t mince his words last week after the Giants got belted in the Sydney derby to the tune of 73-points last week accusing some of his players of “checking out” for the season, he’s not wrong.

You would expect the Giants to come out with a bit more grunt this week and this game should be close.

The past 4 games between the Giants and Dons have been decided by 15.5 points or less, and this game is a real toss of the coin.

Take the old either by 15.5 or less in the tri-bet option for a bit of value.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS FREMANTLE
First Goal Kicker: Jamara Ugle-Hagan (WB) @ $12

In arguably the game of the round, top four hopes are on the line for the Dockers and top eight is still in play for the Bulldogs.

This Saturday twilight clash under the roof at Marvel should be a beauty.

While “Flagmantle” has been all the rage during season 2022, recent performances have made people question its credibility.

The Dockers are the kind of team that can beat anyone on their day, but playing the Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium is one of the hardest tasks in footy, with Bevo’s men winning their last six at home.

Number 1 draft pick Jamara Ugle-Hagan has arrived, quickly emerging as one of the most exciting players in the AFL.

Ugle-Hagan is a must for those looking to have a same game multi on this clash, being first goal scorer and kicking 2+ goals in two of the Dogs last three matches.

I’m excited for this clash, but I’m more excited to see what Ugle-Hagan can produce in a game like this.

I’ve got him down for the first goal.

GEELONG VS ST KILDA
Line/Total Points - Geelong -33.5/Over 156.5 @ $3.20

The Cats dream run to the finals continues as they face St Kilda – who still happens to be in the top eight despite all the talk around other clubs vying for that spot this week.

If St Kilda can beat a rampant Geelong at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday night – a ground they have not won at since 1999, then the Saints can book their spot in September.

But we all know that’s not going to happen.

Geelong has won their past 10 matches and covered the line six weeks running.

Even when challenged, the Cats find a way.

Chris Scott and his men will still have something to prove come finals time, but when it comes to home and away along with playing at home, expect the Cats to bank another four premiership points.

The line/total points double at $3.20 is excellent value.

PORT ADELAIDE VS RICHMOND
Richmond @ $2.35

Fresh from arguably their best win since the 2020 Grand Final over the Lions last week, Richmond heads to Adelaide Oval to face Port.

The Tigers need to still bank the wins if they are to play finals and Port Adelaide would love nothing more than to make life really difficult for Richmond.

Our market as the Power $1.60 favourites, which is fair given Port’s record in recent weeks and the Tigers coming off a month of finding ways to lose in unique and mysterious ways.

One thing about Richmond, bar one or two games this season, they’ve always been a fighting chance to win the game.

The return of Tom Lynch up forward along with rising star nominee Noah Cumberland is a real advantage to the Tigers.

Don’t rule out another nail-biter, but Richmond has had plenty of real-life experience playing in them.

The $2.35 on offer for Richmond as an underdog is too good to pass.

NORTH MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY
Sydney to win by 59+ @ $2.30

The Swans will show no mercy on Sunday against North Melbourne at Marvel.

It’s a classic case of Sydney flying under the radar, despite playing great footy and sitting fourth on the ladder.

With a chance to give their percentage a bit of a boost, John Longmire’s men can make the most of playing the Kangaroos who are just waiting for the season to end, hire Clarko as coach ($1.33 according to our market) and get the draft picks.

These two sides did meet back in Round 4 this season, in arguably one of the Kangaroos best performances this year when the Swans just beat them by 11-points at the SCG, but it’s unlikely we’ll see something similar this weekend.

Swans by plenty.

BRISBANE LIONS VS CARLTON
Brisbane Lions (-14.5) @ $2

Sunday’s Lions v Blues clash at the Gabba is going to be HUGE.

Both the Lions and Blues blew golden opportunities to cement themselves heading into the finals last week and now the pressure will really be on in a blockbuster clash for the ages.

All the talk around Brisbane this week is a 50 point turnaround resulting in a 7-point defeat against the Tigers and Carlton has been labelled arrogant after a surprise loss to the Crows in Adelaide.

The Blues are making it back-to-back interstate trips and facing the Lions at the Gabba is one of the most daunting tasks in football with Brisbane having won 17 of their last 19 at home.

Carlton’s draw in the last three weeks include Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood and if they can’t beat one of those sides they may even drop out of the final eight.

Either side could win this game, but are you really prepared to back against the Lions at the Gabba?

Take Brisbane at the line, they’ll bounce back in this one.

WEST COAST VS ADELAIDE
SGM: West Coast H2H/Josh Kennedy 5+ goals @ $6.78

In what will be Eagles champion Josh Kennedy’s last game, there’s no doubting West Coast will want to finish on a high for the big man this Sunday arvo at Optus Stadium.

Kennedy will leave the Eagles after 15 seasons, a 2018 premiership medal and the greatest Eagles goal kicker of all-time.

The argument about the Chris Judd – Josh Kennedy exchange is one of the great pub chats in footy- but everyone knows that Kennedy came out best.

With no more fuel in the tank (his words in the press conference), the Eagles will do everything they can to kick it to Josh.

Currently on 715 career goals, there’s no reason he can’t finish on 720+.

I’ll take him for 5+ in his final game and the Eagles to win.