Another memorable State of Origin series will be decided at Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday, July 13th.
Queensland drew first blood in Sydney, but New South Wales responded in the most dominant way imaginable, and they take all of the confidence and momentum into Game 3.
The Maroons have proven to be extremely difficult to beat at home, particularly in deciders, but they opened $2.25 outsiders in State of Origin betting ahead of the decider, with the Blues popular $1.65 favourites.
Since Cameron Munster and Murray Taulagi were unfortunately ruled out of the match with COVID, however, the Maroons have drifted further to $3.20, while the Blues are into $1.35.
Once again, I’ve run the rule over both teams and the Neds betting markets, and you can find my complete 2022 State of Origin Game 3 Tips below.
Queensland
Billy Slater’s men were tough and worthy winners of Game 1, but they were completely at sea, particularly in the second half in Game 2, and all the pressure is now lumped back on their shoulders as they attempt to win State of Origin 2022 in front of their parochial home crowd.
While the ‘pick and stick’ mentality has been synonymous with Queensland for many years now, changes should be made to a side that leaked 44 points the game prior, but Slater initially elected to make just one. With Felise Kaufusi away on compassionate grounds, Tom Gilbert has been named to make is Origin debut.
With Munster and Taulagi ruled out, Tom Dearden has been named to make his debut at five-eighth, while Corey Oates comes back into the side on the wing. There remains a chance that Dearden will start on the bench, Ben Hunt will move to five-eighth and Harry Grant will start at hooker, but at this stage, anything is possible.
Munster’s omission also means that captain Daly Cherry-Evans will need to lead from the front, and be nothing short of outstanding at halfback. The holes that were evident in Queensland’s Game 2 central defence are sure to have been a priority for Slater and his coaching staff this camp.
Queensland Maroons Origin 3:
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- Kalyn Ponga
- Selwyn Cobbo
- Valentine Holmes
- Dane Gagai
- Corey Oates
- Tom Dearden
- Daly Cherry-Evans ©
- Lindsay Collins
- Ben Hunt
- Josh Papalii
- Kurt Capewell
- Jeremiah Nanai
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
- Harry Grant
- Jai Arrow
- Patrick Carrigan
- Tom Gilbert
New South Wales
They started clear favourites in Game 1, made too many mistakes and lost, and with their back against the wall, the Blues probably couldn’t have been more impressive in Game 2.
Nathan Cleary starred and ultimately claimed Man of the Match honours, but there were a lot of promising solo efforts, and even in Brisbane, their Game 2 dominance means that New South Wales are fitting $1.65 favourites.
Brad Fittler, perhaps in a big shock to many, has elected to maintain almost the same side Blues side for Game 3, but with Payne Haas and his subsequent replacement Jordan McLean both ruled out, Jacob Saifiti has been named to make his debut from the bench.
It has already been proven this season that New South Wales cannot afford complacency, and that is surely what has been drilled into them by Brad Fittler and his coaching staff in the lead-up to Game 3. Nothing short of a repeat of their Game 2 performance will be required to win in Brisbane.
New South Wales Blues Origin 3:
- James Tedesco ©
- Brian To’o
- Matt Burton
- Stephen Crichton
- Daniel Tupou
- Jarome Luai
- Nathan Cleary
- Junior Paulo
- Apisai Koroisau
- Jake Trbojevic
- Cameron Murray
- Liam Martin
- Isaah Yeo
- Damien Cook
- Angus Chricton
- Jacob Saifiti
- Siosifa Talakai
State of Origin Betting
Despite having to do it away from home and in front of one of the most one-sided crowds in Australian sport, New South Wales will start very firm favourites in State of Origin 3 betting.
Early Payout is available again in State of Origin Game 3 at Neds – simply back either state to win head-to-head and if your selection leads by 6 points or more at half time, you’ll be paid out early.
First Try Scorer Betting has once again been a popular target for Origin punters and there’s excellent value to be found here at Neds again.
Jack Wighton crossed for the first try in Game 1 at a healthy $16, but that quote was outdone by Felise Kaufusi at $31 in Game 2! There’s been plenty of interest for the likes of Daniel Tupou ($10) for New South Wales in Game 3, while Selwyn Cobbo ($11) has again been the pick of the Queenslanders.
Cameron Munster was named Man of the Match in Game 1 at odds of $10 at Neds, while Nathan Cleary was a popular target on the top line of betting in Game 2 at $6 and duly saluted. The latter has been a popular target again ahead of Game 3, while there has also been interest for the likes of Kalyn Ponga in the Queensland ranks.
State of Origin Tips
As has been the case for Games 1 & 2 this season, I am going to provide a set of State of Origin Tips for New South Wales fans, and a set of tips for Queensland fans in Game 3! It’s one of the most patriotic sporting events on the Australian calendar, and we’ve managed to find plenty of State of Origin winners employing this approach.
Queensland Tips
- Back Queensland to Win @ $3.20
- Back Selwyn Cobbo to score the 1st Try @ $11
- Back Kalyn Ponga to be named Man of the Match @ $13
New South Wales Tips
- Back New South Wales to Cover the Line (-8.5) @ $2
- Back Brian To’o to score the 1st Try @ $10
- Back James Tedesco to be named Man of the Match @ $6