Just like you, dear reader, we are bang-average punters.
And something that usually makes bang-average punters come unstuck is a bottomless track.
After building an ark to navigate the treacherous water-logged tracks of the Sydney Autumn, we thought the Winter Carnival would mean blue skies and dry decks.
Mother Nature, as it turns out, has other plans.
So, as you digest the form each week in preparation for MORE rain affected surfaces over the Winter Carnival, we thought we’d share some common wet track traps we’ve fallen into. So many times.
There’s wet form, and then there’s wet form
You’re enjoying your Saturday morning cuppa and studying the form.
You see a horse has had 3 starts on heavy decks for a couple of wins and a placing and it’s been pumped in during the week.
How good! Time to jump on.
Hold up a minute.
Who did it race against on those heavy decks? When was it?
Was it a maiden in bloody whoop-whoop against donkeys and zebras and now it’s against open company in a Group race? Different gravy.
Don’t be lazy, dig a little deeper!
Rail out, on pace
So, you’ve got your best bet of the day lined up. their form is impeccable and should absolutely spank these things.
After all, they love a wet deck.
Your dear old mother has even got some hard earned on it, that’s how confident you are.
Oh no, it’s a backmarker.
The rail is out 7 metres the entire trip.
There’s no early speed in this race.
Your thing starts charging home over the last furlong, but deep down, you know that it’s not going to make it.
Wet deck plus rail out equals on pace things win most of the time.
Track bias is real and its pure evil.
Trust us, it rears its ugly head even more on a rainy day.
Keep an eye out for those horses that have had the first few runs of their prep on a dry deck and are now going to be racing on a heavy.
If they’re coming up against horses who’ve been labouring through the mud for the last month, I tell ya what they’re going to have a fresher set of legs!
This was evident plenty of times throughout the Autumn and delivered some winners at juicy odds.
Not that we backed any of them, obviously.
Hopefully you’ve taken some wisdom from our countless mistakes punting on wet tracks. If not, well, we don’t blame ya.
One last thing. If you see any horses with a snorkel a pair of flippers on we suggest you jump on!