AFL Round 12 Tips & Preview

The Dogs are back playing some really good football after an ordinary start to the season.

They have now won four out of their last five but it’s not the victories that have been most impressive, rather the way they are playing.

In those four wins they have averaged 121.6 points and 57.9 inside 50s per game, an improvement on their numbers in other games.

The Cats have comfortably defeated both South Australian teams in the last two weeks and sit sixth with seven wins and four losses.

Three of their four losses have come against sides currently inside the top eight and they have a very strong percentage of 128.4.

Six of the last seven matches between the Western Bulldogs and Geelong have gone OVER the total match points line.

After starting the season with wins over Port, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, the Crows have now lost their last five games by an average margin of 41.2 points.

But that’s still an improvement on how things are going at West Coast.

The Eagles lost their seventh consecutive game by over 50 points when they were belted by the Dogs at home by 101 points on Saturday.

That made it 14 defeats from their last 15 games and seven games in a row where they have failed to cover the line.

West Coast are simply not competitive at the contest and are bleeding scoring opportunities from stoppages, so the Crows should be able to outscore them by just over a goal a quarter to cover the line.

Gold Coast couldn’t have been much more impressive when they travelled to Darwin and beat Hawthorn by 67 points on Saturday night.

That was their third win in four weeks including victories over Sydney and Fremantle and they sit just one win outside of the top eight.

North Melbourne have now lost their last nine straight and their last seven by 40+.

Their young team was competitive at times against both Melbourne and St Kilda in the past two weeks but they simply can not play four quarters of football at this stage of their rebuild.

They also struggle to score points so I think the unders is the play in this one.

If it bleeds, you can kill it.

The Dees lost their first game of 2022 in Round 11, breathing new life into the large group of teams that were chasing them

This includes the Swans who overcame a big deficit against Richmond on Friday night to hold on by six points.

Sydney now sits in seventh with a record of seven wins and four losses.

It may have been the loss that Melbourne needed but Steven May being subbed out of the game is some cause for concern.

The Dees midfield struggled at stoppages which is something that they have been some dominant at but they still managed 51 inside 50s.

They went at just 43.1% disposal efficiency once the ball was inside their forward 50.

There is no massive need for concern for the Dees despite and this current adversity is something they can certainly overcome.

Sydney has covered the line in seven of its last eight matches against Melbourne.

This includes beating Melbourne twice in their last three encounters.

Hawthorn are the most inconsistent football team in the AFL.

Wins over Geelong and Brisbane have been the highs, losses against Essendon and Gold Coast the lows.

Collingwood have had plenty of highs and lows as well this season.

They are the only team to lose to West Coast, something that is hard to fathom with the Eagles current form.

Despite this, the Pies have wins over Fremantle, St Kilda and now Carlton.

The Hawks struggle to put together four quarters of football but when they get a roll on, they can cut teams up through the middle of the ground and score quickly.

This is a tough game to tip but the value lies if the Hawks can kick straight as they have all year and steam roll the Pies late in the game.

Fremantle bounced back from back to back losses to record the biggest scalp in football, beating the defending premiers Melbourne by 38 points on Saturday night.

Even more impressively, they beat them at their own game, dominating the contest.

James Aish, Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Sarong all had three centre clearances each and the Dockers had 12 more contested possessions throughout the game.

The Lions were challenged by GWS at home on Saturday afternoon but they found a way to grind out a win and currently sit second on the AFL Ladder.

Their percentage of 139.7% is topped only by Melbourne and they have a real opportunity to almost lock in a top 4 spot with this eight point game against the Dockers.

Despite possibly the most impressive win of the season by any team, It’s easy to forget that Freo were well beaten by both the Suns and Pies in consecutive weeks.

The away team has covered the line in eight of the last nine matches between Fremantle and Brisbane and that is the way I’ll be playing this one.