AFL Round 7 Tips & Preview

Round 7 kicks off with the 12th placed Richmond traveling west to take on the 17th placed West Coast.

Both teams come into this fixture having lost their last two and both have played some ordinary football so far this season.

Richmond continues to have a problem with their skills which is not something that we are not used to with a team that dominated for so long.

They had 79 turnovers in their loss the Melbourne and they lead the competition for clangers this year at 69.8 per game.

The Tigers are also last for stoppage clearances with 16.3 a game, well below the next club on the list which is Essendon with 20.7.

On the plus side, they run into a West Coast side that is injury plagued and only barely going.

They were smashed from pillar to post last week against the Power to the tune of 84 points.

The Eagles have turned the football over more times than any other team in the competition and ranked last in contested possessions, inside 50s and shots on goal.

Keep a close eye on who comes in for West Coast but I couldn’t possibly tip them with the way they are playing right now.

Geelong bounced back from a disappointing loss to Hawthorn to beat North by 10 goals last week and their forward line is gelling well six rounds into the season.

Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron sit one and two on the goalkicking table with the latter nailing seven goals last week.

It’s no surprise that they rank first for shots on goal but they are second for inside 50s and total points.

They also make the most of their opportunities once their forwards are given the chance.

They rank second for scores per entry into their forward 50.

Fremantle have been a revelation in season 2022 and it is mainly through doing the opposite of what Geelong do!

The Dockers have been methodical when moving the football out of their defensive 50 with the fifth least amount of turnovers in this part of the ground.

They have also conceded the least amount of points from turnovers from their defensive half.

This is a big step up in competition for Fremantle and it may just come too quick for them but we were learn a lot about them either way.

Adelaide find themselves just outside the top eight with an even three wins and three losses through six rounds.

They have now won three of their last four after a stirring win against last year’s grand finalists the Western Bulldogs.

It’s no surprise to those inside the football club and in fact Crows fans, because the focus has been on winning contested footbal and that is something they have done well this season.

They rank third in the competition for contested possessions and if they continue this trend, they will continue being competitive.

GWS are all sorts at the moment, with just the one win in 2022 and that came against the struggling Gold Coast Suns.

The rhetoric is that they simply have too much talent to continue to play badly but that storyline is not holding up.

GWS have lost their last five straight interstate matches.

They may produce a spike performance every now and then but I simply can’t back them at the moment especially against a hungry, contested football team playing in front of their home fans.

The defending premiers well and truly took the premiership/dynasty torch from Richmond last round when winning by 22 points on Anzac Day eve.

It could have been a much, much bigger win and the scoreline does not do their dominance justice.

They had 17 more scoring shots, 65 more disposals, 22 more inside 50s and seven more marks inside 50 as they claimed their 13th win in a row.

Hawthorn bolted out of the blocks against the Swans and were right in the contest until late in the game and the 41 point margin does not do them any justice either.

They were really lacking options when going forward and missed Mitch Lewis who has 15 goals to his name in season 2022 this season.

My rule throughout this season is to continue to back Melbourne at the line but this may be a danger game for the Dees.

Hawthorn has covered the line in seven of their last nine games when they have been the underdog and despite their dominance this season, Melbourne has won five of their last six by a margin of 1-39.

The market has overreacted to Carlton’s loss to Fremantle last week here.

It was a litmus test that Carlton failed and there were plenty of worrying signs in a very disappointing loss.

But it is important not to forget the body of work that they have produced this season so far.

And the fact they take on a dismal North Melbourne who are continually struggling to stay in touch with their opponents each week,

The line has been set at four goals, that’s one a quarter.

Carlton cover that easily.

St Kilda find themselves just outside the top four with a record of five wins and one loss through six rounds.

Their 10 point win over Fremantle remains their only win against a team inside the current top eight and they are coming off a 17 point win over GWS last weekend.

The Saints are fourth in contested possessions, fifth in contested marks and fourth for shots on goals.

There is no hiding for Port Adelaide who sit 14th.

A string of four losses in a row was broken when they thumped West Coast at home last weekend returning to a semblance of their best football.

A whopping 31 more entries inside their forward 50, 11 more centre clearances and 34 more contested possessions was the catalyst for the resounding win and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have found their mojo back.

Cazalys Stadium in Cairns will play host to this clash and the value lies with the Power in my opinion.

The Pies are riding a high after beating rivals Essendon on Anzac Day, a win that they were made to earn.

Collingwood area tough team to get a hold on but they have three wins and three losses and currently sit in eighth spot.

The Gold Coast are 2-4 and continue to frustrate punters and fans alike.

The Suns had an impressive win against Carlton at home in round four but have followed that with two losses to the Saints and Lions.

Despite having just two less shots on goal than their big brother, they went down by 52 points with wayward kicking at goal not helping their cause.

Collingwood have some injury concerns to their big men with Nathan Krueger and Brodie Grundy injured for some time.

The last four games Collingwood has played in have been decided by a margin of 15.5 or less and they have failed to cover the line in 11 of its last 13 matches as a favourite.

We have to wait until Sunday afternoon for the match of the round at the SCG and it looks like a cracker between two in form sides.

The Lions beat up on their little brother last week when they beat the Suns by 52 points and the Swans showed plenty of grit and determination to roll Hawthorn in the last quarter to win by 41.

The Lions rank second for contested possessions behind Melbourne which has been their platform for success throughout the season and to top it all off, they have so many scoring options!

Joe Daniher and Zac Bailey currently sit inside the top 5 in the Coleman Medal race and the likes of Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy and Daniel McStay are dangerous around goal as well, not to mention the looming return of Eric Hipwood from injury!

The Swans have won nine of their last 10 games against the Lions at the SCG and I give them the slight advantage in this one.