AFL Round 6 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 6 Tips & Preview

The defending premiers Melbourne sit atop the AFL ladder, undefeated through five rounds of football with Fremantle, Brisbane and St Kilda joining them inside the top four.

Round 6 kicks off on Friday night in Canberra with the GWS looking to get their season back on track against the Saints.

There is plenty of quality football taking place over the weekend including the Anzac Day match between Collingwood and Essendon on Monday.

Our AFL Round 6 Tips & Preview can be found below.

GWS Giants vs St Kilda Saints
St Kilda @ $1.70

The Giants are wallowing in 14th spot heading into Round 6 with just a solitary win in season 2022 so far.

They were belted by Melbourne last weekend to the tune of 67 points and there are plenty of worrying signs for Leon Cameron none more so than their ability to score!

The Giants have managed just 50 goals so far this season (16th) and despite having almost as many inside 50s as Melbourne, they went at just 32.1% efficiency when they got the ball in there.

Not unlike Carlton, there are many pundits and punters that have been waiting for St Kilda to stumble but they have been playing consistently good football throughout the season thus far.

St Kilda were challenged by the Gold Coast Suns all throughout the contest in Round 5 but showed a heap of grit and determination, running out 26 point winners.

The Saints are flying right at the minute and have been really well supported in early betting but I still believe the price is a backable one.

They have also covered the line line in seven of their last eight games.

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows
SGM Dogs 40+ & Bailey Smith 110+ Fantasy Points @ $5.30

The Western Bulldogs kicking woes were put on hold in round 5 when they kicked 21.13 and beat the Roos by 68 points.

The Dogs have had no problem giving themselves opportunities to score so it was a matter of time before the flood gates opened especially against those sides that struggle to stop their movement through the middle of the ground.

They rank 6th in the competition for Shots On Goal and 7th for Inside 50s.

The Crows on the other hand rank last for inside 50s and 16th for Shots On Goal.

Bailey Smith has had a white hot start to the 2022 season and is averaging 35.8 disposals a game as well as 135 fantasy points.

The Dogs get this done quite easily in my opinion.

Port Adelaide vs West Coast
Port Adelaide by 15+ @ $1.75

For three quarters of the game against Carlton, Port Adelaide looked very ordinary and another blow out loss looked on the cards.

But the Power rallied in the last to get within three points of Carlton.

Just like the Western Bulldogs, Port has not struggled to give themselves scoring opportunities.

They rank 4th for both Shots on Goal and Inside 50s in the competition so it is a matter of time before they start being rewarded in my opinion.

West Coast may be the most inconsistent team in the AFL and many are struggling to get a firm hold of where they sit in the grand scheme of things.

They suffered the fourth loss of the season when going down to the Swans by 63 points last weekend.

West Coast has won six of its last seven matches as an underdog against Port Adelaide but I think they will have their work cut out for them in a game that is incredibly important for Port Adelaide and their hopes of playing finals football.

Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues
Carlton @ $2.25

Carlton finds themselves inside the top six through five rounds of football and have just a single loss on their resume.

That loss came against the Gold Coast Suns two weeks ago and they just fell in against a fast finishing Port Adelaide last weekend.

Their stoppage work has been outstanding so far this season and that is in no small part to the inclusion of ex Swan George Hewitt who ranked second in the competition for Total Clearances and second in effective disposals.

Fremantle also have just one loss to their name through five rounds and find themselves second on the AFL Ladder.

You could argue that the Dockers have had a favourable draw, as the only team they have played that is currently inside the top eight is St Kilda, a team they lost to by 10 points in round two.

Fremantle entered season 2022 with the 5th youngest list in the competition even with the oldest player in the league in David Mundy (who turns 37 in July), which suggests that they are performing well above where many thought they may have been.

This is a real litmus test for a young Freo side but I feel Carlton are just a little more further along in their development as a genuine finals contender.

Carlton have also won their last four straight games against the Dockers.

North Melbourne vs Geelong
SGM Geelong 40+ & Hawkins 3+ Goals @ $3.66

Despite just the one win so far this season, there has been plenty to like about North Melbourne.

Nick Larkey has 14 goals to his name and sits equal fifth in the race for the Coleman and this is even more impressive when you consider North Melbourne has had the third least amount of inside 50s and second least amount of shots on goal than any team in the competition.

They have moved the ball well when transitioning out of defence with Aaron Hall (4th in the comp) and Luke McDonald (8th) leading the way with rebound 50s.

It was a disappointing loss to Geelong on Easter Monday but full credit has to go to a Hawthorn team that was up for the challenge.

It shouldn’t be panic stations down the highway as Geelong lead the league in Centre Clearances and Shots On Goal and are second in Goal Assists.

Chris Scott’s men also turn the football over less times than any team in the competition and I think they will dominate the time in possession of the football in this match up and ultimately this will end in a big score for a hungry Geelong team looking to forget last week’s loss.

Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Lions & Over 165.5 Points @ $2.50

The Brisbane Lions have beaten up on their younger brother in recent times and enter this game in pretty good shape sitting third on the AFL Ladder.

The Gold Coast have shown glimpses of good football so far but they have a 2-3 record heading into a crucial Q-Clash at their home stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Here are some key facts about this matchup:

The Brisbane Lions have won their last six straight games against the Suns and their last five in a row by a margin of 40+ points.

The Brisbane Lions have covered the line in nine of their last 11 games against the Suns.

The last five games between these two teams have gone over the total points line.

Team up the Lions to win with the over for the play in this game.

Richmond Tigers vs Melbourne Demons
Melbourne and Over 168.5 Total Points @ $2.25

Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss

This seems to be the trend for the Richmond Football Club in recent times.

There are glimpses that the Tiges are still capable of playing some devastating football but the reality is that it is becoming increasingly inconsistent.

Damian Hardwick will be concerned with a few key stats; Richmond rank last in Stoppage Clearances and first in Clangers.

The live by the sword, die by the sword gameplan of moving the football fast and cutting opposing teams up through the middle of the game works when your disposals efficiency is at a high level.

If you turn the football over constantly, it will hurt you the other way, especially against a side like Melbourne.

The Dees are now riding a 12 game winning streak and I say it every week, if you back Melbourne to cover all year, you’ll end up in front.

Nine of Melbourne’s last 10 matches have gone OVER the total match points line.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Sydney Swans
Either team to win by less than 24.5 points @ $1.82

The Hawks find themselves inside the top eight after a gutsy win over their long time rivals Geelong on Easter Monday.

Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell will be happy with that win but ecstatic that they beat the Cats in some key components of the game.

Despite losing their number ruck during the game they managed to break even in total clearances (centre and stoppages) which is no easy feat against the Cats who are contested ball winners.

James Sicily was enormous in defence taking 15 marks and gathering 26 touches.

The Swans sit 5th through five rounds and were just too good for a depleted West Coast side last weekend.

The McCartin brothers have been rock solid in defence and sit 4th (Paddy) and 7th (Tom) in the competition for intercept marks.

The gap between Hawthorn’s best and worst can be large at times but they pose a big threat down in Tasmania if they bring the same contested football as they did last week.

Seven of the last nine matches between Hawthorn and Sydney have been decided by a margin of 15 points or less.

Essendon Bombers vs Collingwood Magpies
Anzac Day Medal - Zach Merrett & Jack Crisp

What a game of football this is every year!

It is about more than just football and there is no better place to be than the MCG on Anzac Day.

There is no doubt that the Bombers have been disappointing so far in season 2022 but there is no better way to turn things around than against arguably their biggest rivals.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dons were to get up for this game but there is no way that I can tip them or bet on them.

Collingwood are short enough at $1.46 that I wouldn’t be backing them either so let’s find a little bit of value to end the round.